Rebecca O'Connor
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First-time buyers hoping that falls in house prices will mean they finally make it on to the housing ladder may be disappointed — because the size of deposit required by lenders means that by the time first-timers have saved up, buy-to-let investors with big deposits will have snapped up all the bargains.
This was the bleak prediction yesterday from Savills, the estate agent, on the outlook for aspiring homeowners.
Savills said that it did not expect mortgage availability to improve for first-time buyers until at least 2010, by which time, it predicts that house prices will be on their way back up, meaning that would-be homeowners could miss out on the chance to secure their first home at a good price.
Marcus Dixon, of Savills, said: “Essentially, they will have no choice but to just save up. While we do expect that the mortgage market will ease, this will probably not be for two or three years.”
The average deposit put down by a first-time buyer has risen from 10 per cent of a property's value to 16 per cent in the past year, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, as lenders have tightened the screws. The number of first-time buyer loans fell to a 24-year low in September, having halved from 28,200 in September 2007 to 13,400.
Although there are some mortgages available for borrowers with smaller deposits, interest rates are uncompetitive, at about 6.59 per cent. On a £100,000 loan, this would cost a buyer £681 a month - £160 a month more than a borrower with a 40percent deposit would pay on the 3.99 per cent best-buy deal available to them on the same loan.
Richard Morea, of London & Country, the mortgage broker, said: “Lack of a deposit, coupled with many thinking that prices are still falling, mean there are still very few first-time buyers coming back into the market.”
However, over recent weeks, estate agents have begun to report increased interest among first-time buyers in areas where prices at the lower end of the market have already fallen by as much as 20 per cent. Indications that sellers are now accepting offers significantly below asking price are encouraging those with enough cash, often from their parents, to make inquiries.
Halifax, the UK's biggest lender, said that affordability is improving “significantly” and would continue to do so in coming months. The house price to average earnings ratio has fallen below 5.0 for the first time in 4 years.
In recent weeks, agents have highlighted properties that have sold at a significant discount to the asking price. In Manchester, a new-build apartment originally sold for £195,950 has recently been sold at auction for £75,000.
Robert Bartlett, chief executive of Chesterton, the London estate agency, said: “We are seeing a small increase in the number of transactions.”
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With sterling so low and prices going down, investors are bound to pile in soon. Equities & similar investments look so shaky that bricks and mortar will reign again. You can't get away from that. Unfortunately first time buyers and pre-2005 "sold-to-renters" will end up paying more than they want.
mac, Manchester, UK
The collapse in the supply of new housing is creating the conditions for a new house price spiral.
I think we will see the housing market start to stabilise in the Spring of 2009. Easter is traditionally the peak of housing transacion volumes, and by then mortgage rates will have fallen further.
Majeed, Manchester,
Rich, spell Worcester correctly please. You do live there after all.
I do not understand your comments. Now is the WORST time for FTB's to buy. See for example Property The End of The Affair, on I Player.
Austin Tassletine, South West , UK
Rubbish where are these investors going to get their deposits from. Last time I heard their equity was being wipped out, their gift deposits shunned, one day remortgages gones and their portfolios increasingly repossessed.
These overvalued prices will fall well past 2010 & be down 50%+ from peak.
Gavin , London,
Investors may "snap" properties up, but I suspect first time buyers will "cackle" as those properties continue to fall in value while the investors go "pop" (bankrupt). Prices at auction are now at 2002 levels or below typically - but that still leaves a big premium over 1997 values.
Mark, Woking, UK
It is expected behaviour for a desperate estate agent to try to worry first time buyers into buying too soon, but I don't think it is at all reasonable to present a vested interest as news.
The opportunity to buy at a good price is going to last for years, but it is not quite yet upon us.
Alex, Reading,
by December -Feb there will be a 45% increase in properties for sale from Lenders via auction... first timers will miss out as the collapse will take property away from estate agents directly to auction... so forget capitalising out of the loss of others homes and lifestyle unless you have 45% depos
Nick Garrett, piacenza, Italy
The govt needs to guarantee for 12 months ftbuyers equity if they were to buy a house in next 3 months. Irony is prices will go up. And of course banks need to lend 5-10% again.
This is not global, its banks squeezing life out Britain. Sort them out!!
Rich, worcster,