David Budworth
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The deepening slump in the housing market was underlined today when the Government revealed that prices in July fell for the ninth consecutive month to a record low.
The Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) said the average UK property lost 0.3 per cent of its value during the year to the end of July, compared to a rise of 0.6 per cent in the 12 months to June.
Despite the annual fall, house prices rose on a monthly basis, growing 1 per cent in July. The average UK house price now stands at £217,171 compared to £215,029 in June.
The regional picture also highlights pockets of growth. In Scotland, annual house prices rose 3.6 per cent in July.
However, Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: "The month-on-month rise in house prices in July reported by the DCLG is a surprise and at odds with other surveys, even allowing for the fact that the data is not seasonally-adjusted and prices tend to rise markedly in July.
He said: "Downward pressure on house prices continues to come from extremely weak market activity, stretched buyer affordability and tight lending conditions.
"Consequently, it seems odds-on that house prices will head downwards for some considerable time to come, particularly as lending conditions could well tighten further in the near term at least amid the current turmoil caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "
The year-on-year decline in house prices on on the DCLG measure is well below data released by both the Nationwide which recorded a fall of 10.5 per cent and Halifax which revealed a 12.7 per cent decline. Nationwide and Halifax figures are based on August data while the DCLG reported on the market in July.
However, experts point out that the DCLG provides lagging evidence on house prices as it calculates its index at the time when mortgages are completed.
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In North London, 400k equity = bought 1999/2000, sold 07 (2000 300/400k, 07 700/800k). 400k equity = 120k basic to buy the same house. Either people have bought another house, or they are renting while prices fall. 2-bed equity today max 200k. Who will buy a 3/4-bed house for 750k today?
Laurence, London,
Laurence, what on earth are you talking about? Your example is nonsense as it ignores the fact that only people with a large amount of equity (much, much more than £200k) would be looking for a house worth £800k (unless of course they did earn large salaries).
phil, london,
Robin and Phil, rent the property while waiting for what? For prices to go back to 07 levels? Those 07 prices were due to a 3 to 5-year lending feast that is not going to return. 800k house = 200k equity + 3 x 200k joint basic salaries (not bonuses). 1% of London couples makes this sort of money.
Laurence, London,
2 examples: 1 bed flat N7 bought May 07 240k, divorce, resold Aug 08 for 200k. b) Street of 30 same houses NW5. Last house Jul 07 775k. Accepted last week 645k for better cond house in same street, on market since Feb 08. Our estate agent neighbour did those 2 deals, so I believe him!
Ava, London,
There seems to be ignorance of the almost complete financial meltdown the world has seen recently, driven largely by securitisation of mortgages.
I'm suprised that anyone thinks that banks are going to follow their previous silly lending policies any time soon; therefore house prices will drop.
Robert, Hull,
Having tried to sell a flat this year I can only agree with G Galbraith. I could not sell my flat in 3 months 25% below peak values as it was ordinary. A place I looked at that was unusual went to closing in 1 week
S Brown, Aberdeen,
Laurence-'before the offer at another 10% less' - that's agreed but the point is not many are actually SELLING at those levels hence low vols! If buyers bid 80% less, with no trade, does that mean prices have fallen 80%?No.
Also, there must be reg. variations - rents in Crawley are 10% UP on 2007!
Robin, Hassocks,
Good to see the londoncentrics are out in force again. Most people live outside of London in this country and i can tell you that in the middle class town i live in prices are diving. Do you read the papers? We're going into a recession with unemployment rising etc. Soft landing? - dream on N,R & C
n hed, warwick, uk
Laurence, you are mixing up asking prices with selling prices. it's selling prices that count and these figures show on average they are barely down on last year. Sure there are big regional variations, but you house price crash fanatics always like to quote national averages!
phil, london,
Nick - In North London prices are 10% off last years - before the offer at another 10% less. Asking rents have gone down 10% since June because there are so many places to rent . Bank reports plan 30% off peak in London. That's even without destressed sellers. Can't imagine what it would be with.
Laurence, London,
What Nick says makes mathematical sense and also commonsense. What G Galbraith says makes mathematical sense but its nonsense.
Claire, London,
Nick, Camberley is largely correct. There will be some distressed sellers but many will wait or rent out (at higher rents let alone yields) than 2007. There will be some heavily discounted transactions but not that many - just very low volumes and a lot of hopeful buyers who can't get finance.
Robin, Hassocks,
Buy now while you can before they start going up, they wont fall any further and they're going to go up a lot!. OK, so you'll have to mortgage yourself for the next 40 years to get a 1-bed flat, but in two years time you'll need a 100-year mortgage! Buy now while you can or you'll be locked out!
Kirstie Bigbum, London,
I'm sure Mr Brown will find a way of keeping us up to the eye balls in debt. The UK economy survies on us selling over inflatetd houses to each other and spending the borrowed money. Boom and bust time!
steve, Leeds,
Only the people who have to sell are selling at the moment which is a small % that is why the house prices are holding up there is no volume so there is little change, the market will stagnate for a while but there will not be a large drop in prices.
nick, Camberley, UK
Stats produced from the same Goverment who says crime is falling!!!! Do they pluck these figures out of thin air?
mark, Leeds,
I concure with Patrick, and in addition, July 07 prices were heavily over inflatted. Also a government stat thats lagging todays reality which beforehand was based on an unrealistic asking price and the persuaded mind of a (brokered ) seller does not covince a buyer.
Toby, T Wells, England
only this govt. could claim a 0.3% yr on yr fall. It really does beggar belief.
My friend works in a nationwide estate agents offfice and most offices work on a 25% discount off mid July 07price if seller really wants a sale- but really ,no one is buying.
their jobs are going faster than houses!
mike, gloucester, uk
Do these stats take into account the 10-15% below asking price offers? Thats whats really going on. Sellers are still stubourn and marketing at last years price. To sell the average home these days requires the seller to accept way below that and they know it - i did.
Patrick, London,
A 10-12% fall at asking price point does not reveal real decline or fall at completion. Add another 15% and already the market value at sale point is dow to 20025% and falling so the artical scratches at the surface.
Nick, Parma,
"However, experts point out that the DCLG provides lagging evidence on house prices as it calculates its index at the time when mortgages are completed."
So it's probably the MOST accurate then (together with Land Registry and FT figures).
phil, london,
Banks don't want to go bankrupt. Valuing house at realistic levels would put them out of business or up for Nationalisation.
Artificial valuations and data manipulation are the only defence they have left.
Tony, Belfast,
Are these statistics based on transaction prices? If that is the case, I would argue that these stats are not very meaningful.
If the *value* of every single property in the UK dropped by 20%, but only higher-end properties are selling, the stats may show an increase in prices!
G Galbraith, London,