Gráinne Gilmore, Economics Correspondent
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House sales slumped to a 30-year low last month, raising fears that the downturn in the housing market could turn into a crash.
Chartered surveyors reported that an average of 17.4 transactions had been completed each month between March and May, down from 18.5 in the three months to April.
This is the lowest figure since records began in January 1978, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Housing transactions are regarded as a key indicator of future trends in the housing market, because a dearth of buyers drags down prices.
News of the slump came as swap rates – the interbank lending rates that determine the cost of mortgages – spiralled yesterday, heightening concern that lenders may increase their rates further, piling more pressure on homeowners and buyers.
Barclays, the seventh-biggest mortgage lender, said that, from today, it was increasing its rates for landlords by up to 0.5 per cent and for homebuyers and remortgagers by up to 0.3 per cent. Abbey and Bradford & Bingley increased their rates last week.
There were signs of a slight pickup in house prices as the number of surveyors reporting that prices were falling declined slightly. A balance of 92.9 per cent reported price falls rather than rises, compared with 94.7 per cent in April. However, surveyors in East Anglia and the South East are unanimous that house prices are falling.
RICS said that house prices would fall sharply if there was a surge in homeowners being forced to sell or give up their homes. The Council of Mortgage Lenders has forecast that repossessions will rise by 50 per cent this year to 45,000.
This gloom was compounded by more bleak news about activity in the market, with new instructions falling for the fifth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since June last year. London and Scotland were the exceptions, with surveyors in both areas reporting a rise in new instructions.
Some surveyors reported that first-time buyers were holding off in the hope of snapping up cheaper deals. Neil Shaw, of Chinneck Shaw, a surveyor in Portsmouth, said: “First-time buyers are reluctant to buy even if they can get a mortgage as they feel that prices are going to come down further.”
Hopes that business might pick up soon were dented as new-buyer enquiries fell for the eighteenth consecutive month, with the most pronounced fall in the East Midlands, where 83 per cent more surveyors reported that enquiries from prospective buyers fell rather than rose.
Confidence in the sales outlook improved only fractionally, with the majority of surveyors still expecting a further drop in sales over the next three months.
However, surveyors in the South East, the South West, London and Scotland were more upbeat, with the majority forecasting an increase in sales in the coming months.
Mortgage lenders have also tightened their lending criteria in the wake of the credit crunch, deterring first-time buyers from looking for a home and stalling activity throughout the market. Simon Fraser, of Waterman & Company, a surveyor in Maidenhead, Berkshire, said: “First-time-buyer enquiries are virtually nonexistent.
This is having a knock-on effect on the rest of the market.”
Only borrowers with hefty deposits can clinch the most competitive home loans. Nationwide and Halifax, the UK’s biggest mortgage lenders, offer the best deals for borrowers who have a 25 per cent deposit. Since the average price of a first home is about £147,800, new buyers need to save nearly £37,000 to qualify for these deals.
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if your house has been on the market for a long time without a sniff of a buyer- it is over priced, reduce the price by 100k it will sell overnight, rich posh greedy types need to learn a lesson.
andy, bradford,
I agree with Larry Davis.
When I placed my E.Anglia house on the market, the agent told me not to accept a penny less than the list price.
The next week, I was told that I should expect an offer of 12% less than the list price.
The next thing - a buyer came in at 12% less!
No sale - agent fired!
lyn, california, usa
My rather slanted view of this situation is that estate agents would rather not go out of business so they and the surveyors are valuing lower to encourage sales. This has nothing to do with the bank rates which are relatively low in comparison to the the last "correction" in house prices
larry davis, chatham, uk
I will be a first time buyer. I have a deposit ready to put down for my first property, but am holding off from buying. So much speculation that there's about to be a crash in house prices - Why would i want to buy now when i can get the same place for thousands less in 'x' months time??
