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Home sales fell to their lowest level in 30 years last month as the seizure in the mortgage market continued to drag house prices down.
Estate agents reported that they sold an average of 15 properties in the three months to the end of June, figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) show. That is nearly 40 per cent lower than the same period last year and the lowest figure recorded since RICS began its series in 1978.
House prices, which have been dragged down as sellers are forced to slash their asking prices to attract buyers, remain at near record lows, the RICS figures suggest.
The balance of surveyors reporting house price falls rather than rises was 88 per cent in June, only a slight improvement from 92.2 per cent in May. All surveyors in the West Midlands said prices were falling, while a balance of more than 90 per cent said prices continued to fall in Yorkshire and Humberside, the East Midlands, East Anglia and the South East. In London, 75 per cent reported price falls.
While falling house prices should be encouraging more buyers to the market, the number of new purchasers is being suppressed by a lack of home loans. Jeremy Leaf, of RICS, said: “Transaction levels remain incredibly low with many buyers cut out of the process by tight lending conditions.”
Mortgage lenders are demanding hefty deposits from first-time buyers as they attempt to protect their profits in the wake of the the credit crunch. Buyers who do not have the cash for a deposit of more than 5 per cent will find it impossible to secure a mortgage deal, while the best mortgage rates are reserved for those who have a downpayment of 25 per cent or more.
A balance of 35 per cent of surveyors reported falls rather than rises in buyer inquiries during June in England and Wales, while 14 per cent more surveyors reported falls in Scotland. The outlook for the housing market also remains gloomy, with nearly 70 per cent of surveyors in England and Wales expecting prices to fall.
However, there was a glimmer of hope as sales expectations improved for the second month in a row, although it still remains in negative territory.
The lack of activity in the housing market is not only having a knock-on effect on firms of surveyors and estate agents, many of whom have had to cut jobs, but also housebuilders who are set to axe thousands of jobs.
Recent data from Halifax and Nationwide showing annual house price falls of more than 6per cent has prompted some economists to revise down their housing forecasts for the coming years.
Global Insight forecasts house prices to fall by 15 per cent in 2008 and 12per cent in 2009, resulting in a 26 per cent drop in house prices since their peak in August last year. Capital Economics forecast a 35 per cent drop in house prices in the next three years.
This gloom was echoed by surveyors across the UK.
Malcolm Parker, of Joplings Estate Agents in North Yorkshire said: “The market is as depressed as I have known it in over 30 years. The squeeze on lending has had a profound effect. The signs are that the rest of 2008 will be very difficult.”
Jeremy Dell, of JJ Dell in Oswestry, said: “Restricted credit, high mortgage fees and expectations of lower property values equals the most difficult market for over 25 years.”
However, the Government is more upbeat about the housing market. A spokesman for the Department for Communities and Local Government said: “The long-term demand for housing remains high and the fundamentals of the economy are sound with low unemployment and historically low interest rates.”
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At the moment it is a buyers market, when prices rise that is a sellers market. Most people who are spectators and have no personal experience in this game don't understand that. Amateurs buy in the rise and not the fall. Buy now and you will make a solid return within 3-5 years. Not 10 years.
Matt , Leeds,
Poor old Phil from Harrogate, singing along to his happy BTL song still. One day he will wake up and acknowledge the carnage all around him.
Val, london, UK.
Take ALL your money out of Bradford & Bingley,
Alliance and Leicester, and
Halifax (HBOS)
the will go bust soon.
The compensation scheme is rubbish and it wil take years to get your hands on your money.
s coles, lincoln,
The housing market is currently at the stage in the cycle when few people have to sell. When those who have been living off equity withdrawl find that they cannot remortgage, even asking prices will come down. Yes you can still 'get a deal' but you will not profit on it for at least 10 years.
Paul, Coventry,
"Seizure in the mortgage market" is happily saving many FTBs from making a huge mistake by buying at the peak and lumbering themselves with a millstone for life - or bankruptcy.
Renting is far cheaper and when ridiculously high asking prices collapse FTBs will one day be able to buy at 1/2 price
Davie P, London,
The market has a long way to drop yet but be assured it will get there. Do your own due diligence and you will find we are heading for the most savage depression in the history of the world.GW Bush must be the most selfish self serving President in US history as Oil ..His business has survived alone
Peter, Vancouver. BC., Canada
Interesting interview on radio 4 this morning. Sounds like things are improving and BTL investors are entering the market again - a sign that they dont expect prices to fall much more.
phil, harrogate,
"House prices... remain at near record lows."
What on earth do you mean?
Pete, Salisbury,
The cost of housing has always been governed by the cost of new build.
While house prices are falling now, the cost of building materials is rising fast.
It makes me wonder whether, although house prices are falling now, once the market becomes more stable, prices will rise fast again.
