Scotland's chances of hitting its target of generating 50% power from renewable sources by 2020 is to be scrutinised in an independent study by an international energy specialist.

The Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI) has commissioned consultants Wood Mackenzie to look at future electricity generation in Scotland.

SCDI said it was doing so in response to widespread concerns over the economic impact of rising energy prices and uncertainty over Scotland’s future energy mix.

The SNP-led Scottish government set the ambitious 50% target last year, up from the previous administration’s figure of 40%, and set an interim target of 31% by 2011.

But it is opposed to building any new nuclear power stations and plans to block any UK government proposals for new nuclear stations in Scotland using planning legislation.

With the Cockenzie coal-fired power station and Hunterston nuclear generator projected to close in the next 10 years, Scotland could go from a significant exporter to an importer of electricity, with implications for the security of supply, jobs and economic growth. Both the UK and Scottish governments have set stretching renewable energy targets.

SCDI’s research will look at future supply of and demand for electricity, and the likelihood of Scotland hitting its target. It is expected Wood Mackenzie will report in September.

Dr Lesley Sawers, SCDI’s chief executive, said: “Rising energy prices are impacting on every sector of the Scottish economy, and there is considerable concern about the implications of the Scottish government’s refusal to allow any new nuclear generation. With planned power station closures this could mean an energy gap.

“Despite important announcements on new wind and biomass capacity in recent weeks, it is still not clear if Scotland will meet its target for 50% electricity consumed coming from renewable sources by 2020 and if we do hit the target, we need to know what this will mean in terms of costs.

“The growth of renewables brings huge opportunities for Scotland, but there are massive barriers that need to be overcome, such as the speed of the consents process and connections to the Grid, and skills shortages. Equally, there are questions that need answered about the cost and reliability of wind power and the likely contribution from wave and tidal power before 2020.”

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