John, Manchester, UK
Oviously some of your readers still believe in command economies - to say that house prices are too high or that a FTB property should not cost more than the £125K threshold is facile. People still have to live somewhere and while supply remains restricted the overall trend in prices will be upward
Andrew Hignett, Ringwood, UK
It would be nice, (David, Marlow), if the world was symetric & fair but I suspect it's not. My guess is that many of those feeling so unhappy on the way up will be exactly those who get hammered as the economic implosion they call for actually happens. I hope not but it's usually the little guy...
Robin, Hassocks,
I am sick of people bleating on about rates being too high, abolishing stamp duty, etc. It's house prices that are too high, NOT interest rates!
Which would you rather:
Mortgage at 8% on 200K home=£1560 per month
Mortgage at 4% on 400K home=£2133 per month
Answers on a postcard...
cp, London, UK
It is an unfortunate fact, proven in France, that in order to have stable house prices, you have to tax the speculator, heavily. In France there is capital gains tax on house sales. It is on a sliding scale and peanlises the buy quick, sell quick investor. Therefore, prices rise here, but slowly.
Marc, Paris, France
Stamp Duty is not the problem, its prices. The typical FTB property should not cost more than the 125k threshold, i.e. tax free.
However, as Government policy is home ownership then stamp duty should be tripled for all second home purchases. Pampering to BTL wont win them a general election.
A Harris, Kettering, UK
@ Duncan Tate St. Albans
I think you'll find it's radical 'out of the box' thinking that's created this mess.
You're clearly nursing a Buy to Let portfolio.
The people you've priced out of the market are about to have their turn.
Now you can see what it feels like.
David, Marlow,
Of course there is going to be a crash - this is what bubbles do. Google lifecycle of a bubble - we are on the just starting on the down slope of fear. It will bottom out when average house is £90k.
Oil will be $70 in 18 months too.
Ed, Harrogate, Yorkshire
Duncan,
The government did nothing to stop the ridiculous bubble developing, so why should it act to stop it deflating.
There's clearly something wrong with house prices when the government offers assistance to FTBs on less than £60k...over twice average salary and stuggling to afford a house?
Rob, Hull,
A penthouse flat near me at Canary Wharf was for sale at £2.5m six months ago. It is now still unsold having come down £0.5m. Proof prices are falling at all levels of the market.
Alex, London,
Any thing is possible in any market that is driven by confidence.
A crash can not be ruled in or out .
Currently little finance available to the average middle class buyer and thus no buyers able to proceed point to problems even if property prices fell 10% the fundamentals remain almost intact.
J Regan, Southgate, LONDON
Falling prices are good for the economy: if people have to spend 40 to 100k less on their house, this is how much more they will spend, save or invest. This probably explains the little surge on the high street - people spend some of the money they are not using to pay an inflated mortgage.
Ava, London,
It's different this time - prices rose faster and they will fall faster.
Paul, Coventry,
Let the market work. It has worked every time in the past.
You need some negative equity in the system every 15 years or so to remind each generation of the market fundamentals.
The government is the last organisation I would want anywhere near the property market.
David, Dubai, UAE
so house prices are falling....is anybody out there finding incredible bargains? I sure don't see any in London.
Tman, London,
Why I are house prices still going up in Surrey? When I read this correspond articles I always get full of hopes that a crash is coming soon but house prices where i want to buy are still going up. Can we have more articles like this one to help the market crash faster please??
Marcello Piva, London,
Why is it that the response to a home ownership, or a fuel price crisis involves the demands for less tax - which services would you cut instead?
Less stamp duty isn't going to encourage people to buy into a falling market. What is needed is more housing supply, a general reduction in house price
Michael Murray, Bath,
What about the effect HIPS is having. Why would you pay £500 to try and sell your house in this uncertain market when the HIPS only lasts for 12 months. Then you have to pay again. HIPS is a load of rubbish and another GREAT IDEA by Tax Spend New Labour! (Sorry I meant TAX and WASTE New Labour!)
