Judith Heywood, Deputy Property Editor and Gary Duncan
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Mortgage approvals fell for the fifth consecutive month in November, tumbling
to a three-year low as demand from new homebuyers continued to decline.
In the latest symptom of rapidly cooling conditions in the once-booming
housing market, Bank of England figures showed that the overall number of
new home loans agreed, including those for remortgaging, had plunged by 26
per cent from a year earlier to 238,000.
Mortgages for house purchase, a key indicator of the health of the housing
market, fell even more sharply, dropping by 37 per cent from levels a year
earlier to only 83,000 – the lowest figure since January 2005.
Economists noted that this left the number of loans agreed for house purchase
only 6,000 above lows plumbed in November 2004, and dangerously close to
levels that in the past have been associated with year-on-year declines in
house prices.
“This is further evidence of a sharp downturn in activity in the housing
market,” Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institute of
Chartered Surveyors, said. “We expect buyer interest to remain flat over the
coming months as concerns persist over the outlook both for the economy and,
more specifically, house prices.”
Gary Styles, economics director at Hometrack, the housing data group, said:
“Approvals are going to continue to move down gently in the coming months as
much of the adjustment has occurred, but we can expect this to lead to very
weak actual lending figures from banks from February or March.”
The downturn in the housing market since September has heightened speculation
that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will order further cuts
in interest rates, perhaps as soon as next week, after last month’s
quarter-point reduction. Pressure on the Bank to deliver a further cut in
borrowing costs was ratcheted up this week after its latest survey of credit
conditions showed that lenders had “reduced materially” the availability of
mortgages in the closing months of last year and planned to tighten lending
conditions still further.
Yesterday’s Bank data contained yet more evidence of a tougher climate for
would-be homebuyers seeking loans. The figures highlighted a sharp drop in
mortgage approvals by specialist lenders other than banks and building
societies. Such lenders have been an important prop for the housing market,
handing out loans to buy-to-let speculators as well as “sub-prime” borrowers
with poorer credit ratings.
The subdued lending figures came as the Nationwide Building Society, which
reported last week that average national house prices had fallen by 0.5 per
cent in December, said that its regional data confirmed a slowdown across
all UK regions.
The most dramatic slowdown was in Northern Ireland, where prices were rising
at an annual pace of 55 per cent in the first half of last year. A 0.2 per
cent drop in prices in the province during the final quarter of last year
cut annual house price inflation there to a still strong 24.2 per cent.
Prices fell by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter in Yorkshire, but all
other regions continued to show price gains.
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