Judith Heywood, Deputy Property Editor
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Prices at the higher end of London’s property market, thought to have been largely immune to recent ructions in the wider industry, have suffered their first quarterly decline since 2003.
Savills, the estate agent, has revealed that the price of prime property – that valued at more than £1 million – had fallen by 2 per cent in the last three months of 2007.
The absence of a spending spree by those earning large City bonuses has been blamed for the poor quarterly performance across the prime London market.
Last year, £5.5 billion of the £8.8 billion City bonus pot was poured into homes. This year Savills thinks that only £2 billion, from a total fund of £7 billion, will find its way into the property market.
Lucian Cook, a director of research at Savills, said that the fall in prices had occurred progressively over the final three months of 2007 “as the full implications of the credit crunch have become apparent. The market has been influenced by City bonus expectations and the outlook for job security in the financial sector.”
Mr Cook said that the prices were holding up better than expected: “This small fall comes as no surprise. We anticipated a fall of 3 per cent in the final quarter of the year, in expectation that the market would react in a similar manner to previous financial shocks.”
Confidence has suffered particularly among buy-to-let investors and Savills believes that bonus cash will be spent largely on primary residences. Mr Cook said: “Like a second home, an investment property is the ultimate discretionary spend.”
Those owners who invested in substantial homes in good Central London locations will take comfort that, despite the late declines, prime property prices were up 16.3 per cent on last year. Mr Cook said that values in areas of southwest London, such as Fulham, Barnes, Putney, Wandsworth and Richmond, where much City cash has been spent in the past year, had proved resilient. Prices rose 0.6 per cent in the last quarter.
Neil Chegwidden, head of research at Cluttons, the estate agent, said that the decline across Central London of 1.3 per cent was “the greatest quarterly fall since the start of the Iraq war in early 2003”.
Savills expects that prime Central London property will recover, to increase by 5 per cent this year. Knight Frank thinks that prime property will slightly outperform the rest of London, which it tips to grow by 3 per cent this year.
Savills said that price growth for super-prime homes, worth £5 million or more and typically in locations such as Mayfair, Kensington and Belgravia, was now at 2.5 per cent, down from 13.7 per cent a year ago.
Super-prime remains the most resilient part of the property market, the agent said, yet the annual rate of growth is now at only 29 per cent, down from 50.16 per cent a year ago.
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do you get a free knife, coz london so dangerous to live in ?
jason, london,
Once again the London estate agents are talking their own book.
Lets see just how well they have done when they release their results.
Methinks those chesire cat grin days are over.
Let's face it,the London agents caused the bubble in the first place.
London prices are at least 40 percent over valued.
James, Marbella, Spain
Commercial property shares are pricing in a fall in commercial property values of about 20%. Are we to believe that, for the first time in history, residential values will continue to rise whilst the price of other assets falls due to the higher cost of obtaining finance?
michael clarke, kensington, uk
Well Savill's have a vested interest in keeping the (now failing) property market afloat - of course they say it's going to rise by 5% - trouble is, they're the only ones who now believe it.
Does anyone really still believe that the rampant house price inflation we've seen in most of the UK over the past 10 years is a good thing, when the under 30s are now struggling to get on the ladder.
The crash can't come soon enough!
Nina, London,
There is nothing special about the London Market to keep it up where the rest of the country falls. Its only special interest groups talking the market up to protect their investments. There is only so many Russian Billionaires to go around. :-)
Gavin, London,
All the props that have been keeping the property market so boyant are now disapearing. As BTL investors bail out to take advantage of the favourable capital gains tax after April and the pull of demand from the top of the market has disappeared as many in the finance industry not only fail to get their bonuses but also actualy loose their jobs. Even if you ignore these factors, there is the report from Professor Wilcox of York University that rents were only two thirds of the cost of a 100% mortgage in 2006. That fractiuon will of course have widened in 2007. It is not so suprising that industry sources will not actualy utter the words 'price falls' but that is what will happen. And not before time too.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
house prices are sinking.... and I am having a laugh!
this is a great start for 2008!
enjoy the crash.....
riccardo, brussels,
More to the point, what about the prospects for off-plan apartments in, I don't know, oh, say, Dalston?
J Brooks, Tunbridge Wells, Cuckoo Land
Asking prices almost always drop in the autumn, as owners twig that spring/summer valuations may have been over-optimistic and that, if they want to sell, they have to 'get real'. Wherever youy are in the world, a property is worth whatever someone will pay for it - not what an agent wants to believe
Colin Mackenzie, Heathfield, Sussex
Peter Brown - I agree. But like all estate agents, the market is always going up. Until it isn't.
samtam, Bangkok, Thailand
So Savills are expecting the London property market to grow by 3% this year - do they really live on this planet?
Peter Brown, London SW 15,