Mark Henderson, Science Editor
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Choose your own priorities on our interactive table
Issues: conflict l global warming l disease l hunger l terrorism
Imagine that you are Bill Gates. Not to daydream about what to buy with a $58 billion fortune, but to consider how, like the Microsoft entrepreneur, you might give much of it away.
There are dozens of global challenges that could benefit from your philanthropy, but large as your financial resources are, they are not limitless. What would be your priorities? This week The Times is asking readers for their answers — while the Copenhagen Consensus project invites eminent economists to do the same.
Would your $50 billion be best spent on preventing the three great plagues of the modern era — malaria, tuberculosis and HIV, which claim tens of millions of lives each year?
Or might it be better to fund nutrition in developing countries, where almost 150 million children are underweight for their age and 200 million are chronically malnourished?
What about climate change, which many scientists consider to be the gravest threat of all? Should you invest in improving renewable energy technologies, to reduce reliance on fossil fuels?
Your choice would obviously be influenced by your social and political outlook, and by your perceptions of which challenges matter the most. But you might also want to be confident of getting a decent bang for your buck.
Is it possible to establish which of these challenges can be solved most cost-effectively, so that your generosity does the greatest good for the greatest number?
That is the question that a panel of eight economists, including five Nobel laureates, will attempt to answer next week, as the Copenhagen Consensusdeliberates in the Danish capital.
Over the coming days, they will hear presentations from 30 specialists in particular global problems, each of whom will make the case for a menu of solutions in their fields.
Ten topics have been chosen for debate: terrorism; conflict; malnutrition and hunger; education; the role of women; air pollution; subsidies and trade barriers; disease; sanitation and water; and global warming. The panel will decide on a league table, to guide investments by philanthropists, charities and governments. The exercise is the brainchild of Bjørn Lomborg, the controversial Danish statistician whose 2001 book The Skeptical Environmentalist upset many scientists and green activists with a revisionist view of ecological issues.
The outcome of the first Copenhagen Consensus, held in 2004, proved equally contentious, not because of HIV’s place at the head of the list, but because of what was at the bottom.
Climate change is a reality, the panel argued, but the Kyoto Protocol was not a cost-effective way of addressing it. Limiting greenhouse-gas emissions would postpone the problem only slightly, and at unacceptable cost.
Some commentators considered this to be a thought-provoking injection of rationalism to an emotional debate. Others dismissed it as the consensus of a “random group” of economists lined up to endorse Dr Lomborg’s well-known scepticism about Kyoto.
Further criticism has been directed at the merit of considering these issues purely in terms of cost and benefit. Factors such as social justice, ecological stewardship and political acceptability are also important, but are exceptionally difficult to price.
Other development economists, such as Jeffrey Sachs, of Columbia University, think it misleading to present action on global warming, hunger and malaria as “either-or” options, when all these need to be addressed.
Dr Lomborg recognises these concerns, but argues that his initiative remains useful. “Clearly, there are other issues that matter as well as cost-benefit analysis,” he said. “But unless you put prices and values on things, it is difficult to make informed choices.
“What we’re doing is pricing up the menu. That doesn’t mean you have to pick the cheapest dish, or even the one that’s best value, but you want to know what they cost. Of course, it’s hard to compare carbon footprints with deaths from infectious diseases, but we often compare apples with oranges in everyday life. The challenge to these economists is to compare unlike with unlike as best they can.
“Too often, it’s the most photogenic and PR-friendly options that get priority. We want to step back and ask what’s actually most worthwhile.”
A sample of the solutions offered to five of the challenges are presented here. You can view a full list and choose your own priorities on our interactive table. We also want alternative answers, and your views about the process. Is it really useful to judge these problems in terms of cost and benefit? What other factors need to be taken into account?
The best contributions will be published next Saturday — alongside the economists’ prescriptions for the great challenges of our time.
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Have we exceeded the earth's carrying capacity for humans? maybe, maybe not. if we have (or when we do) we'll see a population decline until we reach equilibrium. adapt or die.
Tony, Reston, Virginia, USA
One of the principal causes of global warming is deforestation. The forests are also a key environmental stabiliser not only regionally but globally. Without the South American and African rainforests, these regions will become deserts with huge implications for global warming. We need to buy them.
Leigh Collingwood, Newbury, England
Just think what you could do with the trillions of dollars wasted in Iraq.
