Gráinne Gilmore, Economics Correspondent
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Mortgage lending slumped to a new low last month, raising fears that the slowdown in the housing market could be sharper than expected.
The number of home loans, seen as a key barometer of future conditions in the housing market, fell to a record low of just 58,000 in April, down from 64,000 in March and 113,000 in April last year. This is the lowest figure since records began in 1993.
The dire state of the mortgage market was highlighted further by Bradford & Bingley, Britain’s biggest buy-to-let lender, which reported a sharp rise in the number of borrowers in arrears.
The bank, which issued a profit warning after raising emergency funding by selling part of its business, said that the number of borrowers who had missed three or more monthly payments jumped by 36 per cent between the end of December and the end of April.
Bradford & Bingley’s travails will be a further blow to landlords. All mortgage rates have spiralled recently as lenders strive to protect their income during the credit crunch.
Nationwide will increase its fixed rates today for all borrowers by up to 0.3 per cent. Some experts say that Bradford & Bingley may seek to boost its coffers by increasing its rates still further.
Jonathan Cornell, of the mortgage broker Hamptons Mortgages, said: “If Bradford & Bingley raises its rates, other lenders will have to raise their rates too, otherwise they will be besieged by applications, something which lenders are keen to avoid while funding is short.”
Specialist lenders have struggled as their method of raising funding — packaging up bundles of mortgage loans and selling them on to other investors — stalled after the US sub-prime crisis. Banks became wary of lending to each other and, as a result, they were unable to fund new deals.
Mr Cornell said that several specialist lenders, who offered buy-to-let deals, including Edeus, Advantage and DB Mortgages, had already withdrawn from the market, and Paragon, the third-biggest lender, was sitting on the sidelines.
Landlords are already facing a sharp rise in repayments. A borrower with a £200,000 loan, switching from a deal fixed at 5.45 per cent to one at 6.45 per cent, will have to find nearly £200 more a month to cover the repayments.
There are about one million buy-to-let borrowers in Britain but the sector has been hit by falling prices in recent months. Prices of city centre flats, popular among investors, have slipped faster than other types of property since house prices began to fall.
The proportion of buy-to-let mortgages repossessed in the first three months of the year more than doubled from 0.7 per cent in the first three months of last year.
John Postlethwaite, of Punter Southall Financial Management, an independent financial adviser, said: “Private landlords in this situation are faced with a stark choice.
“To remortgage they will have to increase the rent . . . which may not be practical. Alternatively, subsidise the new payments with the existing lender . . . which may not be affordable. Or sell the property.”
Any increase in forced sales would act as a further drag on house prices, experts say. House prices have already fallen by nearly 7 per cent since the market turned in October, pushing thousands of borrowers into negative equity.
Tenants are also likely to feel the pain if mortgage rates continue to spiral. The cost of renting a home has already risen by 6.15 per cent in the past 12 months, according to a recent survey conducted for The Times.
Analysts gave a warning last night that increased housing costs for homeowners and tenants, coupled with rising utility and food bills, could spark a rise in the number of households struggling with bad debts, which in turn could lead to a greater scarcity of mortgage deals.
Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, an economic consultancy, said: “It will not be long before debt problems become far more widespread . . . While those struggling to repay their debt will probably cut back their spending, rising defaults are [also] likely to make lenders more cautious about extending new credit.”
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, an economics consultancy, said: “Ongoing very low housing market activity seems certain to feed through to further depress house prices.
“We see extended downward pressure on house prices coming from serious buyer affordability constraints, limited and often more expensive mortgages available due to ongoing tight lending conditions, a deteriorating economic outlook and reduced prospects for further interest rate cuts in the near term at least.”
According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), three-month arrears on buy-to-let mortgages increased slightly across all banks in the first quarter of 2008 to 0.9 per cent of loans, compared with 0.73 at the end of last year. A spokeswoman for the CML said that banks had all been expecting a slight increase in bad debts. “Demand is still strong and the buy-to-let market is counter-cyclical, as when people don’t want to buy, they want to rent,” she said.
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some people need to move house - we are running out of space - because we were cautious and didn't overstretch - so much so that we paid off our mortgage.
however we can't sell our house, even though its redcued. i know prices will not go up for ages, but we need somewhere bigger to live now!
eve, London,
Nice..but wrong is Ed. It's NEW mortgage approvals(re-mortgages increased from 98,000 in March to 106,000).Those stating prices can only go down & stay there=the flip side of those morons who've said prices can only go up! Those who can see prices 10yrs fwd bought lots 11 ago, right? Thought so!
Robin, Hassocks,
There were numerous occasions during the past decade when the BoE could have allowed the housing bubble to gently deflate, then fewer would have taken on ridiculous levels of debt to buy a home and BTL speculation would have been non-existent. It is now too late, the bubble has burst.
Paul, Coventry,
It's funny how you gloaters revel in other peoples' misfortune.
I bought off plan with 50% deposit. Young couple opposite paid 15k more, same house, no deposit and a baby due.
They paid the market value, what else could they do? In 5 years, I'll still be here. Where will they be?
It's sickening!
Darren Ward, Manchester, UK
Everyone acts like this is the end of the world with silly comments like "prices will never return to 2007 levels", if thats your view don't ever buy because you clearly know nothing about the property market. Prices go up AND down in cycles, if you know what your doing now is a great time to buy.
kevinq, sleaford,
BTLs are dreaming if they think that they can suddenly raise rents to cover the increasing cost of their mortgages. The cost of renting privately is already rediculously high. People will share houses with friends, live with relatives etc. There is just not the money out there to pay for all of this
Chris, Chipping Norton,
Ed, Harrogate, Yorkshire
Nice, well spotted, could someone out there confirm if Ed is right please.
shane, blackburn, england
Blame the government, FSA, and mortgage companies. All allowed the lending of ridiculous sums with no security. All of the housing bubble was built on greed, if they had kept lending within limits, we would not be having this problem now. People should sell if they can, things will only get worse.
Harvey, Bangkok, Thailand
The tide will go out and some will be left stranded...but many will be left with sound long term investments. The sound of the jealous who pile in to gloat, I find nauseating. Schadenfreude is a wonderful thing isn't it!
Peter, London, UK
Buy to let is reminescent of Victorian times when the aristocracy, landlords and rentiers owned vast swathes of poor quality housing which the working class of the day were compelled to rent. The rise of the Trade Union movement and the Labour Party were supposed to end this state of affairs.
Alan, Amersham,
I will bet that everyone here is still renting. Understand the economics. Supply and demand. If you buy a home and intend on owning it for 5+ years it is irrelevant what prices do now because over time inflation devalues money and you sit with a fixed debt.
adam, london,
Dave Henry in Camberley, last time I checked there were plenty of houses to buy and rent all over the country so why has this myth of a housing shortage still got legs? The rising cost of living means people have no extra money to give to landlords. Only the stupid and the greedy LL's will suffer.
Edward, London,
To Ed Harrogate:
The reason I am buying ahouse is because I need a home - not an investment.
Also, people are still buying brand new cars, yet no one seems to mind that a 30k car is worth 15k in less than 3 years. not much point 'making money' on your house if you spend it on a car!
Sebastian Cargutt, Leeds,
This is typical of the present government having overborrowed & encouraged the population to do the same.The tax payers will end- up picking up the tab for this folly.Bring on a "CRASH" in order for those who saved & scrimped to take advantage & make some serious money again(the new Fat cats).
Eddie Bornman, Sevenoaks, U.K.
a lot of people have made highly leveraged investments in a highly illiquid asset class on the basis that prices only rise.
that doesn't take 'nerve' and 'gumption'... it just takes greed and/or stupidity.
Hugh, London,
The principal probelm here lies with the extraordinarily greedy developers and property brokers, who ripped off everyone (including lenders) with inflated prices and rent promises, whilst using any loophole possible to under-deliver on the quality front.
Poorly regulated and richly rewarded.
William Tapley, London, UK
Why do you doom mongers cheer people's downfall? You sad little people. Will you cheer the tens of thousands of job losses that would be the trigger for a 40-50% drop in house prices. Be careful what you wish for - it could be your job that gets cut - that is of course if you have one.
David, Chester, UK
So much misinformation in these comments it's laughable. Even the solicitors are getting in on the act - 50% rent falls! Where exactly?
phil, harrogate,
What're worse are the smug, jealous and ever-so-satisfied whingers who never had the nerve or the gumption to get off their backsides and take a chance on something like a property investment can sit around (as ever) and preach to those who did.
You are what's wrong with Britain, today.
Spineless.
William Tapley, London, UK
Greed is good, Gecko once said. I think this is a similar sentiment to Make Hay whilst the sun shines.
The suns gone in, deal with it, tighten up, plan your budget, stick to it, it will not last forever, the strong will survive. So toughen up.
Rebecca Tito, N'ton, UK
No, no, no.... don't forget the 'great housing shortage' issue.
You know it's true, just look at all the homeless people cluttering up all our streets.
House prices always rise!
Alex, Salisbury, UK
"All the other banks having to raise their rates to deter borrowers" if B&B put their rates up.
Great PR spin that!
The other mortgage lenders would also be doing it for the same reason that B&B would be...To widen their spread and rake in the cash!!
It is all quite perverse.
David Diggins, Derby., England
"...buy-to-let market is counter-cyclical"
BTL is not one-dimensional. Those seeking quick profit, with no financial cover, will struggle - tough! Those with financial liquidity will profit from falling prices and can charge a lower rent as a consequence. We need a strong rental market.
Lou, London, UK
I'm glad I got out of the housing market and into oil and emerging markets in 2006, I'd hate to be trying to sell 13 houses and apartments right now. The hassle of having to accept an offer 20% below what you could have got if you weren't so greedy and stupid must really be weighing on some people.
Justin, Barcelona, Spain
I weep for BTL boys for they're going to be juiced,
But I love the sound of chickens when they're coming home to roost.
Tony Peterson, Kendal,
Those of you who think Ed of Harrogate is talking nonsense live in cloud cuckoo land.He however lives in a town where some property values have ALREADY fallen by 25% and still won't sell. Attitudes have changed. We're sick of the scam.10 years is optimistic.We may never ALLOW prices to rise again.
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
To remortgage they will have to increase the rent . . . which may not be practical."
..Showing how naive many were about the 'market' (where rents have actually fallen 50% in the last few years) and property law (which allows rent increases to be referenced to the Rent Assessment Tribunal)
Alistairs Solicitors, Bristol, UK
Why does the VI at the CML still keep uttering the property mantra. BTL as an investment is not currently a good idea. Anyway is it not about time the government looked at extending tenants rights to drive out the cowboys?
david barker, eastbourne,
I'm inclined to Padraig's view but I'm sure we'll hear plenty of nonsense from the likes of Ed, Harrogate - funny that someone who thinks they can see the future 10 years hence is also surprised at what's happening now :=) "Experts" going up, "crystal gazers" going down!
Robin, Hassocks,
Demand is still strong and the buy-to-let market is counter-cyclical, as when people dont want to buy, they want to rent, Like when a landlord can push up the rent by a couple of hundred quid a month while losing a couple of thousand a month in value on the same property. Pure spin.
Gerrard, London,
The slump should continue. The next generation will benefit.
Hamad Lone, London, England
A full blown crash is now deing driven by tighter lending, and is inevitable. Interest rate cuts can't save it now and nor should the BOE try this approach. Let the house market go, it may cause pain for some, but inflation is now rampant and will burn us all. Rates up is the medicine needed.
Mike , Tauranga, New Zealand
how about a new song "things can only get worse"? lawks its all so depressing
peter c, devizes, wessex
Oil up, food up, electricity up, borrowing up, everything up: wages flat, jobs going = unable to afford houses = houses down.
Who'd buy a depreciating 'asset'?
We're watching a plane crash; there are very hard times to come with extreme anger at the government and institutions.
C Smith, Norwich, UK
Has Baldrick Brown a cunning plan to give us all a boost?
I love the sound of chickens when they're coming home to roost.
Tony Peterson, Kendal,
I believe that the 'mortgage slump' is a good thing. We want house prices to come down 20% odd and saty flat for a few years avoiding too much pain. I believe a 15% deposit for BTL ers is ok, but they should pay a flat 5% stamp duty
john, bath,
All the concern is about individual debt surely its about time we concentrated on how this country is going to service our massive balance of payments deficit. There seems little interest in the media as to this huge hole into which the nation is heading
BRIAN E HILL, Bridlington, ENGLAND
On the other hand... people need somewhere to live. They really don't like living on the streets. At the end of the day, supply and demand control the market... not liquidity or BTL's.
Especially in parts of the UK which have a shortage of housing and nothing being built from new.
dave henry, camberley,
Lenders should have insisted on a minimum of 50% deposit for NTL mortgages.Many BTLs who only put down15% will already be in negative equity,this will worry many lenders.As for increasing the rent,unless people can afford to pay it,it cannot be used as a means to cover the increase in mortgage costs
stephen hulton, eure, france
What with people chasing their "dream home" and moving up the "property ladder", too little equity accompanied by too much debt and supported by high risk lending practices....this situation was inevitable. House prices need to fall 20-30% overall, and need 1970s lending practices for mortgages.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
I'm more surprised 58,000 people are taking out a mortgage to buy a house - it will be 10 years before values rise above 2007 levels.
Or are these remortgages? In which case 58,000 mortgages also got cancelled, net result = zero mortgage lending.
Ed, Harrogate, Yorkshire
When people have no money they do not rent either. I suspect more folk will return to their motherland, share in larger groups, return home or, an old favourite, lofdge with a family who have spent a bit too much money over the last few years. Expect consolidation here, not consolation.
John P T, Reigate,
"Demand is still strong and the buy-to-let market is counter-cyclical"
and of course the earth is flat, please tell me why some-one wants to purchase a house when in all probability it will fall 25% and perhaps 50%. Buytolet landlords read the papers too and they are not as stupid as people believe
john martin, basel, switzerland
Its funny how the banks, who lend out customers money which is not theirs, get themselves in trouble by giving out mortgages willy-nilly. Now they put the pinch on everyone and no doubt if it all goes arse up the government will prop them up with tax payers cash. And then fat cats get a bonus...
J Gardner, London, UK
Greedy BTL lenders and borrowers deserve what they get. They represent all thats wrong with Britain today.
A Harris, Kettering, UK
Bring on the crash!
Geoff Ruud-St-John, Torquay,
But only a short while ago, people who warned of the risks of a debt dependent economy were branded "doom-mongers" and dismissed as heretics. Are you now saying that they were right all along, and the fairweather forecasters were myopic and naiive in their outlook?
(yes you are ...)
Barry, London, UK