Gráinne Gilmore and Steve Hawkes
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For many homeowners, houses have become more than just a place to live they are seen as an investment vehicle, a pension or even a savings bank. But this reliance on property is likely to make the effects of the housing market downturn even more painful and widespread.
It is no wonder that many homeowners view bricks and mortar as a cash cow. House prices rose 224 per cent between July 1995 and August last year, putting the 180.3 per cent growth in the FTSE 100 over the same period firmly in the shade.
People keen for a bigger slice of the action bought extra properties and let them. Buy-to-let landlords put £1.5 billion into property in the past decade alone. It was so attractive as an investment that for thousands of people it replaced pensions as the preferred method of retirement saving. Tom McPhail, pensions research manager at Hargreaves Lansdown, the independent financial adviser, said: “People were attracted by the apparent upward one-way bet on property.”
Homeowners were able to taste tangible benefits of house price rises. As the value of their property rose, many cashed in slices of equity to boost their incomes. They withdrew £57 billion in equity from their homes in 2004 alone. This in turn boosted consumer spending, benefiting the whole economy.
The insatiable demand for housing also ensured lucrative employment for thousands of people. Construction workers, electricians, plumbers and estate agents were all kept busy as more buyers demanded homes. Manufacturers and retailers of household goods, garden implements and DIY materials grew used to profitable weekend trolley-jams in their aisles as buyers fitted out their new properties. But now that activity in the housing market has stalled and prices are slipping, the housing market looks set to drag everyone down with it.
The number of new loans granted to homebuyers last month slumped 36 per cent compared with May last year, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders show, highlighting the slowdown in activity in the housing market. First-time buyers are staying away from the market as the average deposit demanded by lenders rose to a three-year high of 13 per cent.
Construction firms are already feeling the pain of the housing slowdown, with Barratt, the country’s second-biggest housebuilder, fearing for its future if prices continue to fall. Estate agents are also in trouble, some expect that 15,000 jobs will go this year alone.
The pain on the high street has been even more acute. Share prices started to slide last summer as analysts warned investors that consumer spending was falling. Shares in some of the biggest names in the sector have halved, including Topps Tiles and Home Retail Group, home to Argos and Homebase, as the fall in housing activity hits sales of sofas, beds and wardrobes. Even John Lewis, the untouchable star of the sector, said that sales of homewares this year were the weakest since 2004. However, it is not only housing-related industries that will feel the pain.
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, an economic consultancy, said that price falls had a big impact on consumer confidence. “Even if the owners have no intention of selling, the fact that houses are falling in value affects their confidence.” In the UK, consumer confidence is at an 18-year low, recent surveys show, as consumers grapple with sliding property prices as well as sharp rises in utility bills, food costs and sharply dearer fuel to get to work.
In addition, the seizure in the mortgage market prompted by the credit crunch is forcing mortgage rates up, hitting homeowners again with increased home-loan payments. About 1.5 million homeowners will have to remortgage this year and pay much more for their home loans.
Two thirds of British consumers think that the country is in recession, so difficult are the financial circumstances in which they find themselves. Falling house prices and a dip in confidence will discourage homeowners from withdrawing equity from their home. Mortgage equity withdrawal dropped by nearly a half in the final three months of last year as house prices began to fall, the most recent figures from the Bank of England show. About £7 billion was withdrawn between October and December last year, down from £13.7 billion in the same period in 2006.
As an added disincentive to withdrawing cash from their homes, lenders are now offering the best mortgage rates to those with higher equity in their property. Investors who planned to use property to provide their retirement income will be doubly alarmed by the slide in house prices and are likely to return to saving, rather than spending, experts say.
The knock-on effect of the housing market on consumer spending is not new. Spending has mirrored trends in house prices since the 1970s, according to Capital Economics, the economics consultancy. While the slowdown in consumer spending has already taken its toll in the housing sector, experts say businesses such as hotels, restaurants and bars may be next. But if the slowdown in spending is as sharp as some economists forecast, all businesses will feel the effect.
Phil Dorgan, analyst at Panmure Gordon, said: “The British consumer is more geared to house prices than almost any consumer in the world. There’s a high level of consumer debt as a proportion of GDP if house prices fall it absolutely affects consumer spending and if we move into negative equity it will get even worse.”
The spectre of negative equity where people owe more than they paid for their home is sending chills through already shaken homeowners.
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Steve, Edgware, UK you are right when talking about money and inflation but on oil you forgot that its price is mostly speculative. Anyway do you prefer 3% inflation hike or 3% mortgage interest increase?
andrea ceccanti, london,
So what if property prices are supposed to double every 10 years. That equates to 7% compound p.a. A blue chip investment trust currently provides a yield of 4.4% leaving earnings growth of just 2.6% to beat it - a totally liquid investment, often tax-free without the maintenance, rent voids etc
Derrick, Reading, UK
The logic of the masses : "An Irish horse has won the Derby three years running, so I'll stake my pension pot on an Irish horse winning this year. All those who try to warn me that English horses have won occasionally in previous business cycles are just jealous of my financial cleverness."
Eric Skelton, Cardiff, Wales
Please ignore my posting of 10 minutes earlier - it may be I who need to check my copy. Apologies
Raoul, London,
If houses are cheaper, then people will have more money to spend in the economy anyway and there will be no need to pay it off with interest over 25 years.
Surely negative equity is when a house is worth less than is borrowed against it? Not when people owe more than they paid?
chris, Dubai,
£1.5 trillion sounds like a more realistic figure...
£1.5 billion is clearly incorrect.