Bob Shore, Buffalo, NY
The big issues mentioned are only the physical effects of something occurring in the spiritual realm, says SSRF. So the real question is - what is required (money or not) to bring about a change in the spiritual root cause of these problems? The solution: follow righteousness and spiritual practice.
Ana, Zagreb, Croatia
The most important aspect of this debate is to find way of tackling all these problems simultaneously. For instance, Malaria and poverty are related. Education and nature preservation are related as well. If this team of economists are able to find this main strategy this meeting will be productive.
Eduardo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
I am so pleased to see so many people saying overpopulation. Constant lebensraum for humans at the expense of every other living creature is causing a holocaust of nature. We need to curtail our numbers and our demands on the earth if we hope to save it.
smith, reading,
Feed and educate everyone. A well fed person has the ability to go to school, concentrate and learn. They then become educated and can fight the injustices within their own borders, no need for the great and good USA to invade with troops just help them grow food. Well fed people do amazing things
Garrath, Exeter, England
How do you decrease population? Simple. Maximum of 2 babies per woman. Maximum of 1 for high density areas of the world. Use the money to police and educate. Sounds all too simple? Maybe that's because it is that simple. We just don't know it yet.
Nikki, London,
1:Honest and open inspection of all countries by Amnesty International
2: Equal schooling for both sexes
3: Eradication of illiteracy
4: Public libraries accessible to all with no censorship
5:Consideration for others but zero tolerance of human rights abuses in any form whatsoever
Bob Mcgrath, den haag, Netherlands
Just one question,
Everyone who is talking about overpopulation.
What are YOU doing about it?
Personally i plan to either not have children or at the very maximum have one.
If we all had one child per adult then the population problem would at least stop growing.
Mark, Exeter,
Fundamental in confronting these global challenges is the need to tackle the poverty of leadership in Africa. Most governments there lack the competent, honest and determined leaders needed to lay the foundations for sustainable economic growth and to promote social justice.
willie reid, high wycombe,
How about the dangers of incremental socialism. Other parts of the world have first hand experience but America and Western Europe don't get it. The experience with North/South Korea and East/West Germany should be enough.
Per Capita$:
South K $24,600
North K $1,900
1294% is not rounding
Jeff, Boston, USA
Population - yes, it is among our most serious problems, and exacerbates most of the others. It is difficult to resolve this sensitive issue, so we need a coordinated multifaceted approach, including education and economic incentives. Politicians avoid this one, so we need NGO-driven efforts.
Glenn Richard, Ridge, NY, USA
use 40bn to finance research into alternative to crude oil will eventually help 3rd world governments to direct resources into infrastructure such as housing, education, and health. these are the key components of good living and less diseases.
isaac macdonald addae, girona, spain
Unbelievable, that there is NO listing for population REDUCTION education programs. At what point do we finally recognize that the booming human population has long ago outstripped the supply capacity of the Earth and caused massive ecological disturbance that damages human health?
D Smith, Seattle, USA
The number one item on the Copenhagen Consensus should be global population control. We will only achieve good management of the worlds limited resources if we manage the population laying claim to them. Benefits: less hunger, terrorism, global warming, conflict. Obvious solution - why ignore it
Paul, Leamington, UK
76 bn to upgarde nuclear weapons.....spend half of it in Britain to get the infrastructure sorted out (public transport, schooling health) and the other half on education, environment and birth control in the 3 world
T. Andre, London,
Population Control - If this can be done many of the other problems in your list fix themselves.
Paul Steele, Ahipara, New Zealand
I would spend it on Newcastle United, so we might have a chance of getting to the Carling Cup semi-final...
Kevin, Toon, England
While our government is willing to invest 50bn to shore up the banks dodgy lending decisions and encourage continued profligacy, while being unable to prevent a child starving to death in Birmingham or teenagers being knifed in London, I find this discussion completely pointless.
Sheila, somerset,
Create an NGO to work with governments, corporations, educators, and existing NGOs globally and locally to address these problems through academic, research, and in-the-field internship programs and outreach. Board representing a range of disciplines and political views sets and revises priorities.
Glenn Richard, Ridge, NY, USA
Isn't weapon trade the big issue ?
Before population issues?
