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The seizure in Britain’s mortgage market will persist for at least three more years, Sir James Crosby, the former chief executive of HBOS, said yesterday.
His warning came as statistics showed that the number of new home loan approvals fell last month to the lowest since records began. The Bank of England figures showed that the number of mortgage approvals for those moving or buying a home plummeted to 36,000 in June, from 41,000 in May.
The level was 70 per cent lower than that recorded a year ago and the lowest since comparable data were first published nearly a decade ago. Remortgages also fell and total mortgage lending showed its weakest rise for eight years, the Bank said.
The dire report came as Sir James, the man commissioned by Alistair Darling to come up with ways to kickstart the stagnant mortgage market, conceded that it would take years rather than months for banks and building societies to adjust to the new reality. That, in turn, would lead to a rise in defaults and repossessions, he said.
“In my opinion . . . a shortage of mortgage finance will persist throughout 2008, 2009 and 2010,” Sir James said in his interim report, which he presented to the Chancellor yesterday.
Piling on the gloom, the City grandee said that a string of lenders had already withdrawn from the market and he predicted that many mortgage brokers, “an important source of price competition on behalf of consumers”, would disappear. More worryingly, Sir James’s report revealed that banks will have to find about £40 billion every year for the next three years just to refinance their existing mortgage commitments, even before they start thinking about underwriting new ones.
The lack of activity in the mortgage market has dented building societies’ mortgage books, which shrank by more than £670 million during the month, according to the Building Societies Association (BSA).
There had been hopes that Sir James would propose an immediate set of measures to help to loosen Britain’s crippled housing sector but instead he chose to keep his review largely analytical. However, he admitted that even the few remedies he did propose — extending the Bank of England’s existing special liquidity scheme or a new government guarantee for all mortgage bonds — could create more problems than they would solve.
The special liquidity scheme, which was introduced in April, allowed banks to swap mortgages, issued before 2007, for Treasury bills that could then be used to raise funds in the market. Sir James suggested that this could be extended to include any mortgages underwritten since 2007.
Sir James conceded that interventions that distorted the market and prolonged any recovery process would be even less desirable and said the best option might be to do nothing at all and allow the market to recover in its own time with “simpler, more transparent and standardised structures”.
Michael Coogan, of the Council of Mortgage Lenders, told the BBC’s The World at One that an extension of the liquidity scheme was needed to “keep mortgage costs at reasonable levels and prevent . . . a continuing downward spiral in house prices, fewer transactions and lower lending numbers”.
However, Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, said that Sir James’s caution was welcome. Mr Cable said: “It is critical that siren voices in the City don’t seduce ministers into using taxpayers’ money to underwrite new bank lending and reinflate unsustainable house prices.”
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Residential development land prices in most areas will plummit.
Land Investment companies like Whimpy (who have a sideline building shoeboxes) are bust and must not receive taxpayers bail outs. We don't need these companies and we shouldn't be paying for their bad investments.
L McKay , North Shields , uk
Wake up all of you with your "positive thinking" claptrap and your pseudo psycho babble about dark psyches. This is business. We've had 10 years to navel - gaze. Sorry, folks, money doesn't grow on trees and now we have to find real ways to earn a living. Believe me, I'm a therapist !!!
lou, the Fens, uk
It appears that the merry go round of financing mortgages by securitisation has stalled. It was never a good idea as it allowed the housing bubble with mortgages of 125%. Now buyers need a substantial deposit for a mortgage. This is all going to be very painful for Gordo & Labour.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
The solution is for lenders to become much more profitable. This will encourage more money to be made available. Cut bank rate by 2% now and leave the borrowing rates where they are. Money will flow in.
Brian Anderson, Edinburgh,
Basically - the value of our assets have doubled - with no real growth to justify it.
We have borrowed on that growth, and have squandered the money.
It's a bit like when the bank puts money in an idiots account by mistake - and they go on a spending spree.
Sooner or later you have to pay.
jeremy, hassocks, sussex
Problem - Bankers created fake money using deceptive financial alchemy. This so called 'financial innovation' has been exposed as a scam
Solution - We will have to go back to creating the ability to borrow thro' hard work and savings. This will be a shock to many and will take time to sink in
Chris , Haslemere, UK
Our problem is modern banking has very effectively killed off the one thing that created stable long term investment. Is it too much to ask where the funding for the creation of new jobs is going to come from? We need a return to the now "old fashioned" culture of savings and investment in industry.
Chris Coles, Medstead, Alton, United Kingdom
Rom, Oxford. Japan is not a recent lesson. The situations are not comparable in any economic sense. There is no logic in citing it with regards to a 70% drop - indeed if there was a true economic link the drop would be rather larger.
