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Britain's housing market was hit by a fresh blow yesterday when it emerged that home sales plunged to a new low last month and the Nationwide Building Society said that its net mortgage lending had fallen by 70 per cent over the past six months.
The latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed that estate agents in England and Wales had sold an average of only 10.9 properties per firm in the 12 weeks to the beginning of November, with agents in London struggling to sell one house a fortnight. That is the lowest level of sales since the series began in 1978.
Nationwide, Britain's biggest building society, gave warning that, while its market share was slipping, the entire mortgage lending market would fall by 80 per cent this year.
Net new mortgage lending by Nationwide fell from £3.6billion to £1billion in the six months to September. Its share of the mortgage market slipped from 6.2 per cent to 5.6per cent.
Graham Beale, Nationwide's chief executive, challenged the Treasury claim that the society, along with the other seven banks taking part in the Government bailout plan, was obliged to maintain mortgage availability at 2007 levels. “There isn't a condition that says ‘Thou shalt lend at 2007 levels',” he said.
Hope is rising that the Bank of England's 1.5 point cut in the base rate last week may help to boost buyers' confidence. Experts said that “vulture buyers” - new buyers who settle only for a cut-price home - have already been tempted back to the fray.
A spokesman for RICS said: “Distressed sales are becoming a factor now. People are having to sell their homes because they cannot afford their mortgage or for other financial reasons and they are getting real about the price they can achieve.”
Home sales have been falling for more than a year as banks and building societies reduce mortgage lending to protect their margins during the credit crunch. Borrowers with a small deposit or a less than perfect credit record now struggle to get a home loan.
Many homebuyers are attending auctions in the hope of snapping up a bargain-basement property that has been repossessed by a bank. The number of reposessions is expected to rise by 50 per cent this year to 45,000.
About 20 per cent more estate agents now expect sales to increase, rather than decrease, in coming months as a result of more repossessed properties coming on to the market, RICS said.
A rise in sales would be a boost for estate agencies, which have been hit hard by the housing market downturn. Last week Standard & Poor's, the credit ratings agency, downgraded the rating of Countrywide, the UK's biggest estate agency, over fears that it could run out of cash in the next 12 months.
However, rising transactions will not soften the blow to homeowners. House prices, which have fallen 15per cent in the past year, are set to tumble further. Mr Beale forecast that prices would keep falling by 1 to 1.5 per cent a month well into 2009. He said that souring sentiment, particularly fears about job security, and a lack of credit would continue to depress prices but at some point falling capital values and lower loan costs would lead prices to bottom out. Some economists expect prices to fall 35 per cent before rebounding.
The mortgage market's seizure was highlighted yesterday as lenders continued to withdraw mortgage deals in spite of last week's base rate cut. There are now 2,989 deals available, down a fifth from 3,747 last week, according to Moneysupermarket.com.
There were more than 30,000 home loans on offer before the credit crunch began last summer.
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So put it in proper balanced perspective. The RICS say that 80% of their members expect house prices to fall or stagnate.
Austin Tassletine, South West , UK
However cheap a house sells for in the present market, the value will not increase in the forseeable future. Gone are the days when borrowers could get mortgages of 5 times income and 125% mortgages, and quite right too. They have nowhere near reached the bottom yet.
sophie smith, london, uk
If Marco had bought 10 years ago he would have made a killing even with the current drop in house prices - plus he would have paid off about 50k on his mortgage over that time. Normally people are better off buying if they can (the last 2 years being the exception of course!)
Matt, Oxford, UK
Richard - Sadly it goes both ways; the media stoked the bubble too, driving fear to buy. Homeowners forget that they salivated at the huge paper profit they were making. The media pushes the market too far both ways - as it will be on the way down to 50% - 40% of 2007 peak.
Jonathan, Farnham, UK
hello peeps-wake up and smell the coffee (not starbucks obviously) any industry that works on a percentage is always going to push for the most it can get - and is usually the 1st to bleat when it has gone too far.Please carry on reporting the facts -we need to get these parasites out of the system.
david devonport, Great Yarmouth, UK
I've been waiting ti get my foot on the ladder for 10 years. In the meantime I've saved up nearly 60k but still am not considering buying. Only a crazy person would think of buying right now. Everyone is reporting that prices will continue to fall. Great, I'll continue saving in the meantime!
Marco Calore, Cardiff, UK
NOW will they see sense and cut or abolish this Stamp Duty Land Tax?
Sue Doughty, Twyford, UK
The media is not always as negative as Richard suggests - to be fair to the Times and other media, they were very positive about the housing market before the crash, even though it was patently obvious that prices had to fall!
David Scott, Loughborough,
The doom merchants are the Chartered Surveyors and estate agents because they are suffering. Didn't hear them speak up when prices were going through the roof and spiraling out of reach of most people. Prices must be allowed to fall further.
Hamad Lone, London, England
I guess it's not quite time to buy yet. I got to improve my credit rating by a few points only, then apply for a mortgage and will be homeowner for a bargain price. It pays to wait. That's indeed a quite positive outlook.
Morgan, Bristol, United Kingdom
RICS surveys thrive on headless chickenism. In early 2008 they were in denial that prices would fall, & seemed to think that all would be lovely again soon. Their property valuers hugely overvalued property particularly in 2007, & stupidly boosted houseowners' price expectations. Nemesis is here..
David, London, UK
Well done The Times. What part in this crisis has the media played? Huge. Forever seeking out the most negative views. Not just with housing, but also the wider economy. Is anyone else sick of media negativity and its damaging impact on our livelihoods? Other more positive views must be aired.
Richard, Southampton,
Great! Have they reduced their "Fees" accordingly to "Stimulate Demand"?
paul, manchester, UK