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House prices will continue to fall for another 12 months and will not bounce back to last year's levels until at least 2013, a leading economics group said today.
The value of the average home will fall by 25 per cent, or £50,000, to reach a low of £149,000 in autumn next year, despite the prospect of much lower interest rates, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said. House prices have already tumbled by more than 12 per cent in the past year, according to figures from Halifax, the lender. The CEBR, which has traditionally been bullish about the outlook for the housing market, said that prices may start to rise before Christmas next year, but that by 2012 the average value of a property would still be 3 per cent lower than last year.
Other economists have made even gloomier forecasts for housing. Capital Economics, the consultancy, has said that prices would fall by 35 per cent, peak to trough, although it also forecast a tentative recovery in 2010.
New evidence has emerged that homeowners are facing up to the realities of the housing market slump and a looming recession and accepting that their properties have fallen in value.
Hometrack, the property data business, found that the number of house sales agreed rose 5.3 per cent in October, the first increase since January. It said that the rise showed that resigned sellers are now willing to accept lower offers from bargain-hunting buyers. However, the new realism has done nothing to boost demand, according to the data, which showed a 3.3 per cent fall in buyers registering with agents.
The CEBR predicted that activity will fall again next year, with only 900,000 house sales being completed, down from 1.5 million last year, as shaky consumer confidence is further depressed by the economic downturn. However, it said that sales volumes would pick up sharply in 2010.
Ben Read, managing economist for the CEBR, said: “With high unemployment and confidence clearly shaken, while some buyers will return to the market, we don't expect to see prices come back quickly, despite improving credit conditions.”
Hometrack said that house prices have continued to fall — by 7.3 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent since September, dragged down by the continuing drought of mortgage finance.
Homeowners in London and the South West suffered the steepest price declines, of 8.6 per cent and 8.1 per cent, respectively, in the past 12 months, a Hometrack survey found. Owners of flats and maisonettes have suffered the sharpest falls overall, with average prices down by 8.3 per cent, compared with an average 6.8 per cent decline for detached properties.
Richard Donnell, director of research for Hometrack, said: “The outlook for demand is set to remain weak as consumers focus their attention on the economy. The expectation of a recession and rising unemployment will further undermine demand for housing and continued price falls are inevitable in the months ahead.”
A long road back
Knight Frank
UK house prices peaked in late 2007 and have fallen sharply since then. Knight Frank, the estate agent, believes that Britain is at least halfway through a process of price falls, with about 15 per cent of an estimated 30 per cent peak-to-trough decline already factored into prices. It expects prices to bottom out in late 2009 or early 2010. It forecasts average prices will not return to their 2007 peak until 2015, led by central London (2012) and concluded by Northern Ireland (2019).
Capital Economics
The consultancy had expected house prices to fall 35 per cent by the end of 2010, but recently concluded that the same drop would take place in a much shorter period. Prices are then predicted to stagnate for 18 months before a tentative recovery begins in 2011.
Savills
The estate agency expects house prices to fall by 25 per cent in 2008 and 2009, but expects the national picture to recover strongly by 2012, when, it says, prices will again reach the peak seen in 2007.
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andrew, leeds, west yorks
You are "displaying a basic lack of understanding of market forces."
The market can only be driven by people's ABILITY to buy.
People can't buy if they have no job OR no mortgage (at proper salary multiples) OR no deposit.
A very high % will fall into one of those 3
TT, Manchester, England
My sons just bought a house a very good price ,he will be well placed for the time when prices come back .Anyone who thinks house prices will not rise in the long term is displaying a basic lack of understanding of market forces .This is underpinned by the overwhelming desire of UK people to buy!
andrew, leeds, west yorks
And the rest!
Cheap money is NOT coming back any time soon.
BOE interest rate cuts won't be passed on.
Trackers are going up to compensate.
Minimum SVR %over base rate going up.
No more self cert (64% of 2007's mortgages).
10%+ deposit needed
Oh yes, cheap money will be here for christmas!
TT, Manchester, England
Cheap money is on the way with interest at 3 to 4% next year. Then the housing market will bounce back! No need to worry, as rental income is still good, particularly in London.
