David Budworth
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FEARS are growing that an overhaul of the tax rules for buy-to-let investors and second-home owners could lead to a surge of selling in April, sending precarious property prices tumbling.
An estimated 650,000 people with buy-to-lets and second homes will see their tax bill fall significantly if the government’s plan to introduce a flat 18% capital-gains tax (CGT) gets the green light.
Although the government is expected to tweak its tax plans in the new year in response to fierce lobbying by business leaders, the proposals for property owners are expected to remain unchanged.
Second-home and buy-to-let owners will save an average of more than £6,000 by selling under the new regime as their lowest CGT rate drops from 24% to 18%.
This has sparked concerns that some landlords, struggling to cover borrowing costs and worried about falling house prices, will rush to sell when the more attractive tax regime takes effect. This could spell trouble at a time when the housing market is expected to be exceedingly weak.
Steve Smith at Andersen Charnley, a wealth manager, said: “The government’s intention to reduce CGT could cause a false market in which fewer buy-to-lets are marketed before April but then there is a rush to sell.
“It is the flipside of 1988, when a false market was created by [chancellor] Nigel Lawson’s decision to end tax relief on mortgage interest. This led to a rush to buy homes before the perk was scrapped and resulted in the property crash.” Estate agents have reported more landlords running into trouble because they can’t find tenants, or because interest-rate rises mean their rental income no longer covers their mortgage repayments.
The average rental yield – the rent expressed as a percentage of the value of the property – has slumped to just 3% after tax. This means many are losing money once mortgage payments and maintenance costs are taken into account.
Until recently, property investors were willing to shoulder these costs because they expected to make money from capital growth. But with the housing market looking shaky thousands are believed to be looking to exit the market.
Simon Rubinsohn, economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said: “I don’t think we are on the edge of a complete bailout, but some landlords are looking to sell. We could see a pickup in properties coming to the market in April, although I think most buy-to-let investors are still committed for the long term.” If you need to sell, you could defer paying CGT at the higher rate in force now by rolling profits into an enterprise investment scheme (EIS).
The CGT must be paid eventually, but if you sell your EIS shares over several years, using your CGT allowance each time, you may be able to avoid the tax or at least get the lower rate.
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Interesting comments here.
Speaking as a potential first time buyer, there is a school of thought that says we will "save the day" with our deposits when prices start to fall. "pent up demand" as its described.
Unfortunately, we aren't stupid, and most will happily sit on their deposits until prices fall to a reasonable level. Why would I want to see my hard earned deposit eroded or disappear in a falling market?
Lets not confuse people who want to buy their house to live in, who are forced to take a long term view (ie me), with the BTL brigade who only see ££ flashing before their eyes.
Therefore Ewan, I hate to say that you are wrong. The whole housing market has been built on shorterm profiteering, without much of a care or thought for an exit strategy for most BTL's, as House Prices "always go up" don't they?
Speculatation in any market always causes bubbles (see dotcom / Asia crisis in 1998), and they always deflate when the initial incentive to invest has gone.
Matthew, Birmingham,
Having endured 10 years of smug people as house prices rise at the expense of young people in general and first time buyers in particular, I cannot tell you how delighted I am to see prices falling at last!
So to everyone, who has enjoyed regaling all who will listen with the tales of their increasing equity / wealth / ability to borrow even more / plans to retire abroad etc etc - I hope you know appreciate that this was at someones expense....
Being one of those someones, all I can say is see you at the bottom - my deposit is ready and I will have a big smile. Maybe I will gazunder one of the smug people if it gets really bad? A lot of bad feeling has been generated by 10 years of smug people, so I just mught make it worse for them.
P.S. Derek - if a law change is brought in with 6 months notice, then just deal with it, don't whinge. As per above, I am really happy for you that your 10 year long view will generate a big profit for you. Now just cash in and stop whingeing!
Adrian, London, UK
It does not follow that there will be a surge in the sale of properties after the April CGT changes. Firstly there would need to be a similar number of prospective purchasers, which there won't be due to the current credit squeeze. And secondly who, other than speculators in the BTL sector, would be tempted to buy property in a falling housing market.
Pip, Sutton, UK
Has the whole world gone daft?The proposed changes to CGT will hugely increase the cost to basic rate taxpayers to the benefit of higher rate earners.Taking taper relief(to be abolished)into account my tax bill will increase from 8% to 18% on any taxable profit. I have been taking the long view for the last 10 years with taper relief in mind,now at a `stroke all benefit is lost. Gorden Brown destroyed pensions in this country now he may well have damaged any vital enterprise .
derek, nottingham, uk
There can only be a decline in prospect for the prices of most property now. Some of the few positive reasons for buying are a continued shortage and the hope that many prospective sellers may persuade themselves that if they hang on for a little longer prices may continue their upward momentum. But there are always going to be people who have to sell because of finance or job moves and the hoped for escalation of house building is many years away yet. You also now have the prospect of most first time buyers sitting on their deposits, watching mesmerised as prices continue to fall. As the months go by it is going to be harder and harder for these lucky people to plunge in and make the largest purchase of their lives in the knowledge at the back of their minds that prices could slide further. This market has a long way to fall.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
This can only be good news for people in this country who have been forced out of the property market by prospectors.
The explosive unregulated growth in BTL investment has inflicted the most damage on UK society in a generation. When people have the opportunity to own their own home then communities are able to flourish. When investors buy up large percentages of property in a particular area and scoop over inflated rents from tenants then communities are effectively destroyed. Landlords add nothing, neither morally, socially, or financially to the areas in which they invest.
Why hasnât the government introduced substantial tax increases on rental income?
Alan, Inverness,
FLip it over, buying an investment property may now look better due to the CGT being lowered. Those who take the long view will realise the longer they keep the property, the more CGT they will avoid.
ewan, sherborne,
I think after the new year there shall be a mass of these propertys coming onto the market, everyone will want to get rid a.s.a.p. so might not wait till April. This may then have a big impact on the rest of the property market.Good times never last..
john, moray,
I suspect that the market will be flooded with BTLs long before April. Given that it takes time to sell property, the "smart" sellers will aim to get properties to market a month or two earlier, in an effort to beat the pack of "not so smart" sellers who they believe will wait until the rules actually change. Of course, if everybody acts this way the glut will be in place well before April 1st and so further price falls are likely even before the deadline. Scary times!
dominic wise, ealing, london