Andrew Ellson
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Last week it was Halifax, and then it was Nationwide. This week it was Lloyds TSB, NatWest and then HSBC.
One by one, the country's biggest lenders, or their subsidiaries, have tightened the screws on borrowers by raising mortgage rates or withdrawing deals completely. And it was not only new customers who were hit, as NatWest increased its standard variable rate (SVR) for existing offset borrowers.
So how worried should we all be about these developments? Well, the vast majority of borrowers should not panic. Homeowners who have a good credit history and a reasonable amount of equity in their property should not have any trouble finding a loan when they come to remortgage.
But now for the bad news. Lendersare competing not to have the best deals. Why? Because they do not want to attract more customers than their wholesale borrowing, deposit taking or administration capacity will allow. This means that the cost of home loans is creeping gradually higher. First-time buyers with little or no deposit and borrowers who have a chequered credit history or little equity in their home face the biggest increase in rates because, with house prices now falling, lenders perceive them to be the greatest risk.
Sadly, there is little prospect of the mortgage market moving back in the favour of borrowers any time soon. Even if the Bank of England cuts interest rates next week, as many expect, it is unlikely to make much immediate difference to the cost of new loans because lenders use interbank rates to price mortgages, and these have soared in recent weeks. Banks are also keen to boost margins after a bruising few months.
Any borrower approaching the end of a deal and tempted to move to his or her lender's SVR until the market improves could be making an expensive error. For most borrowers there is still enough of a difference between the SVR and the best deals available to justify remortgaging.
There is, however, one bright spot among all this credit woe. Savers are spoilt for choice at the moment as the banks battle desperately for depositors' cash. That's great news for anyone looking to find a home for their savings on Isa deadline day.
Buyers must take extra care in such a fragile housing market
WITH conditions deteriorating in the mortgage market, the outlook for house prices looks increasingly bleak.
The less the banks are prepared to lend, and the higher the rates they are prepared to lend at, the less money there is swilling around to support prices. If prices start moving significantly lower, and there is increasing evidence that this is happening, fears over bad debt and negative equity will make the banks even more reluctant to lend. This, in turn, will mean that there is less money available to support prices and we may enter a destructive cycle that leads to a full-scale slump in property values.
To add a further dose of pessimism into the mix, falling prices can be self-perpetuating. If buyers start expecting significantly lower prices, they will delay making offers in the hope that they will be able to pick up a similar property for less money six months or a year down the line. This perfectly rational behaviour undermines demand, further reducing the ability of vendors to achieve the prices they want. Meanwhile, if prospective sellers also start expecting large price falls, they may all rush to the market to try to sell before it is too late. This causes a large increase in supply, depressing prices farther - exactly the toxic combination that has undermined the property market in America.
But while this worst-case scenario has become more likely, it is by no means a foregone conclusion. The Bank of England may lower the cost of borrowing soon. Although this is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the mortgage market, it should boost confidence. Also, while levels of employment remain high, demand should remain reasonably robust and there will not be enough forced sellers to undermine the market completely. But this is now a best-case scenario and those buying property at the moment should not expect to make money for a very long time. Never has the phrase “buyer beware” been more relevant.
How water companies justify the price rise is unfathomable
WITH water having fallen out of the skies with such enthusiasm over the past few months it is hard to fathom how it costs so much to get it to our taps. Yet water bills, which are already very expensive, are to rise by an inflation-busting 6 per cent this year.
Yes, there is a pressing need to repair old pipes, but these price rises look excessive. It is far from certain that the balance of responsibility for repairs, between shareholders and customers, has been distributed fairly. You only have to look at the share prices of water companies, which have performed well this year while the rest of the market has fallen, to see that these businesses are cash cows.
Sadly, consumers do not have much choice when it comes to water bills because they cannot switch supplier. The only way to save is to have a meter installed and conserve water. But it is not only on prices that customers suffer from the lack of competition. Anyone who has dealt with the water companies will know that customer service is a low priority. The state of the industry suggests that Ofwat, the regulator, is not doing as good a job as it should.
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