Jason, Warwick,
George said "The 'Insiders' left the market last year exactly because they had the information just alittle earlier! "
Anyone who didn't have their head stuck firmly in the sand could have found all the information they needed on the internet. Most were blinded by greed.
Tony Marshall, Fareham,
I rent a house (good location, nice garden, 7 bdrms) and my rent covers 1/4 of what the interest payments would be on a mortgage to buy it. If I bought the place, I'd be paying 4 times as much each month in order to speculate on the direction of house prices. You can't deny that this is a bubble.
RichB, Cookham Dean, Berks
Gordans miracle economy was built on rising house prices and equity withdrawl not on prudent policies. Now the bubble has burst the economy is sharply following house prices down the pan.
david barker, eastbourne,
The operative word is "Homeowners" " withdrew £57 billion in equity from their homes in 2004"
susy, kent, UK
Andrew said "It is simple, property prices double almost every 10 years and have done for the last century and will do so again in the next 10 yrs end of !!!"
So as they have trebled in the last 10 years, they must be overpriced by at least a third of current prices.. Which if course they are.
Tony Marshall, Fareham,
So why did we need X thousand extra homes every year a few months ago and now it would seem we no longer need them - doesn't make sense - or are we just marking time, and the good times will return with money and houses becoming available again just before the next election.
Marty, London,
This is a classic bubble. Those who were involved in dot com know this stuff. The words are even the same. The recriminations against the doom sayers as though its their fault. We were idiots. Leverage works both ways. Its great when the market is rising but when it falls you need to get out.
Ashley, Luton,
Bob "They withdrew £57 billion " that is all home owners not just btl`rs
Geoff, Birmingham, UK
william Morris, London. Were you writing to complain when the newspapers were talking the market up? The sooner average property prices fall to long term sustainable levels - 3x income, so about half current levels - the better. If the newspapers can speed this along, all the to the good.
Clint, Brighton, UK
I think the £1.5 billion might be what buy-to-letters have actually put in in terms of cash deposits. The banks have effectively put in the rest through mortgages. This (and hence the £54 billion that has already been withdrawn) will be paid back by the said buy-to-letters.
David, London, UK
A rational investment decision isn't based on a gamble on capital growth alone. BTL investors will soon realise this. There is no easy way to make money and, about time, people are about to realise that a property is a home and not solely an investment. A return to the norm is long overdue.
Nick, London, UK
"Buy-to-let landlords put £1.5 billion into property in the past decade alone."
This may well be correct, but why is the effect of the black market, laundered, or dirty money which has also been ploughed into the UK property market always overlooked / conveniently ignored?
Allan, Inverness,
Apart from the figures, which I can't verify, the article seemed to prove the point of the title.
Derek, Camberley,
William,
Knowledge is power.
And I think it quite right that in this 'information world' we all have a right to know what's going on and not to be hood-winked by the vested interests. The 'Insiders' left the market last year exactly because they had the information just alittle earlier!
george, aylesbury,
Contrary to what has been said here, a ten per cent rise in house prices only produces a 0.4 % increase in general spending. Figures from economist John Muellbauer ,Nuffield College, Oxford. Anyway it is a circuitous way to increase spending.Why not just give people higher wages ?
DBC Reed, Northampton, UK
Andrea, you need to understand that you have things around the wrong way, the high oil prices are being caused by inflation not the other way around. Inflation is caused by the creation of money by our central bankers, cutting interest rates will just increase the creation of money and inflation.
Steve, Edgware, UK
Just as the house price boom helped fuel consumer spending,the fall will have the opposite effect.A recession next year seems almost a 100% certainty.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Once again too much speculation by journalists. Why dont we see what actually does happen rather than scaring people and affecting the value of investments some people have had to work so hard to acquire.
william Morris, London,
How about cutting interest rates? Yeah yeah inflation I know, but inflation is going up anyway mostly due to the price of oil.
Uk has interest rates much higher than the rest of europe and we are over reliant on the housing market.
andrea ceccanti, london,
It seems to me that all the doom merchants are people who never had any inclination, drive or desire to look at property as an investment for the future.
It is simple, property prices double almost every 10 years and have done for the last century and will do so again in the next 10 yrs end of !!!
Andrew, Manchester, uk
"Get on the property ladder" - this phrase, beloved of property programs on TV now has a hollow ring to it. Or perhaps it is the sudden realisation that a ladder is for going down as well as up. Cost out the price of building, add the cost of land and the figure is still far less than values now.
David Nammory, Liverpool.,
£1.5 billion equates to only about 10000 homes so it must be much higher than that.
D, Surrey, UK
This housing market decline is going to be the worst we have ever seen due to the fact of millions of people using their houses as ATM's, to add to that the UK consumer has 10's of billions of £'s in additional debt, credit cards etc. That is why we are going to see a depression in this country.
Steve, Edgware, UK
People just need to stop thinking about a house as something that makes money. They may generate some speculative revenue but can't be taken for granted and, most importantly, that can't be the function of housing in an economy.
The housing markey exists to provide shelter, not speculative revenues.
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
The article quotes
Buy-to-let landlords put £1.5 billion into property in the past decade alone.
They withdrew £57 billion in equity from their homes in 2004 alone.
Something wrong with the figures here
bob jones, Ipswich,
"Buy-to-let landlords put £1.5 billion into property in the past decade alone."
I'm no expert, but I think the figure must be a hell of a lot higher, unless you're sticking with the old British definition of billion.
Your definition of negative equity is just bizarre.
Neil McF, Southampton, England