An under-reported event took place at the end of last month. A leading Republican candidate went to address the evangelical Global Pastors Network in Orlando, Florida. The network is a large group, aiming to set up 5m churches worldwide in the next decade. Its leaders believe the apocalypse is coming soon and that their efforts at evangelisation might help accelerate the moment of rapture, when good Christians will be whisked to heaven to meet Jesus.
None of this is particularly noteworthy. The fastest growing theme in American evangelicalism is the pre-millennialist movement, while Left Behind, the fictional books dramatising the “end times”, are the bestselling adult series in America. What was surprising was that the Republican candidate addressing them was none other than Rudy Giuliani, the pro-choice, pro-gay, divorced Catholic former mayor of New York.
Giuliani gushed over his religious-right audience, according to an account on the evangelical website Crosswalk.com. “The principles of leadership apply universally,” he said, “whether in business, government, a sports team or a church. It is wonderful to see you improving yourselves in a way to make your ministries more effective. It is a miracle what you do.” He went on to stress his own faith in dealing with the crisis of 9/11.
When asked if he was running for president he said: “Only God knows. I’ll know better in a year whether I can fully commit to that process.” The pastors said they’d pray for him. Giuliani replied: “I appreciate you. I can tell you from my heart how much I appreciate what you are doing: saving people, telling them about Jesus Christ and bringing them to God.”
Take it from me: if Giuliani is talking Jesus, he’s running for president. He hasn’t been making much of a public splash, but he has been quietly traversing the country, heading up fundraisers and meeting the Republican base.
This outreach to evangelical Christians is not necessarily cynical. Many evangelicals in America do amazing work for the poor at home and abroad and deserve the thanks Giuliani gave. And insofar as he shares their Christian faith, he has no need to squirm.
But what’s more interesting is how receptive many of these grass-roots Republicans are to him. The polls of Republican voters two years before the primaries should be taken with a pinch of salt, but they are striking nonetheless. Giuliani is the most popular potential candidate in the whole bunch, which can only mean many evangelical Christians support him.
Giuliani currently has 33% support, above his nearest rival John McCain with 28%. The most popular religious-right candidate is George Allen, the senator of Virginia, on 7%. Giuliani beats McCain even though Giuliani is pro-choice on abortion and McCain is pro-life.
Giuliani has also walked in gay pride parades in New York and, after his messy divorce from his first wife, lived for a while in a town house with a gay male couple. He has performed in drag — and rather well I might add. On a whole slew of issues he is at odds with the Christian-right base. Yet the Gallup poll showed him beating McCain 31% to 26% among self-described “conservatives”.
So why are they for him? The most plausible answer is that, since 9/11, national security has trumped social issues in the highly pro-military South and Rocky Mountain west. Both McCain and Giuliani have impeccable reputations as hawks in the war on terror, but McCain has a long and bitter history with his party’s base. Many of them despise him, and the feeling is mutual. In 2000 McCain openly blamed the religious right for his loss to Bush in South Carolina. Giuliani has no such baggage.
But the other main theme emerging in American politics is competent management. Last week the House Republicans issued a blistering report on the government’s response to Hurricane Katrina. Many conservatives are well aware the Bush administration has been nothing short of a fiscal catastrophe. There is a hunger for someone who knows how to manage and get government to actually work, someone who can pull the levers of administrative power to make things happen and someone who knows how to balance a budget.
Giuliani is known for two things: turning a chaotic New York City into a bourgeois paradise; and for sterling leadership in an existential security crisis, 9/11. His CV is almost designed for this moment.
Moreover, Republican base voters know that the strident religiosity of the current president has alienated half the country. Not all of them are religious maniacs, demanding that every tenet of their faith be enshrined in government policy.
Allen, the leading religious-right candidate, suffers somewhat because he is so much like Bush: a likeable frat boy from the South. Others such as Sam Brownback, senator for Kansas, are so extreme they would never win a general election. So Giuliani only needs to reassure the Christian base that he is not actively hostile and he has a great opening to exploit.
His appeal, moreover, reaches both red and blue America. Another new poll, by Fox News, analysed how polarising the various candidates are. The poll looked at approval rates for candidates among their own party members and independents. Unsurprisingly, Hillary Clinton polarises. She gets 82% support among Democrats, but only 48% among independents and even less among Republicans.
McCain does better — with 57% support among independents — but is not so beloved in his own party, garnering only 64%. Giuliani does better than both, with Clinton-like levels of approval in his own ranks (81%) and McCain-like support among independents (63%). Americans are a little exhausted by the red-blue divide: Giuliani would help them with a touch of purple.
The caveats remain, of course. Giuliani has never been subjected to a national campaign, while Clinton and McCain have. New York reporters hint at all sorts of mini-scandals and ethical matters that might come back to haunt Rudy on a national stage.
His strong candidate for Bush’s homeland security department, Bernie Kerik, had to withdraw quickly under a blizzard of ethical queries. Giuliani’s inclusive social views could also prove fatal in a party dominated by anti-gay sentiment. His first wife is not too thrilled with him, either. He has a temper. He has made enemies in his time as mayor. He may look strongest now — before he has been drubbed in a brutal campaign.
And yet he squares the Republican circles in ways nobody else can. He’s inclusive but respectful of religion, a great manager and executive while also a powerful speaker and, above all, a man who stood up to terror in a way seared into the national — and even global — consciousness.
If I were advising him I’d urge him to pick a running mate who possesses major foreign policy experience to offset his lack of expertise. A Giuliani-Rice ticket? It’s what Democratic nightmares are made of.