Ann, London,
When will the British people realise you that don't need to own your own house. In fact where is the logic in straddling oneself with crippling debts for life, then died or the DHSS takes your house .
Force the Government to build Council houses, pay their rent and use the £1000/mt u save
Brendan Breen, Omagh, Ireland
Where will the £40bn p.a. come from? The UK government is going to have to borrow a lot more as tax revenues fall and unemployment rises. People are finding it harder to save as food, fuel and C Tax rise. And foreigners have enough of our debt already.
Interest rates will rise.........
N Reed, Truro, UK
It's not just mortgage costs: power and fuel prices are rocketing, and food and the rest, and soon unemployment. If it was only mortgage costs, no huge problem, but people are crushed from all sides and if significant numbers get reposessed there will be trouble.
Richard, Ipswich, UK
Why should the government intervene. Lots of people thought they were making a one-way bet on property. They re-mortgaged to fund their consumer greed, pricing others out of the market meanwhile. Now things look less rosy so they go crying to the government. You make your own bed. Sleep in it.
Quentin, Shanghai,
So what will happen to those people who lose their jobs and need to sell their homes? With banks not lending there will be few buyers, that can mean only one thing repossessions. something must be done now before its too late. The banking sector is a shameful disgrace. Government must intervene.
david hambly, St Albans, uk
In Canada the 40 year mortgage was QUICKLY removed having only been on the shelf for a few months. Back now to 25 year standards - has the UK removed its 52 year mortgage that I recall was with TESCO. This mortgage was backed by high street lenders.
Think about who is ultimately to blame!
Paul, London, Canada
if saving was encouraged and became a national habit, there would be money to lend.so encourage mutual building societies and keep them mutual by lawand keep moneybags away from them- make them have a rule, no loan without 2 years' regular saving
peter c, devizes, wessex
About 15 the retiring head of Lloyds Bank said, "t he problem with Banking was that there was too many banks chasing insufficient business, to sustain them all" or words to that effect.
That comment was probably the best advice any banker could give and the same is true today.
Chris, Salisbury,
The problem was a sustained period of irrational exuberance in the UK over the past 10yrs. The Government allowed it to happen; the banks encouraged it and the public naively accepted it. A painful correction is now unavoidable. There is no quick & easy fix. The damage is done: pain is unavoidable.
James Emanuel, London, England
Re £40 billion pa of additional funding for the next three years for existing commitments, one presumes at the point of lending the banks found the funding to make the mortgage advance. So apart from funding defaults what is £40 billion for ?
Fred, Bridgwater, UK
Francis,
Why is it positive to help house prices rise further ? Would you like more expensive cars and kitchen appliances too ?.
Michael Reid, Northampton, UK
The report is wrong. Anyone with a job and 10% deposit can easily get a mortgage of more than four times salary.
The reason people are not buying is because houses are too expensive,Banks have lent too much and put prices up.They are the guilty ones.
Why use tax payers' money to keep prices up ?
Michael Reid, Northampton, UK
What a shame successive governments have made it so easy to raise money for a home. Thirty years ago it was two and a half times one income. If that had remained the standard I wonder where house prices would be today?
Who has profited? Estate agencies, banks and lawyers. Not us!
charles Watson, funchal, madeira
Now is the time to temporarily remove stamp duty for UK property transactions. The Treasury state that Stamp duty is an important source of revenue, but its pretty useless right now. Sir James Crosbys report does nothing for the property market, but lay on more gloom. Think POSITIVELY for a change
Francis Henderson, Arundel, UK
wow - the doom-mongers are having their best year ever - the 'well I think it'll be EVEN worse than that' (70% indeed!). There is something about the British psychie that loves dark clouds and wants more ...
richard sullivan, Chislhurst, Kent
Sir James's report sounds like an actual attempt at honesty and realism. Could he run for office in the United States? We don't have any of either, but we love imports.
Walter, East Hampton, U.S.A.
only 3 years, your joking, what is the solution, people with high debts cannot repay them when they are unemployed ?
What is the solution ? is there 1 ? Where do the dehoused people
, children and pets go to ? We cannot live in the streets in a British winter.
Peter Hollidai, ratoath, Ireland
Sir James's assessment is based on current conditions. Add in still to come rising unemployment, rising private loan / card defaults, rising corporate Non Performing Loans and falling Sterling as a result of the encroaching recession and the prices drop will be around 70%. Japan is a recent lesson.
Rom, Oxford,
Here's something the MSM won't tell you. In a private U.S. Federal Reserve report, the prediction is that the S&P (Standard and Poors) will drop 500 points within the next year. Which is roughly half the current value.
Tom, Kansas City, US