Sebastien, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
With only $50 billion to spend (about $7.50 per human), it may be difficult to directly address some of the issues. But it may be enough to focus on creating new technolgies that would make it easier/cheaper to solve the larger problem and points to act as catalysists for larger scale system changes
James, London, UK
Unless we learn to love each other, all these problems will continue. Aggression stems from mother-infant separation.
Support normal birth; keep mums and babies together; enable full-term breastfeeding to maximise everyone's health. Result: social awareness & care for other people & environment.
Alison Blenkinsop, Aldershot, UK
we live in a world that finds it a convenience to have a selectic memorie.how else can you esplain that nowing already the state we poluted this wonderfull planet we call home,we then go about find new ways of killing it just a bit faster.we all can make a positive impact on the planet,please.
carla freitas, manchester, england
How oh how could you leave out over population? I can't even rank the others. Without a reduction in over population the rest are just band aids.
Lora Stillwell, london, uk
Global issues will fail to improve unless governments and institutions get rid of corrupion and co-orperate with one another. Failure to do this is the reason why change will not occur, no matter how much money is given.
The politics must first catch up with the economics.
Pascale, London,
I'm glad to know many people here consider overpopulation (or, to be precise, uncontrolled population increase in sub-Saharan Africa-almost all 30 most fertile countries lie there) as the most important problem. Everything else derives from it or it's secondary (except global warming).
Ilias Vitalis, Rome, Italy
Daphne Kenward: nice idea, but the USA doesn't matter half as much as you think it does, and Obama has feet of clay like all politicians. We don't get to vote here anyway.
Overpopulation is the real threat as it drives everything else. Could a new Black Death save the planet?
Dave, Slough,
Conflict: There is always conflict
Global Warming: Change is part of natural cycles and the Sun influences more than "man".
Disease: Always worth putting money into.
Hunger: This is the most important Issue, yet Foreign Government Corruption prevents Resolution.
Terrorism: Unpreventable
Andy T, England, UK,
Aren't most of these problem interlinked?Slow global warming and crops will not be destroyed by floods, better nutricien, better health, fairer economies, less poverty, less conflict, less terrorism...I agree that overpopulation is not the problem .. there is plenty to go round if we share
Kate, London,
At the root of the whole problem is the exponential growth in human population. If everyone reached Western standards of living, we would need three planets the size of the World. We can either reduce standards of living or limit population. If we do not famine or disease will do it for us.
Tom Moss, Camberley, Surrey
How about poverty?
Overpopulation comes about when people are poor. The easiest way to reduce family size is not through access to contraception, it's when people believe their children will live to be adults.
Rose, Glasgow,
Although the current generaton of politicians cannot or dare not accept reality. It is heartening to see that commentators here DO see what is fundametal wrong with humanity - NUMBERS. China is the only country in the world to act responsibly on this issue, for all her faults.
Humanist, Leeds, UK
Copenhagen - Are we consulting the right people?
Surely it is obvious that the past 150 years of consumer economics is the cause of today's chaos. So does that make the world's leading economists the right people to consult? Add long-term agricultural investment, science and training to the list.
Peter Sutton, Guildford, England
It would be a huge help if all the major religions would preach smaller families rather than encouraging the opposite
to increase their market share.
Gareth, St Albans, UK
Maybe stop continously feeding the hungry, giving medicine to the sick. Lets stop the charity, continously making every poor person a charity case.
Its time the world enabled the poor to make something of themselves, teach them how to create wealth that they may feed, heal and clothe themselves.
Sam, Manchester, London
All these issues are important..they affect people. Money is just a tool for mankind to use to find solutions.Some issues are caused by people themselves. Mankind's heart needs changing. When Jesus comes into a man's heart, his eternity is assured, love is born, God breathed ideas possible.
Beth Webb, Laguna NIguel, CA, USA
There are now too many people demanding too much out of the Earth. Every effort must be put into exploring new ways of creating food and energy without causing irrevocable environmental damage. Science may simply not have the answer to this dilemma but this is what funding should be directed at.
Simon Merritt, Bournemouth, UK
There is much talk of saving the planet but we need to save life on earth. The root cause of the problems up for discussion is the human race which is growing at a rate of 77m p.a. The most urgent need is for education to encourage smaller families; the rest is short term sticking plaster.
