James Rossiter, Property Correspondent
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More than £400 million was wiped off the combined value of Britain’s “big
seven” quoted housebuilders yesterday as fears intensified that Barratt
Developments and Taylor Wimpey may be forced into huge debt-for-equity
swaps. The latest fall in share prices leaves the combined market value of
the big seven at less than £4 billion. A year ago the same companies were
worth £18.5 billion.
Shares in Barratt were hit worst, tumbling 24 per cent to 91¼p - after briefly
touching 85¾p - a low last suffered when Barratt nearly collapsed in the
early 1990s. The share-price fall wiped £101 million from its market value,
leaving the group, which is labouring under £1.7 billion of debt, worth only
£317 million.
A year ago Barratt shares were changing hands for nearly £11, valuing the
company at £3.8 billion. It had just completed a £2.2 billion cash
acquisition of Wilson Bowden at the height of the housing boom.
Taylor Wimpey, the largest British housebuilder by production, which is
closing about a third of its sales offices, was also hit badly. Its shares
fell 15.6 per cent, down 12p to a long-time low of 65p, wiping £126 million
from its market value – now £686 million. In the spring of last year Taylor
Wimpey shares hit a high of 455½p, valuing the group at £4.8 billion shortly
after the all-share merger of George Wimpey and Taylor Woodrow.
Mark Hughes, an analyst with Pan-mure Gordon, the broker, said: “There are
three fears: writedowns, rights issues and debt-for-equity swaps. That has
led to fear and hedge funds shorting against the stocks. To try to be
logical about land values has gone out of the window. Barratt and Taylor
Wimpey shares have rights issues factored in. More important is the dilutive
effect of a rights issue and debt-for-equity swaps.”
Concerns are mounting that Barratt will be forced to write down the value of
its landbank by hundreds of millions of pounds this month as it revalues its
sales sites for its June 30 financial year-end. With signs that the housing
market will deteriorate further, writedowns are likely to be even greater by
the end of December.
That could push Barratt closer to breaching loan-to-value covenants on its
bank borrowings. Investors are concerned that by the end of this calendar
year, without a rapid rise in sales or a fundraising exercise, Barratt may
have breached bank covenants calculated on how much its interest is covered
by earnings. Alastair Stewart, a Dresdner Kleinwort analyst, issued a “sell”
note on Barratt, telling clients not to buy at any price until the financial
picture is clear. He said that Barratt would have to raise at least £1
billion to survive.
Housing stocks have come under assault after the publication of a string of
gloomy industry surveys. These have revealed, among other things, that
confidence in the sector is at lows last experienced in the housing crash of
the early 1990s and that volumes of house sales between March and May fell
to a 30-year low.
Both Barratt and Taylor Wimpey have gearing of about 50 per cent, the highest
among their sector peers, but their debt-to-equity ratios are based on
landbank valuations at least six months old, before the downturn in the
housing market gathered pace.
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