This is short for “ba’ad al-intikhabat” which means “after the elections”. Weddings are postponed until after the elections, as are business contracts, poetry recitals, the football season and the rebuilding of towns and villages wrecked by months of insurgency. Also on hold are big projects financed by the $18 billion US aid package as well as the $6 billion pledged by Europe, Japan and the Arab states.

“I was supposed to get married at the end of Ramadan,” says Reza, a 34-year-old engineer who has returned home to Baghdad after spending almost 20 years in exile in Sheffield where his parents had sought refuge from Saddam Hussein.

But after talks with the family of the bride, Leena, the two families decided that a big wedding party could attract terrorists looking for targets that could help them capture the headlines.

In many parts of the so-called Sunni triangle, where insurgents are active, visitors find abandoned buildings and equipment, half-built walls and roads that lead nowhere. But even there the young men hope the election will mark the revival of the projects that once gave them jobs.

“We have five luxury hotels ready to open in various parts of Iraq,” says a Kuwaiti businessman who leads an investment group. “Our plan was to open for Ramadan (last October). But we decided to wait until the elections show which way the wind will be blowing.”

Never have so many people pinned so much hope on a single day of voting, January 30, that is to give Iraq its first freely elected parliament plus provincial and regional councils.

The election will not only set the course for the 25m Iraqis but could also determine a new balance of power in the Middle East. Beyond Iraq, the election will confirm or challenge America’s status as a superpower. Success could boost President George W Bush’s prestige and encourage local democratic forces. Failure would mark the beginning of a decline in American influence, and revitalise reactionary forces determined to keep Muslim nations out of the modern world.

“This is the big enchilada,” says a senior Bush administration official in Washington. That view is echoed by Iyad Allawi, Iraq’s interim prime minister, who is heading one of the 22 lists of candidates competing for votes. “This is one battle we must win if we are to win the war for a new Iraq,” he says.

The determination of the US-led coalition and the interim government to hold the election is matched by the firm resolve of the insurgents and their terrorist allies to disrupt it. In parts of Baghdad and the Sunni triangle, a slogan has appeared on some walls: “Min al-Sanduq il al-sanduq!” (From the ballot box into the coffin.)

Last month Osama Bin Laden issued a fatwa — an edict — declaring democracy to be a violation of Islam and called on the Iraqis not to allow a government based on the votes of the people, rather on divine will.

The insurgents have already killed 17 election officers and nine would-be candidates. Last week they gunned down the governor of the Baghdad province. So widespread is fear of the terrorists that the United Nations’ election supervisory team has been forced to dismiss most of its Iraqi security staff after it became clear they had been co-opted by the insurgents through intimidation.

To make sure things go smoothly, the US has brought in 15,000 more troops. Still, the 160,000 American and coalition troops in total represent a small force in a country the size of France with 18,000 villages and almost 300 towns and cities.