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The housing market slump will wipe £50,000 off the value of the average British home and plunge one in seven homeowners into negative equity, influential new research suggests.
Some 70,000 mortgage-holders already owe more than their homes are worth after the near-10 per cent falls in house prices over the past year, Standard & Poor's (S&P), the credit ratings agency, said. It forecasts that prices will fall by a further 17 per cent, or £30,000, by next April, putting 1.7 million borrowers into negative equity. A 17 per cent fall in prices would take the value of the average house to about £150,000, down from £199,600 in August last year, according to Halifax figures. S&P said that for every further percentage point decline in house prices, between 60,000 and 180,000 extra homeowners could fall into negative equity.
The news came as a poll showed that consumer confidence had tumbled to a 34-year low. The GfK/NOP index measuring attitudes to personal finances and Britain's economy fell to -39 this month, down from -34 in June and the lowest level recorded since the series began in 1974.
There are fears that the increased pressure on homeowners as utility, fuel and mortgage bills rise could cause more people to fall behind with home-loan payments. Borrowers in negative equity who miss multiple mortgage payments or who want to move home could be forced to sell their properties at a loss.
A further 17 per cent fall in house prices would push the average mortgage of those in negative equity up to 108 per cent of the value of their property, leaving them with a debt of £12,500 even if they sold up, S&P said.
Lloyds TSB, the third-biggest mortgage lender, which yesterday reported a 70 per cent drop in first-half pre-tax profits, said the number of its mortgage accounts three months or more in arrears rose by 3 per cent in the past year. It expected house prices to fall by a further 10 to 15 per cent this year, and 5 per cent next year.
Homeowners with a blemished credit history are more likely to fall into negative equity because more of these sub-prime borrowers bought their homes with small deposits. Nearly a quarter of them would be in negative equity if house prices fell a further 17 per cent, while 13 per cent of prime borrowers with clean credit histories would be affected. Borrowers in the East and West Midlands are more likely to be affected by negative equity than homeowners in other parts of the country, S&P said, because house prices there had risen more slowly in the past three years. More than one in five borrowers in the region would be in negative equity if house prices fell 17 per cent, while a similar fall in Scotland would force only 6.2 per cent into negative equity after strong rises in house prices there since 2005.
Some analysts predict sharper house price falls than S&P's forecast of a 25 per cent drop between August last year and next May. Global Insight, the economic consultancy, said prices would fall by 30 per cent, while Capital Economics expects a 35per cent drop.
But there was a glimmer of hope for homeowners. Abbey and HSBC announced mortgage rate cuts. HSBC has cut the rates on its fixed-rate deals by up to 0.31 percentage points from today, while Abbey will trim the rates on its two and three-year fixed and variable mortgages by up to 0.15 percentage points tomorrow.
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Ann, have no fear London prices will fall, maybe lagging behind other parts of the country, but they will fall also and hopefully rich londoners will be "eating their Kirtsy hat"
lily, ipswich,
Those so called "market expert" are only able to explain what's already happen. Future forecast is difficult for everybody and no one can say what will really happen.
salvo, Catania, Italy
Bubbles always revert to the mean. So if you want to know what the eventual prices or bottom will be look no further than the prices at the start of the recent run up.
Bonanzaman, blaine, US
It is the price of new property which influences the property market.
How can houses fall by 50%, when the cost of raw materials is rising.
The only way house prices will fall, is if builders can buy their land at about 25% of the current market price.
I am not sure that this will happen.
Barbara, Hereford,
nobody can predict the future
jason palmer, london,
Prices are likely to fall over 50% with a over correction. The 25% increase by National Housing Federation is deeply flawed, simplified and does not take into account of the financial state of the banks which will last years.
Big loses in the banks this year and the crash has only just started.
Gavin, London,
The Nationwide and Halifax statistics are misleading. If the sample size has reduced by 70% (Times 31.07.08) the profile of house prices shifts towards below average price properties (less than £170k) because there are far more of them. Prices will not fall as much as 'predicted'. Buy now if you can
G Thomas, Alton,
50k will be entirely inadequate. I assume that we all want recovery? Bite the bullet. No help; No cash injections. 40 0r 50% falls over the next three years are the key to affordable housing in the next decade. This will hurt me: Britain and our children matter more.
Eric Skelton, Cardiff, Wales
I've been hearing for years that house prices were around 40% overvalued. That would seem still to be the figure. What worries me more is that a lot of people have no savings for the future other than that predicated on the value of their house/s. Dangerous is any investment the common man can make.
Moray, Macau, China
If the mortgage lenders had insisted that borrowers had taken out mortgages paying back BOTH capital and interest instead of interest only loans , then less people would be facing negitive equity. It has been irresponsible lending by banks & building societies which has been bonus driven.
Douglas W Tott, Bruichladdich, Scotland
50K....... and the rest. I expect us to be back to 1994 levels before we see an upturn in the market. But housing is just the start of it you wait until credit cards and personal loans start de-faulting. Our economy is in a disasterous state and we will see a depression before it gets better.
Steve, Edgware, UK
your house isn't worth a penny for as long as you need to live in it - so here's to continued falls to help current non owners. only the estate agents on their percentage need worry.
alan lovedog, oxford, england
If the banks are crying out to the BoE for an additional £90 billion, how are they able to cut interest rates? I think there is more to this credit crunch than meets the eye. And whilst papers gloomly report falling house prices, it is good news for those yet to get on the ladder.
Nan, Reading, UK
Ann
Get with the progrmme, quickly, and keep up.
"The I'm alright Jack" attitude is little sympathy for many of us who are teetering on the edge of mortgage misery. There are no exemptions.
Have some thought for those of us who do not fall within the radius of Southwark .
Louise, Mirfield, West Yorkshire,
The National Housing Federation is a vested interest, and their predictions are already out of date - prices have dropped further than their predictions for 2008, and we're only halfway though.
Dan, Bristol,
Why the National Housing Federation forecast that it was expecting house prices in England to rise by 25% by 2013 is not one of your house market headlines Grainne ??
Mark, london,
Great news
Cheaper houses will mean more money in our pockets to spend on ourselves, rather than on huge mortgages. What can possibly be wrong with that?
Those who aspire to high prices are either vested interests, investors or the deluded.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
Ann, the Land Registry figures are 6+ months behind Haliwide. One would suggest that a broad brush statistic that applies to the UK as a whole is a much better indicator of the general market than extrapolating your single postcode.
Overall prices are falling and have much further to go.
Lenny, Coventry,
LR figures lag by six months. So dont worry, Ann, London, the prices in your area will be crashing soon too... Most of the properties thatare new to thew market in the Southwest are being priced at late 2005 levels... And we still have a way to go! Sellers, drop your prices or you will never sell!
Sam Smith, Southport, UK
LR figures lag by six months. So dont worry, Ann, London, the prices in your area will be crashing soon too... Most of the properties thatare new to thew market in the Southwest are being priced at late 2005 levels... And we still have a way to go! Sellers, drop your prices or you will never sell!
Sam Smith, Southport, UK
Getting tired of these broad-brush statistics which simply aren't applicable to the UK as a whole. I live in Southwark, London. Last Land Registry report (albeit a couple of months delayed but from ACTUAL sales figures) show my postcode's ave price 9% UP on this time last year. UK is a split market!
Ann, London,
And another report says they will drop 4% this year and go up 25% in the next five years.
Seems anyone can be an "expert" in the field of house price speculation!
I'm glad these "experts" aren't doctors operating on me !!
Richard Garland, Manchester, Greater Manchester