Anne Ashworth: Analysis
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
The latest house price performance figures would seem to make dispiriting reading - across the country. Land Registry statistics show that prices have fallen, for example, by 11.4 per cent in Richmond upon Thames, by 10.2 per cent in Reading, and by 8.1 per cent in Rotherham, sending thousands more households into negative equity.
Some groups have been forecasting house price declines for most of the past decade and have finally been proven right.
But there are hordes of bargain-hunters, specifically those who want to acquire properties with lots of “kerb appeal”, at the lowest possible prices, “before they see the light at the end of the tunnel” - that is, in the period just before the recovery arrives. The motive for this speculation is this: when signs of recovery become visible, more timorous buyers will be encouraged back into the market, propelling prices upwards.
There is considerable risk in the “before you see the light” strategy, but, if timed correctly, it also offers the potential for considerable gain.
The search for deep discounts is taking some of these thrill-seeking buyers to property auctions where, in the opinion of some commentators, prices are already as low as they can go, in some cases. Auctioneers report that their sale rooms are filling up with investors and would-be owner occupiers, including some first-time buyers accompanied by their parents who are supplying advice and finance.
Some repossessed properties, sold at auction by lenders, sell for about 60 per cent of the price paid by the original owner who continues to be liable for 12 years for the shortfall debt between the sales proceeds of a former home and what os owed to the lender.
Another sort of bargain-hunter will be also stalking the streets for competitively priced buys this year, but these will be the streets of Belgravia, Chelsea and Kensington. For wealthy foreigners - whose spending power has been further enhanced by the descent of sterling - “the market has probably halved”, according to Charlie Ellingworth of Property Vision, a firm that finds properties for such buyers.
He adds: “It's worth remembering that it was just such a currency devaluation that kicked off the market recovery in 1992-93."
Yolande Barnes, of Savills, makes a similar point. She says: “In previous downturns, it has always been overseas investors who pulled the prime London market out of the doldrums.
"An analysis of the combined effects of the housing market and currency fluctuations shows that prime London properties would now cost 50 per cent less to a new Japanese investor and 40 per cent less to a Hong Kong, Singaporean, Taiwanese, Swiss or eurozone investor. With global bargains like these, the start of the recovery may well be driven by equity-rich investment from the Far East or Europe.”
Whatever turn the market takes in the next few months, most homeowners will be bystanders. Many would admit privately that they see the downbeat house price numbers as the perfect excuse to stay put, so avoiding the expense and stress involved in climbing to a higher rung on the housing ladder.
In the last few months of 2008, homewares retailers, such as Marks & Spencer, reported increasing demand for cosy merchandise in cheerful colours, evidence of a domestic cocooning trend. For those with no intention of moving, there is no need to decorate in the neutral beige and taupe tones that are always recommended to those putting their homes up for sale.
In one sense, at least, the future for homes is bright.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more




The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
If we did not have a T.V. a radio or a news paper I wonder if we would be in this panic state. as I would say what you do not know will not harm you.
marco giannasi, glasgow, scotland
If you're buying as an investment, your income is in a falling currency.
So unless you choose to live in Britain, why buy a property here? But if the pound rises, the cost of living will rise for any expatriate living in Britain with their primary assets abroad.
Cross-border finances are tough!
CP, UK,
Very few foreigners with money will be attracted to invest in post credit crunch UK. The pound has fallen dramatically exactly for this reason. A change in fortunes for London property may occur in 2012 with the Olympics but in the intervening time the crash of the housing bubble will play havoc.
john, milton keynes,
More property ramping in one of the fastest falling property markets we have ever seen. Why are these bargains they are only being sold at realsitic values?
What foreign investors are going to invest in a failing economy?
david b, eastbourne, uk
Anne.
You sound like someone with a Buy To Let portfolio that is crumbling.
I tell you what why don't you buy some property if you think it is a bargain. You said it was a good time to buy 3 months ago and prices have fallen 8% since then.
If its ok with you i will wait for 50% off.
Jeremy Stone, London , UK
Awful article ...
Auctioneers report that their sale rooms are filling up with investors and would-be owner occupiers, including some first-time buyers accompanied by their parents who are supplying advice and finance
In a normal market, FTBs buy themselves, not mummy and daddy!
Paul, Camberley,