Colin Freeman, Hornchurch, England
Education on birth control; providing free contraception .. if the population problem is not solved we can only expect more of the same .. more crime, more disease, more starvation .. the world does not have limitless assets.
alice hudson, quimper, france
First develop new technologies shifting our reliance away from oil addressing the needs of a booming population, shifting control away from volatile middle eastern countries and the foolish world leaders who enable them. Then food tech to feed the masses and then education to resolve conflict.
Farrukh, Woking,
Overpopulation is a problem and nature has a way of dealing with it, famine,drought,disease . But man can play its part has well with war and of course contraception and sex education. So sometimes we should not interfere and let a natural balance occur .
Clive, Dartford, Kent
It appears to be worthwhile to tackle ALL your stated Global challenges. But these corrected would make the unstated challenges worse, namely, acceptable standards for Food and Water, Population and Wildlife.
David Edgington, Poole, England
Count me as another vote for Gareth. If we cannot solve the problem of overpopulation, no other problem is soluble. But if we can solve it, the other problems will be solved along with it.
Robert Firth, Singapore,
Overpopulation is a problem is it? Well how do you propose to deal with it? Should we start culling humanity now? BTW Galileo spoke out against religious dogma not scientific beliefs, the reason no scientist speaks out against global warming is because there is too much evidence supporting it.
John Leighton, Brisbane, Aust.
I am astounded that Overpopulation is not on the list of Global Challenges - it should be number one! Tackling this would help to solve many of the other problems in the world. Is political correctness the reason it is not on the list?
Jackie Rubin, Great Missenden, England
Terrorism isn't really a priority, stopping the war and world hunger are good starts. Think people.
Paul, london,
I believe what the world fails to see is that the calamities of our day were foretold over 2000 years ago by Jesus Christ. I know that man believes if he throws enough money at some-thing it will be taken care of. what men worldwide need to do is recognize their need for a Savior, not more money!!!
Ken, Valley City, ND., United States
Overpopulaion is a MYTH!! If people would stop being greedy and selfish, there would be enough land and food for a growing population. Maybe simple vegetarian food instead of meat and sugary cakes, but enough for all nonetheless. Most lack is caused by politics or greed.
Anne Kitchen, Birkenhead,
Daphne The question being asked on this strand is about what is the most important problem facing the earth. I can't see where Obama comes into this except no one knows what his policies are and the USA and China chuck out the most CO2. A lot of countries do have population policies .Who doesnt?
Gareth, St Albans, UK
#The most important issue confronting the world today is overpopulation, particularly in the 3rd world and this does not seem to be mentioned either in your newspaper article or on this web page. I would divide the money between reducing the population and climate change, then deal with the rest.
kay callow, Salisbury, Wilts
Galilao Galiali was a scientific giant got into great trouble denying the orthodox belief of the day.
Where is the scientific giant to challenge the orthodox belief regarding Global Warming today?
Brian Organ , hereford, herefordshire
Totally agree with Gareth, St. Albans, UK. Planet Earth has 1 problem only: overpopulation. Solve that and the others vanish, especially diminishing biological diversity.
gerry, exeter, england.
The only way you'll sort out most problems in this world is to make leaders accountable. Problems like Zimbabwe, Somalia, Burma/Myanmar, North Korea only occur because their leaders are literally allowed to get away with murder. States that don't adhere to a basic standard should be isolated.
David Ashton, Bathurst NSW, Australia
You have to understand what OBAMA stands for, this guy is not like the other leaders who lied to twist a story, he is not running because he has nothing else to do. This guy wants to make a difference to the world, poverty, disease, Education, lead by example, set the standard for the future, change
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
I have been called a lot of things but (NAIVE) never I am a honest person, I try to live an ordinary life, I do not rob and steal and tell lies. I like people who have my type of standards in life, I respect others, I treat people like I would like to be treated. I am 50 years old well travelled.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
Oh Daphne Kenward, you must be so young and naive. You would know otherwise that most politicians tell lies to get elected. Historically, the older wise men/women are the best leaders, not someone who is just a good speaker. Look at Tony Blair's shocking record.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
None of the above. Overpopulation is the Mother of them all.
Gareth, St Albans, UK
I have been keen on OBAMA to be elected in November because he would make a good leader and he understands the issues of this age, he is young enough to be intouch with reality of our era, and raise the issues concerning the people of the world, he speaks about health and it is an important issue.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK