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The average home has lost £6,000 in value over the past six months in the latest sign that the housing market is on the brink of a major decline.
The number of new buyers being approved for a mortgage has fallen by nearly a half since this time last year amid fears that curbs on new home loans could drag down property prices even further. Prices have fallen for four consecutive months.
Figures published yesterday by Nationwide, the second-biggest mortgage lender, showed that house prices fell by 0.5 per cent in February, causing annual house-price growth to dip sharply to 2.7 per cent, down from 4.2 per cent in January. The value of the average house has fallen by more than £6,000 since September, Nationwide figures showed.
The Bank of England said yesterday that mortgages approved for new buyers had dropped by 40 per cent in January compared with January 2007. Just 74,000 loans were approved for buyers, the second-lowest figure in more than 12 years.
Experts sounded alarm that the tighter lending practices could exacerbate house-price falls as first-time buyers failed to get funds. Ray Boulger, of John Charcol, the mortgage broker, said: “The speed at which lenders are tightening their criteria and raising prices is frightening. Once it becomes impossible for most people to get a mortgage without a 10 per cent deposit, the first-time buyer market will freeze up, which will have a dangerous impact on the whole housing market and the wider economy.”
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, the economic analyst, said: “It seems highly likely that house market activity and prices will continue to be dampened markedly by the combination of stretched affordability and tighter lending practices.”
Many lenders are refusing to lend to buyers who do not have hefty deposits, as they strive to protect their margins in the wake of the credit crunch and struggle to obtain funding from the credit markets. Instead, they are cherrypicking only the most risk-free borrowers.
Yesterday, Cheltenham & Gloucester, a mortgage-lending arm of Lloyds TSB, said it would not offer home loan deals to buyers who did not have a 10 per cent deposit or who had not built up 10 per cent equity in their home. Alliance & Leicester and Britannia Building Society operate a similar policy. From Tuesday, Halifax, the biggest mortgage lender, will not lend to buyers who have not saved a 5 per cent deposit. Lenders are also increasing their mortgage rates. Halifax and Abbey will both announce new, higher mortgage rates next week.
Seema Shah, a property economist from Capital Economics, said: “It is clear that house price growth on all the main measures is on a steady downward trend. In our view, it is only a matter of time before house prices start falling year-on-year.”
Some estate agents sounded a gloomy note about the current housing market conditions.
Peter Wetherell, of Wetherells, a London estate agent, said: “The value is there but the volume isn’t. There is not a lot out there and there are also not a lot of people looking. In 2007 you could sell a secondary property for primary price but you can’t get away with it this year. Agents need to learn to sell again.”
There is evidence that homeowners’ worries about the housing market are already taking their toll. Consumer confidence plunged to a 13-year low last month, with many more people reporting serious concern about the economic conditions in the coming year, a survey by Gfk/NOP found.
Some economists said that while house prices could decrease, the current economic conditions did not suggest falls of a similar level to those in the early 1990s. During that period, house prices tumbled by 30 per cent after interest rates reached 15 per cent, leaving many homeowners in negative equity and causing hundreds of thousands to lose their homes.
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As a top notch economist I can tell quite surely that the house price will continue to fall and fall before the market corrects itself. From a long historical point of view one would be tempted to conclude that such prediction is not unfounded but proven over and over again, not to mention the past few episodes including the early 1990s. In my view, the present house price should fall to 50% before the market is considered to be reasonably correcting itself. Certainly, over the last few years house prices have ballooned to an unproportionate level beating all the European countries. The reasons are various, especially in London many Russian mafias have fuelled the house price with their unlimted available cash driving out normal buyers. The UK government should have been careful enough not to happens these things in this country.
E.M. Forster-Jones, Brighton, UK
If you review the Nationwide data closely, prices only need to remain static until April to have year on year falls.
How can anyone doubt that a crash is already in full swing?
Daniel Rees, London,
There can be little doubt we are going to see a house price crash somewhere between 20 and 35%.
Some parts of the Country, eg Surrey Heath (Camberley / Sunningdale area) have fallen 13% in one quarter alone from the land reg stats.
Those who want realise retirement dreams should sell now and probably aim about 15% below what they believe their home is worth or see other properties marketed at - unsold inventories are building up and sellers risk following the market downward increasing their own loses. It is better to make a bold cut now to get a sale than having to make 5 or 6 cuts of 5% over the course of year.
Mike Livingstone, Reigate, Surrey
Everyone agrees that the prices are too high and affordability amongst the young is very low. Therefore, it makes sense that prices drop. However, 6000 in six months is not a steep decline.
Hamad Lone, London, England
This is going to get a lot worse, mainly for people trying to sell at ludicrous prices. First time buyers may not fare well due to the prudent deposit requirements now called for by lenders.
As about 85% of our GNP is in services rather than manufacturing, the feel 'bad' factor will curb consumption and unemployment will rise, bringing further property back on to the market. And of course people are dying as usual, resulting in executors sales at almost any price to enable estates to be settled.
The good news is for the more serious first time buyers who are prepared to save for a couple of years; they will have smaller mortgages and lots of bargains to look at. Meantime rent! It is cheaper.
Clive, Bangkok,
To Ben Moss, London
You fail to grasp that the fundimentals have been turned on their heads.
Their is no more easy cheap credit available. Neither will there be in the future. That era is gone for good. The supply and demand fundimental doesnt stand up when people can't obtain sufficient finance to buy at current prices. You say to vendors, hold your nerve? There are thousands of properties still on the market from last summer - sometime soon the penny will drop that houses are overvalued. I suspect that estate agents will put pressure on owners to drop their unrealistic high valuations , and value houses at more realistic levels - remember that they need to sell property to remain in business.
Finally immigration. The Poles are going home - costs, employment prospects in the current downturn , exchange rates and quality of life are driving them away . In addition, other European countries are planning to open their doors to EU immigrants, further drying up the flow to UK.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
"My advise to owners is hold your nerve, be prepared to negotiate, but don't give your hard won money away needlessly. Yes the boom time is over, but SUPPLY and DEMAND are the fundamentals of trading. And we live in an overpopulated country with un controlled immigration. Be patient not panicky."
Good God. Are you for real? Sitting on your backside whilst a cheap credit fuelled bubble increased prices by 200% is hardly "hard won money", and your equity is the 25 year debt burden of first-time-buyers.
And supply and demand? You really have been conned by vested interests if you believe that.
Turnbull, Tynemouth, UK
As soon as Labour started to meddle in the housing this was enivitable. Watch jobs will be next because they meddled there.
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
Estate Agents may start talking prices *down* now simply to get a sale. After all, less commission is better than no commission at all and what could be worse for them than a stagnating market? Like the rest of us they do need an income to buy food and pay the bills.
Paul, Coventry,
@wayne, london,
Not a realistic outlook my friend. People simply won't sell at rock bottom prices unless they are desperate. The sellers will hold their nerve and await better times. The properties that will go for knock down prices are the bad ones that should not have been bought in the first place. The "Sub Prime" owners will fall by the wayside.. But..those of us who saved for a big deposit , and did not over commit on our level of borrowing can afford to sit it out.
My advise to owners is hold your nerve, be prepared to negotiate, but don't give your hard won money away needlessly. Yes the boom time is over, but SUPPLY and DEMAND are the fundamentals of trading. And we live in an overpopulated country with un controlled immigration. Be patient not panicky.
Ben Moss, London, England
This is just the tip of the iceberg. In the last crash I watched prices of some properties fall by 60% or more over a 5 year period. All through that time estate agents and other vested interests were trying to persuade me, and others, that the last monthly drop was it and now was the time to buy. It wasn't. In the end I held my nerve and bought a property in 1995 for half the price paid in 1988. My reward? I paid my mortgage off in half the time.
Clive, Chichester, UK
Anyone who is contemplating a purchase in the current climate needs to ensure that they negotiate a chunky discount.
It would be madness otherwise to buy at this time. Either wait and see or get a bargain.
Even if you are desperate to buy, hold your nerve, make a heavily discounted offer, wait a few days and then get the feedback with your best poker face.
Just remember - credit crunch means less money out there, fewer mortgages, non-dom tax grab means wealthy foreigners are fleeing the control in droves, lichenstein tax grab means rich even more wealthy foreigners and even some rich uk citizens are finding new places to settle. HMRC property tax grab means buy-to-let are thinking twice, excellent fixed rates accounts (ice/kaupthing) mean good short term homes for your cash.
Don't lose out by jumping into the property market too early!
wayne, london,
"The average home has lost £6,000 in value over the past six months"
£6,000?
Well, it's a good start.
Hopefully we'll see this very, very short trend continue and address the heinous and massive inflation we've seen over the last 10 years.
And to hell with the whinging of estate agents and other proft motivated business, which are merely vested capitalist interests while ordinary people are both strained and disgusted with ten years of house price inflation.
Bring it on, basically.
Joe, Manchester,
"During that period, house prices tumbled by 30 per cent after interest rates reached 15 per cent, leaving many homeowners in negative equity and causing hundreds of thousands to lose their homes."
The fear of the Bank of England, that they've sought to avoid for the last ten years.
But in doing so, they allowed a massive house price inflation I hope is starting to give those people sleepless nights, now at long last it appears to be reversing.
Joe, Manchester,
Markets don't do flat. Be prepared for a sharp drop in prices.
Bert, London,