Analysis: Rebecca O’Connor
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If you ever need evidence that we have never had it so good, just ask an economist. Despite yesterday’s announcement that Britain has just experienced the biggest monthly drop in house prices for 17 years, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, rejected the notion that things are as bad now as they were in the early Nineties.
This time around, she said, fewer homeowners bought at the top of the cycle, homebuyers have put down bigger deposits and more are now repaying the capital of their loans rather than just the interest. Consequently, there will be fewer repossessions.
However, while this may suggest that fewer homeowners will be forced to sell up, it does not follow that the fall in prices is likely to be less damaging. It could be just as damaging, but in different ways.
The pattern of decline then compared to now does suggest that this downturn might not be as pronounced. Broadly speaking, the boom that preceded the bust of the early Nineties was shorter and led to a much bigger percentage increase in house prices than we have seen in the run-up to this downturn. Average house prices rose by 41 per cent between the end of 1987 and the third quarter of 1989, from £44,355 to £62,782, according to Nationwide. Then began a 3½year decline that lasted until the first quarter of 1993, bringing the average house price back down to £50,128 and wiping out 70 per cent of the original gain.
Before the most recent decline, however, prices rose from the end of 2004 until the third quarter of 2007 by a much less dramatic 21 per cent, from £152,464 to £184,131. Although this might back up the argument that we should look on the bright side, analysts say that the scenarios are not really comparable.
In the early Nineties, it was a sudden surge in interest rates to about 15 per cent that forced many homeowners to give up their properties. This time it is almost entirely down to the mortgage drought that has persisted since banks stopped lending to each other after the US sub-prime crisis. There are 45 per cent fewer mortgages available now than there were in February. Because the credit crunch is unprecedented we have no way of knowing how the mortgage market, and consequently house prices, are likely to respond. Despite the widely-acknowledged boom, bust cycle, there is a view that while a pattern may look similar to one that has gone before, the causes will be different. While this inevitably leads to the assumption that next time will be better, it is always possible it could yet be worse.
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Northern Rock aka the Govt. is sacking the Lenders and doubling the Debt collectors......that speaks volumes more than the self interested "experts"
R James, Clifton, uk
The consensus is that we are in deep doodoo! Reality is:-
£900bn public pension liabilities
£200bn PFI to pay for
Annual £50bn budget deficit
£1400bn private debt
£600bn public debt
Record balance of payments deficit
Weak sterling depreciating
WE NOW NEED A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
Overall house prices go up and there will be some peaks and troughs along the way. In fact it is just the cycle and if you bought at the peak in the last couple of years hopefully you might want to live in the home and hold onto it for five years when we'll see our next boom!
Andrew , London ,
Along with other commentators, I have been stating repeatedly that this is not a repeat of the 90s or 70s. It's the back to the Golden Oldie phase of the 30s.
Mathew Maavak, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
No this crash will be worse than the ninties! Prices have bubbled on the back of cheap credit and realtively benign economic conditions (again backed by cheap credit). Now house prices are completely out of kilter with reality the consumer is being squeezed and debt is in shorter supply
david barker, eastbourne,
I do love the expert writing the article!
Its worse and it will get worse, please put away the tarot cards and the crystal ball.
Andy Murray, reading, uk
I concur with Paul from Coventry. The recent property price boom was many times bigger and more out of control than the previous one so am predicting an even more spectacular correction. Astonishing that Ms Barker, the 'property expert' and the MPC haven't learnt anything from recent history...
cww, suffolk,
It's certainly is not the 90s again - this time it will be worse due to the massive surge in speculative investment into housing, unparalelled in any previous boom. But let the analysts stick their fingers in their ears in denial: I for one will be keeping my money out of housing and in the bank.
MB, Edinburgh,
Fionnuala, who should and does know better, is whistling in the dark. We need at once higher and lower interest rates. Either way house prices fall and defaults and repossessions rise. Banks, building societies and Treasury politicians have dropped us into a mire we won't escape painlessly..
Noel Falconer MEcon, Couiza, France
If you believe this "analysis", you'll believe anything. Rebecca, I'm amazed.
Davey, Epsom, UK
Ms Earley is maybe not the right person to get an unbiased view from.
180% price inflation in 10 years is also not comparable with the 90's episode.
Affordability - the new mantra - was based on longer term mortgages and lower rates.
Face it the binge is so over. Let's bite the bullet.
Tom Taylor-Duxbury, Ludlow, UK
Indeed it is not a repeat of the nineties, it is a repeat of the thirties.
Paul, Claygate,
ok so no one knows what will happen, analysts are guessing and suggesting they are somehow qualified to guess better than anyone ,despite their failure to predict the housing boom at any time in the last decade. This column will be full of opinions all day but it's all ifs and buts
mark connelly, surbiton, surrey
Why dont you tell us the parallels with america?
hunter davies, London, uk
The UK economy is in serious trouble, the signs are far worse than in 1992. If it is no worse than 1992 we wil be very very lucky.
michael clarke, Windsor,
Yes, it is different this time because the bubble is BIGGER!
Paul, Coventry,
Not the best analysis. It seeks to compare a 2 year 80s boom with 2 years of a 7 year noughties boom. It would be more accurate to compare the overall price expansions that were dramatically year-on-year in excess of earnings growth and other inflation - 87-89 with 01-08, but also more frightening
Colm MacKernan, Washington/London, UK/USA
The big difference between the 90s crash and now is the disparity between incomes and the average mortgage. In 90s this was a modest 2.5 times average salary, now it is 5-6 sometimes10 times. Although interest rates are nothing like the 15% back then, even a very small increase could be crippling.
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon
Only partly true. The availability of easy (sloppy?) credit over the last few years is another factor in this problem. Margins are so tight for so many that small upward shifts in rates, combined with rising domestic costs are squeezing household finances.
Please look at the wider picture.
Drew, London,
Anyone who thinks that this will be a repeat of the 90's is dreaming.It will be far worse,do the sums and face reality.
stephen hulton, eure, france
I could be wrong but it seems that in order to increase liquidity, insitituions (including countries in the form of bonds) need to sell debt. No one is buying debt because the risk of default is too high in this unprecedented times. There is no more liquidity period. Big trouble is coming.
Chris Curtis, Auckland, New Zealand