Anne Ashworth: Analysis
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The latest house price performance figures would seem to make dispiriting reading - across the country. Land Registry statistics show that prices have fallen, for example, by 11.4 per cent in Richmond upon Thames, by 10.2 per cent in Reading, and by 8.1 per cent in Rotherham, sending thousands more households into negative equity.
Some groups have been forecasting house price declines for most of the past decade and have finally been proven right.
But there are hordes of bargain-hunters, specifically those who want to acquire properties with lots of “kerb appeal”, at the lowest possible prices, “before they see the light at the end of the tunnel” - that is, in the period just before the recovery arrives. The motive for this speculation is this: when signs of recovery become visible, more timorous buyers will be encouraged back into the market, propelling prices upwards.
There is considerable risk in the “before you see the light” strategy, but, if timed correctly, it also offers the potential for considerable gain.
The search for deep discounts is taking some of these thrill-seeking buyers to property auctions where, in the opinion of some commentators, prices are already as low as they can go, in some cases. Auctioneers report that their sale rooms are filling up with investors and would-be owner occupiers, including some first-time buyers accompanied by their parents who are supplying advice and finance.
Some repossessed properties, sold at auction by lenders, sell for about 60 per cent of the price paid by the original owner who continues to be liable for 12 years for the shortfall debt between the sales proceeds of a former home and what os owed to the lender.
Another sort of bargain-hunter will be also stalking the streets for competitively priced buys this year, but these will be the streets of Belgravia, Chelsea and Kensington. For wealthy foreigners - whose spending power has been further enhanced by the descent of sterling - “the market has probably halved”, according to Charlie Ellingworth of Property Vision, a firm that finds properties for such buyers.
He adds: “It's worth remembering that it was just such a currency devaluation that kicked off the market recovery in 1992-93."
Yolande Barnes, of Savills, makes a similar point. She says: “In previous downturns, it has always been overseas investors who pulled the prime London market out of the doldrums.
"An analysis of the combined effects of the housing market and currency fluctuations shows that prime London properties would now cost 50 per cent less to a new Japanese investor and 40 per cent less to a Hong Kong, Singaporean, Taiwanese, Swiss or eurozone investor. With global bargains like these, the start of the recovery may well be driven by equity-rich investment from the Far East or Europe.”
Whatever turn the market takes in the next few months, most homeowners will be bystanders. Many would admit privately that they see the downbeat house price numbers as the perfect excuse to stay put, so avoiding the expense and stress involved in climbing to a higher rung on the housing ladder.
In the last few months of 2008, homewares retailers, such as Marks & Spencer, reported increasing demand for cosy merchandise in cheerful colours, evidence of a domestic cocooning trend. For those with no intention of moving, there is no need to decorate in the neutral beige and taupe tones that are always recommended to those putting their homes up for sale.
In one sense, at least, the future for homes is bright.
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