Barbara, Hereford,
"House prices..., remain at near record lows".
Not strictly true, that one, is it...
Dave Hall, Stafford, UK
Tim in Bristol, They said the housing market was overvalued and due a correction. They are right but their timing was way out. Predicting when a bubble will burst is almost impossible.
With BTL disappearing the market will only clear at the level first time buyers can pay. That is a long way down
howard, london,
Kathryn, taunton. Maybe you are being realistic, maybe you aren't. Ask yourself - what type buyer is likely to want your property and are you asking about 3-3.5x this sort of person's average income? In my area sellers are still expecting people to stump up 6-8x income - totally UNREALISTIC!
Clint, Brighton, UK
I've had my house on the market now for more time than I'd care to remember but it won't shift. I live in the south east of England and I am convinced there is already a massive housing slump. It's VERY depressing when you're trying to sell!!
Anto, London, UK
Historical predictions from Capital Economics:
When, prediction, timeframe
Jan 05, -20%, 2005-06
Dec 05, -5%, 2005
Oct 07, +0- 3% 2008 !!!
Oct 07, -5%, 2008
From Jan 05- Mar 08 prices rose 26%...
Capital Economics, Credibility, 0%.
Tim, Bristol,
David Huggett. Nonsense! If you buy a 150k house today that will be worth £100k in 2 years you've saddled yourself with 50k extra debt. With interest over 25 years that could easily total 125k EXTRA. That's about 8 years average take home pay wasted. You're not in the property business are you??
Clive, Chichester, UK
I have had my house on the market for nearly 4 months. I have dropped the price by 25,000 and told the agents to send anyone who can come anywhere near that price, I will look at offers, I am being more than realistic. I have not had one single viewing. Price is meaningless in this market.
Kathryn, taunton, UK
UK house market was overpriced but there are still many first time buyers. They do not buy because banks do not lend and when they lend the interest rate is so high that makes payment greater that a rent. Asking price shold be dropped from the speculative sector only and not from genuine owners.
andrea ceccanti, london,
Nice one Hugh, why does everybody have to 'follow the press'. If you buy now you may well get a deal, or you can wait like sheep until everyone else starts buying again and pay 10% more. Property is a LONG TERM INVESTMENT, so unless you're buying today and selling tomorrow, it irrelevant.
David Huggett, London, UK
"House prices, which have been dragged down as sellers are forced to slash their asking prices to attract buyers, remain at near record lows, the RICS figures suggest."
Are you sure?!
Jim, Accra,
The recent boom was bigger and more out of control than any other,largely due to incorrectly set interest rates since 9/11, so am predicting the correction to be just as spectacular or even bigger....
cww, Ipswich,
'While falling house prices should be encouraging more buyers to the market'
no... no-one wants to buy a house that will immediately fall in value. that would be stupid and to invite immediate negative equity... we're waiting for them to hit rock bottom first.
Hugh, London,
Why are Capital Economics quoted when they have no credibility and no track record in this!
in 2005 they said prices would go down 20% in 05/06, they went UP 12%.
In Oct 07 they said 2008 would see down 5%, so what makes them any authority?
Predictions are POINTLESS and not factually based
Tim, Bristol,
Ms Earl, adjusted for inflation house prices have increased by 135% post 1996 based on Nationwide figures.
If they fall by 50% in the next 5 years or so then we would be back to previous inflation adjusted levels. They lose 4% in nominal worth due to annual inflation anyway.
So 6.7% of 50% then.
Lenny, Coventry,
I agree with you Brian...In the area I want to buy there is only one or two agencies who are realistic in their pricing and willing to drop...and they are the ones who are selling, unlike one national chain who's houses are remainging on the market for months without even a single drop of price.
Lee, London, UK
So lenders have gone back to traditional methods of people needing a deposit and realistic multiples.
At last some sense in the market .
We aren't hearing "Its different this time" any more.
andy, petersfield,
And yet at lot of asking prices ares still what they were last summer, are these people in complete denial? If you really wan to sell in today's climate you will have to drop accordingly, some people just don't understand this!
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon
Low unemployement and historically low interest rates have done nothing to stop the housing bust in the US, and will do little to stop it in the UK either. The sooner that everyone accepts that there has been a housing bubble the better so that we can adjust and move on.
james jenkins, Bangkok, Thailand
Economists \ MPC members fret because house prices have fallen 6.7% since June 2007. However house prices rose 300% between 1996 and June 2007. Put things in perspective.
Linda Earl, London , UK
Cuckoo Land! Take the "Average wage" excluding "London", assume both working and multiply by 3, if it comes to more than £150K I would be surprised! Therefore under the simple rule of a 10% deposit, £170K is the Maximum such a couple could pay for a "House"! The Market has a "Long Drop to go Yet"!
paul, Newtown, Powys, UK