Gwilym Ashworth, Wisborough Green, West Sussex
Andy - I would agree except for the knock on effect the falling housing market will have on the general economy. People have used houses as 'banks' to fund lifestyles they otherwise could not afford. Now the debt is going to cripple a whole generation for years to come - people like Duncan
PDBristol, Bristol,
"...some people are already looking beyond the slowdown, trying to spy out the locations that could be the first to start moving upwards again." , said your Property editor in November.
My tip, quality 3-4 houses in good location will be the first to start increasing again....in 2014.
Trevor, Romsey,
A friend recently bought at auction a repossessed BTL property for about 40% LESS than the price paid 3 years ago. What on earth does this headline writer expect to see before being willing to describe the current situation as a CRASH?
Clint, Brighton, UK
Duncan,
the government did nothing to stop the vast increase in house prices, so why should it attempt to stop it deflating.
House prices in the UK are too high; recent government policy speaks of assisting FTBs on less than £60k. If you need assistance on such a wage, somethings wrong.
Robert, London, UK
I think it's not that first-time buyers are 'holding out for a better deal.'
Rather they're smart enough to look at the current market and realise that buying a house in Britain right now is a bit like rushing to get a port-side room on the Titanic.
Chris, London,
Well done to those, who managed to sell their property.... for everyone else - unlucky!
Alex, City,
The one thing that will help get us out of this mess is if the media report in a neutral way. If you actually read the RICS report, and the other recent reports the picture is not that bad, certainly no where near as bad as the late 80's. The difference is in the reporting; cause and effect anyone?
Lisa, London, UK
This is more good news. Houses are meant for living in, they should not be a currency for grabbing unearned cash. First Time Buyers should hang on for a lot longer until the prices come down to real values. There are plenty of buy to let Spivs in a panic which will release houses onto the market.
Boris, London, UK
All this only applies outside the centre of London and anywhere near a tube station, remember ! And about time since the rest of the country is a dump ! Ha ha L
Olly, London (Central),
Not that I saw this coming or anything
Olly, London (Central),
.For every negtive comment about house prices there will be a reaction by first time buyers: THEY WILL NOT BUY.
No one wants to achieve negative equity as it hangs around your neck for years. Like most bubbles and busts this one is going to cause a lot of pain and some extreme losses...DON'T BUY !
David Nammory, Liverpool.,
The crash is well under way. Now remind me, who was it who said "No more boom and bust, I will not allow house prices to get out of control"?
Neil, London,
Agree Paul, leave well alone.
Schemes to keep the house prices held high only really benefit house owners, but with the pretext of supporting first time buyers. But what better way to help FTBs than have house prices drop by 30% over 2 years?
P.S. Halifax show 6.8% drop in 4 months. Crash anyone?
Lenny, Coventry,
Duncan, why should the government act ? Homes are for living in. Simply pay your monthly repayments and carry on enjoying life. Your home will not shrink. Does it matter if the value drops slightly ? So will all the values around you.
andy, manchester,
Duncan, best thing the government can do for first time buyers is leave well alone. WOuld you prefer to have stamp duty abolished (saving 1% of house price) or be able to purchase a house in few years' time for 50% of current prices (saving 50% of house price)
Paul, Claygate,
"raising fears that the downturn in the housing market could turn into a crash". Wake-up and smell the Coffee!.
Bill, Winchester,
The goverment should act before it is to late we need new ideas, fresh thinking , bold and radical action. Suspend or abolish stamp duty, adjust taxes on fuel,lower taxes on first time buyers salaries?
duncan tait, st.albans, herts
"First-time-buyer enquiries are virtually nonexistent"
Not surprising, they can't borrow enough with the new multiples to pay the extortionate prices. Deposits are beyond most means and living costs and mortgage rates are rising. You'd have to be mad to buy a house now. Patience will pay dividends
Np, England, UK (at the moment)