Peter, Liverpool, UK
As prices lower (yes, they have further to fall!) and interest rates tumble, 3% early 2009, buying will become cheaper than rent and the "clever dickies" hiding away in rented accommodation will come flooding out (most missing the bottom of the market). Watch early summer 2009!!!
Basil Bell, Bath,
A lot of talk of recession on here, Although i agree it is recession its hardly a bad one. Everything is still affordable and most people can remian living within their means. Comparing this to the 80's/90's recession is silly. House prices will fall and £150,000 ave house price sounds about rite
Sunny, Cov,
They won't rise, a whole generation can't afford to buy, the average person in the street has an average wage of 20k but the average house is 165k, do the maths! Don't hope that a housing shortage will eventually push up prices..don't we have half a million empty houses and a glut of houses for rent
carol, stamford,
Richard
I wish you luck
I think the bottom of the market will be 2012 to 2014 and that very much depends on the recession, sadly for yourself ( and i mean that - we all need to live ) what we have seen to date is credit Crunch correction of a bubble, what is coming is a natural Recession.
Peter, Aldershot, UK
I believe the market will reach its lowest by the end of 2009 and gradually rise again, but not to the extent that we have seen for the boom and bust.
I am an estate agent who is hanging on by my fingernail - not funny...
richard, Plymouth, UK
Patty -"Recovery from the '91 recession it was on the back of massive injections of easy money" - well, there's no sign of governments doing that right now is there, Hmmmm?
"Historics are no guide": so, 'Boom & Bust' doesn't repeat itself then? I'm sure I heard something similar from Mr. Broon :=)
Robin , Hassocks,
These people are specialists talking up their own jobs Recovery from the '91 recession it was on the back of massive injections of easy money and 110% mortgages. This will not be available to us again for some time. When it does price levels will return. Give it 10 years. Historics are no guide here
Patty O' Doors, Oxford,
Interesting article. House prices are way over inflated. Essentially it's a toxic mix of greedy banks and impatient buyers which lie at the bottom of this mess. Bring on low priced affordable homes and lets get out of the buy now hang over later payment cycle!
Mohan, London,
Why have you asked Estate Agents what they think? They said it wouldnt happen, then when it did it would only last 3 months, now its longer it will all be over the year after next.
Why cant the times ask an Independant Economist rather than EAs or Economists with Vested Intrests?
Peter, Aldershot, UK
I have already knocked prices back by about 20% here in Chard. The results is that as soon as the magic 20% figure is achieved the buyers are back. Savvy buyers picking up good quality properties at really good prices. Long term buying decsions based on common sense borrowing. It is good to see.
Mark Savill, Chard, Somerset
Absolute rubbish ! House prices will stabilise by Xmas and will beging to rise just after Easter. Low interest rates and the NEEDS of the financial industry will guarantee that ! Millions of people are in need of and are looking for homes. Financiers will definitely find ways of providing funds.
John Fisher, Edinburgh,
Really the vested interests are always optimistic. House prices have been at bubble prices fuelled by cheap and lax lending-few other reasons. What we are seeing is a return to normal levels of price in ratio to earnings. Why shoudl they return to 2007 levels?
david b, eastbourne,
Hmm. I admire the optimism in this article but I don't think house prices will be 'bouncing' upwards for a long, long time! The fact is, prices will keep falling until they reach levels that the banks are willing to lend mortages for - so there's a long way to go yet!
Daniel, Oxford,
I sell houses in Chard, Somerset and we have dropped our prices by about 20%. As soon as the magic 20% drop occurs buyers appear again! This time they are educated buyers, buying good property and at very good prices. They are also buying for the long term. That is the market as it should be!
Mark Savill, Chard, Somerset
They have called a short and shallow global recession. Thats the only way that prices can recover in 2010. They are obviously using Treasury GDP forecasts which are way off beam.
Michael, West Midlands,
Savills are dreaming again! House prices have already fallen 35% in some areas according to Property Snake. Until 100% mortgages become available again they will continue to fall. When people couldn't afford houses they went on a spending spree instead! Now the country is mired in debt!
sophie smith, london, uk
By return to peak I assume these experts are talking in nominal prices, i.e. without factoring in inflation. I suggest the real value of property in 2007 will not be reached again for decades, hopefully never.
L McKay , north Shields , uk