Judith Heywood, Deputy Property Editor and Gary Duncan
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Mortgage approvals fell for the fifth consecutive month in November, tumbling
to a three-year low as demand from new homebuyers continued to decline.
In the latest symptom of rapidly cooling conditions in the once-booming
housing market, Bank of England figures showed that the overall number of
new home loans agreed, including those for remortgaging, had plunged by 26
per cent from a year earlier to 238,000.
Mortgages for house purchase, a key indicator of the health of the housing
market, fell even more sharply, dropping by 37 per cent from levels a year
earlier to only 83,000 – the lowest figure since January 2005.
Economists noted that this left the number of loans agreed for house purchase
only 6,000 above lows plumbed in November 2004, and dangerously close to
levels that in the past have been associated with year-on-year declines in
house prices.
“This is further evidence of a sharp downturn in activity in the housing
market,” Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institute of
Chartered Surveyors, said. “We expect buyer interest to remain flat over the
coming months as concerns persist over the outlook both for the economy and,
more specifically, house prices.”
Gary Styles, economics director at Hometrack, the housing data group, said:
“Approvals are going to continue to move down gently in the coming months as
much of the adjustment has occurred, but we can expect this to lead to very
weak actual lending figures from banks from February or March.”
The downturn in the housing market since September has heightened speculation
that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will order further cuts
in interest rates, perhaps as soon as next week, after last month’s
quarter-point reduction. Pressure on the Bank to deliver a further cut in
borrowing costs was ratcheted up this week after its latest survey of credit
conditions showed that lenders had “reduced materially” the availability of
mortgages in the closing months of last year and planned to tighten lending
conditions still further.
Yesterday’s Bank data contained yet more evidence of a tougher climate for
would-be homebuyers seeking loans. The figures highlighted a sharp drop in
mortgage approvals by specialist lenders other than banks and building
societies. Such lenders have been an important prop for the housing market,
handing out loans to buy-to-let speculators as well as “sub-prime” borrowers
with poorer credit ratings.
The subdued lending figures came as the Nationwide Building Society, which
reported last week that average national house prices had fallen by 0.5 per
cent in December, said that its regional data confirmed a slowdown across
all UK regions.
The most dramatic slowdown was in Northern Ireland, where prices were rising
at an annual pace of 55 per cent in the first half of last year. A 0.2 per
cent drop in prices in the province during the final quarter of last year
cut annual house price inflation there to a still strong 24.2 per cent.
Prices fell by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter in Yorkshire, but all
other regions continued to show price gains.
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The BOE are boxed into a corner and there seems to be no way out.All the talk of house prices rising by another 40% in the next 5 years last July illustrates that the UK economy is run by poeple who havn't a clue what they are doing.Don't they look to the future and realise whats in store?It was obvious a NR was going to happen when you looked ahead.It was also obvious that no-one would bekeen to pay the BOE the £30 billion back.What do they get in return,£100 billion worth of debt?The money has to come from somewhere.I think the chancellor will have to tax the BTLs as they are the ones who have benefited most from this reckless lending.When people were taking on mortgages 5 or 6 times salary,wasn't it obvious that interest rates were going to have to go up at some point.People expect growth in the economy every year but as the country is of finite size,how is this possible without inflation?The answer is simple,it isn't.
Stephen Hulton, Eure, France
The Bank of England said they were not responsible for house prices, only inflation.
Increasing house prices were and still are inflation.
And if their original point was accurate and truthful, it is not their job to stop this correction after eight years of heinously inflated prices.
I am disgusted with the Bank of England, who represent the city and big business in its worst greedy aspect - they do not represent England.
Joe, Manchester,
I see, it's simple, every time the housing/consumer boom shows signs of faltering the Bank of England just lowers interest rates to stoke it up again. Of course they must know that there will be no adverse effects on the value of sterling or a hike in import prices as a result causing even higher inflation and the boom can continue forever. I always thought that one had to be very clever to sit on the MPC which must be well paid but now I realise that I could do the job if thats all there is to it, where do I apply.
mark, southampton, uk
What does meltdown mean?
65% as the London Evening Standard and the ECB said a few month's ago?
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
It does look like a real house price meltdown is about to occur.
If less money is being put into the system, then there is less mortgage funding available to keep house prices inflated. The sort of valuations that can be achieved on 7 or 8 times earnings become impossible.
My bet is on a 20% crash in the next 2 years. In my part of Surrey a spacious 4 bed house can range from about £700k to well over a million. I guess this means someone buying today could see the value of their purchase fall in value by somewhere between £140k and £200k by 2010.
Mike Livingstone, Kingswood, Surrey
The Bank of England will be unable to deliver the rate reductions because of massive inflationary pressures in the economy. And in any case, that approach only made things worse in the states. Oil at $100 a barrel, nPower hiking fuel costs by 17%....can you believe these figures? we are living in amazing times; economically speaking...... many people, including myself, saw this coming twelve months ago but commenting was the equivalent of social leprosy!
We have to all grin and bear this correction, there is no way of of this one and in the long run it will be a good thing.
Greed isn't good after all.
george, aylesbury,