Gary Duncan: Economics Editor
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House prices have tumbled for a third month in a row, with the average home now worth £5,000 less since August after the property market’s worst run of losses for more than a decade. The figures increased pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates today.
Confirmation from Halifax, the biggest mortgage lender, that the housing downturn is rapidly gathering pace, and more warning signs that the economy faces a painful slowdown, sent the City scrambling to bet on the Bank cutting rates today.
Pressure on the Bank has escalated in recent days as mounting nervousness among big financial institutions has threatened a fresh seizure in the City’s money markets. London’s big banking groups have been hoarding cash, driving up commercial loan costs and inflicting fresh damage to an already faltering economy.
City hopes that the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will act this morning to ease these stresses with lower borrowing costs leapt yesterday after a “double whammy” of bleak news over next year’s prospects.
The Halifax figures showing that average house prices in November fell by 1.1% - the sharpest monthly slump in for almost a year – coincided with evidence that conditions in the services sector - the engine room of the economy - have weakened to their worst in four-and-a-half years as fearful consumers curb their spending habits.
On the stock market, bluechip shares charged upwards as expectations mounted of a quarter-point cut in base rates from their present six-year high of 5.75 per cent.
Any cut will be greeted with relief by homeowners. Last month’s fall in property prices came on the heels of a 0.7 per cent drop in October and a 0.6 per cent decline in September. It marked the first time since 1995 that prices have fallen for three consecutive months.
House price inflation has collapsed from the double-digit pace that homeowners have grown used to, to just 6.3 per cent last month, amid economists’ predictions that it will slide close to zero, if not into negative territory, with year-on-year falls in property values, in coming months.
Fears over a severe economic downturn next year were stoked by more grim developments in the services sector, which has driven Britain’s economic growth for the past decade.
Two key surveys suggested that the robust growth enjoyed by services businesses from cinemas and restaurant groups to accounting and legal firms is now in serious danger of stalling.
Overall activity for services companies fell for a third month in a row last month to its weakest since May 2003, a closely-watched survey indicated. It suggested that conditions were worst for hotels and restaurants, and for financial groups, with both sectors shrinking during November.
The latest indication of households cutting their spending came just a day after a poll from the Nationwide Building Society showed their confidence falling at its sharpest rate in more than three years.
Pressure on the pound in Britons’ pockets was highlighted again as the British Retail Consortium said that food prices leapt last month, rising at their sharpest rate this year.
With the Bank of England wrestling today with its nagging worries over persistent inflationary pressures, however, the BRC’s evidence of continuing price pressures at the shops will do little to ease its dilemma over interest rates, economists said.
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Fuel just goes up and up along with the price of food. For a Snickers bar is over 50p now. The money they make on fuel and food should equal out the cost of house prices going down. When and if there is a bust it will be our fair turn.
Jason, Bedford,
HIPS are not helping at all lets not push this aside, I for one do not want to pay £500 to £700 for something that we do not really need.
Jay, Newquay, Wales
"Pressure on Bank as house prices fall"
Why? Mervyn King is on record as saying the MPC did not set interest rate policy by reference to the housing market.
The latter should not be an issue at all, not unless the apparent 'pressure' on rates relates to a slowdown in consumer spending.
The latter, of course, is a nice euphemism for the willingness of consumers generally to continue increasing their indebtedness.
So, in spite of all the recent words of caution, increased levels of debt are probably going to be actively encouraged. Back to the future.
m collins, Leeds, England
I received yesterday my annual statement on an endowment I took out in 1994 which states that there are "significant risks of shortfall". Even though equity markets have soared, the projected returns at the end of the endowment are -31%, -15%, and +4% in relation to the target amount at 4%, 6%, and 8% projected growth. I have been told I have no ground for complaint.
While the BoE is supporting the investment decisions of buy-to-let investors so that they continue to enjoy huse returns on their money, could they throw a few billion to the likes of me so we don;t lose out as well please?
Alex Ritchie, Salisbury, UK
the banks jobs is to control inflation not house prices, isn't it a co-insidence that VI'S spout that house prices are falling just before the mpc meetings?, bring on the crash i say!
richard, ferndale, S.Wales
I've moved all my cash out of sterling, bring on the rate cuts it's not going to change the course of the end of the 18 year land price cycle. Anyone speculating on property in light of this rate cut is akin to the man picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
john, reigate,
huge house prices mean huge amounts of earnings going strait to banks, to believe low interest rate fueled the boom is to believe marshions have landed, the buy to let, and the obscene bonuses have achieved a virtual housing market, the government has to manage the homes market, and the rental business in separate ways. Labour under Browns management have lost all direction with regards protecting the consumer from exploitation by property industry.The bank of england is now the landlord from hell with the ability to turn hard working families out onto the street, brown's job is to live in the real world, not the virtual world of contrived inflation numbers.
michael joseph heavey, cahersiveen>adams towns, madness
dont bean counters, banks and analyst come out with some rubbish?. no wonder the worlds in a mess. people making lots of money and doing nothing productive. the comment that the house has lost 5.000 of its value. silly me, i thought that the value of an item was what someone was prepared to pay for it and could go down, as well as up, at any given time
stephen baron, leith, tasmania
Although the coments about lags and leads is correct (inertia in the market due to inperfect information avaliable) the BOE has to respond to Inflation (that is its remit rather than the economy as a whole) Inflation is currently threatening to rise, so that is what the BOE should respond to.
House prices have been subject to the whim of excess money credit, maybe now they can now be allowed to normalise.
Ben, folkestone, uk
There is no valid reasoning supporting the theory a fall in property prices will lead to recession, job losses etc. House prices are only numbers on a piece of paper and mean nothing. This is a bogus economics concept communicated by greedy buy-to-let investors scared about losing the 200% returns made over the past few years. A fall in prices, even limited to 10% will simply re-distribute ownership from investors to home-buyers and allocate more funds into the economy as property investors re-allocate. With houses more affordable the building and real estate markets will not collapse and no-one will lose their jobs.
Daryl, London,
The property lobby are hoping that a cut in rates will reinflate the bubble just like in 2005. Then they will truly be able to claim that property prices only ever rise.......it is already incredible how many intelligent people already believe that.
Davie P, London,
Glad to hear to hear some from the Bank of England, about time!!!
John, London,
Agree with you Chris.
House prices are going down regardless of tinkering.
If the MPC starts cutting rates now what is it going to do when house prices drop 5%, 10%, or even the 40% over valuation re-adjustment as claimed by the IMF?
They going to start paying us to borrow money?
Dan , London, UK
How can a yearly house price increase of 6.3% (abt twice the rate of inflation) can be called a house fall? Why is there expectation that BoE is there to support completely unrealistic asset price bubbles?
A wake up call is in order.
Emma, London,
Why have I never seen in the past "pressure on bank as house prices rise". Double standards as always.Vested interests talking.Truly pathetic. I feel sick at heart.
.
What hope has the UK got when there is a bunch of incompetents at the helm,running a housing based economy.,scared stiff if there is a healthy retreat in prices.
I hope the MPC has the courage not to cut,it will mean future larger problems and imported inflation.Problem is everyone in authority is only interested in the short term,but inflation will be the worry next year.
nic, royan, france
When will Gordon Brown finally admit that his "economic miracle" is a sham and this period of "growth" has been financed entirely on massive levels of debt that many people will never be able to repay. The story of the emporors new clothes bares much similarity. To say the futre looks bleak is an understatement.
Ben Parrish, Stockport, UK
all the time house prices were going up at breakneck speed, all the bank of england ever said was it was responsible for inflation not house prices and continued to cut rates. now house prices fall 5000 pounds ( big deal ) and the bank of england wants to cut rates. inflation for food, gas and oil is still going up.
michael, london, england
Why is house price inflation not counted as inflation and does not prompt rises in interest rates whereas minimalist houst price deflation leads almost directly to interest rate cuts?
Alfred, Ryde, Isle of Wight
House prices drive the economy, sustained falls will usher in a period of austerity for all.
Anyone who believes huge falls in property will help first time buyers is in denial. Huge falls in property will mean most first time buyers are out of work, claiming benefits, and owning a house will be out of reach for years.
We should be hoping for a soft landing, with flat growth (declining real values) over the next decade. This will improve the picture for everyone and not lead us to panic
martin howell, Cromer, UK
Houses are for living in - not a means for getting rich.
Tim, Bangkok, Thailand
The plight of the millions of savers who have been earning peanuts for all that they have saved seemed to matter little for the mainstream media who have joined the bandwagon in their clamour for reduced interest rates. Let the housing market collapse. Atleast first time buyers will have chance albeit at the cost of greedy speculators.
abhi, london,
People have been spending money they don't have for years and now they are being asked to pay for it.
It will take many more months of price falls before young people without rich parents can afford a house or flat to live in. Perhaps now those with more houses than they need will start to sell them and free up the market a bit.
PR, Cwll,
The gestation period for the full effects of an interest cut or increase to be felt by the average consumer is about the same as having a baby. Economists, I think, call it leads and lags.
Mervyn King's own prognosis of the economy in nine months time suggests that economic activity next August will be sharply lower. Stagflation was the result of an inflexible labour market- not really a concern today.
Half a point please.
fred keeling, Almunecar, Granada Spain
I thought we lived in a market economy! House prices go up as well as down. That is life. Given the fact that house prices have doubled in the last five years, the decline in house prices now is a welcome relief to many. The BOE remit is to tackle inflation, not jump to the tune of BTL and morgage providers.
Chris , Northampton,