Jonathan Leake
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The Arctic icecap is now shrinking at record rates in the winter as well as summer, adding to evidence of disastrous melting near the North Pole, according to research by British scientists.
They have found that the widely reported summer shrinkage, which this year resulted in the opening of the Northwest Passage, is continuing in the winter months with the thickness of sea ice decreasing by a record 19% last winter.
Usually the Arctic icecap recedes in summer and then grows back in winter. These findings suggest the period in which the ice renews itself has become much shorter.
Dr Katharine Giles, who led the study and is based at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London (UCL), said the thickness of Arctic sea ice had shown a slow downward trend during the previous five winters but then accelerated.
She said: “After the summer 2007 record melting, the thickness of the winter ice also nose-dived. What is concerning is that sea ice is not just receding but it is also thinning.”
The cause of the thinning is, however, potentially even more alarming. Giles found that the winter air temperatures in 2007 were cold enough that they could not have been the cause.
This suggests some other, longer-term change, such as a rise in water temperature or a change in ocean circulation that has brought warmer water under the ice.
If confirmed, this could mean that the Arctic is likely to melt much faster than had been thought. Some researchers say that the summer icecap could vanish within a decade.
The research, reported in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that last winter the average thickness of sea ice over the whole Arctic was 26cm (10%) less than the average thickness of the previous five winters.
However, sea ice in the western Arctic lost about 49cm of thickness. This region saw the Northwest Passage become ice-free and open to shipping for the first time in 30 years during the summer of 2007.
The UCL researchers used satellites to measure sea-ice thickness from 2002 to 2008. Winter sea ice in the Arctic is about 8ft thick on average.
The team is the first to measure ice thickness throughout the winter, from October to March, over more than half of the Arctic, using the European Space Agency’s Envisat satellite.
Giles’s findings confirm the more detailed work of Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University, who has undertaken six voyages under the icecap in Royal Navy nuclear submarines since 1976 and has gathered data from six more voyages.
The vessels use an upward-looking echo-sounder to measure the thickness of sea ice above the vessel. The data gathered can then be compared with previous years to find changes in thickness.
Wadhams published his first paper in 1990, showing that the Arctic ice had grown 15% thinner between 1976 and 1987.
In March 2007 he went under the Arctic again in HMS Tireless and found that the winter ice had been thinning even more quickly; it was now 50% of the 1976 thickness.
“This enormous ice retreat in the last two summers is the culmination of a thinning process that has been going on for decades, and now the ice is just collapsing,” Wadhams said.
The scale of the ice loss has also been shown by other satellite-based observations that are used to measure the area of the Arctic icecap as it grows and shrinks with the seasons.
In winter it normally reaches about 5.8m square miles before receding to about 2.7m square miles in summer.
In 2007, however, the sun shone for many more days than normal, raising water temperatures to 4.3C above the average. By September the Arctic icecap had lost an extra 1.1m square miles, equivalent to more than 12 times the area of Britain.
That reduced the area of summer ice to 1.6m square miles, 43% smaller than it was in 1979, when satellite observations began.
At the heart of the melting in the Arctic is a simple piece of science. Ice is white, so most of the sunlight hitting it is reflected back into space. When it melts, however, it leaves open ocean, which, being darker, absorbs light and so gets warmer. This helps to melt more ice. It also makes it harder for ice to form again in winter. The process accelerates until there is no more ice to melt.
Wadhams said: “This is one of the most serious problems the world has ever faced.”
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Wadhams submarine data was soundly de-bunked by other researchers but his claims are the one's repeated. The sea ice was not gone, or thinner, it had moved to other parts of the Arctic. Clear water at the Pole is not unusual and the North West Passage was traversed by Amundsen in 1906.
harbinger, Cardiff, UK
They say the Arctic helps cool the planet but all we ever hear about is the ice.What about the water underneath it? 3 meters of ice vs. hundreds of meters of sea water. Thin ice will see the water underneath it cool much faster than water under multi-year ice.
kent Blaker, rock creek , Canada
Hillary:
"Just when does the sea level actually begin to rise?"
You do know that the arctic floats in water, right? Doesn't add to the sea level. But it's an indicator (and an important sun reflector).
It's Greenland and West Antarctic that will cause the major sea level rise.
Ingrid, Nora,
Oct 28, 2008 in Vostok, Antartica the temperature is -72 degrees F (by the way it is springtime there) and in Umiat, Alaska it is 12 degrees F(on the Arctic coast) (by the way it is Fall there) if this is global warming you're crazy.........a polar bear was shot 250miles inland !! they r jus fine
orsone, lacey, USA
I have read, and there are is ever growing number of experts in the study of global warming saying there is no such thing today. Nothing that differs from the cyclic patterns studied and recorded over millions of years.
Fred , Vail,
By taking the time look at the lack of evidence to support global warming it once again makes this story hog wash.
Fred , Vail,
This type of propaganda is why the NY Times is losing readers and going under. I live up here and work in the arctic.
Almost every story about environmental damage and wildlife decline that I read in the liberal media is untrue. Moose and bear still roam our city. Hey NY, how many still roam yours?
M Denton, Anchorage,
We've been hearing about rising sea lavels for ages now. Odd then that when I look at photos of UK coastal towns from deacdes ago, and compare recent ones of exactly the same place, there's no discernible difference in sea level then and now. Just when does the sea level actually begin to rise?
Hillary Shaw, Newport, Shropshire
The US mainland temperature is currently falling to record levels. Scientists also said the bumble bee cannot fly. We should ignore this so called expert opinion just like the bumble bee.
Roger, Epping,
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html
The area of arctic sea ice is increasing this year more rapidly than normal, indeed it may be back to the 1979-2000 average shortly after the end of this month and greater thereafter. Surely in the long term increased are will lead to increased volume.
Paul Dover, Nottingham,
Arctic ice is melting even in winter.
The temperature is -21 C in Alert, Nunavut today. (3w.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-22_metric_e.html)
Doublethink is the act of simultaneously accepting as correct two mutually contradictory beliefs.
1984 was meant to be a warning, not a manual.
Ken, -, Canada
funny too, because a well-circulated report last spring revealed the oceans have been cooling for the last 3 years. Seems like the odd one out is this study.
greg, Toronto, Canada
No wonder we are all being flushed down the toilet of history!
With 'scientists' like this and 'economists' like Darling we may as well just give up!
Stephanie King, larnaca, Cyprus
Remember why Greenland is named Greenland. It is because it was once green. England at one time had vineyards all over. It was once warmer. Also they have found proof of palm trees in the far north. Everything is cyclical and has been for millions of years. We can not control mother nature.
Lyndie, Winnipeg,
According to NASA, it's the wind.
But what does science have to do with anything?
Stan, Saskatoon, Canada
Well Hello. Dr W.A. Hill Here.
Does no one else understand the reason for Gobal Warming.
Read what you have just wrote! Arctic Melting, YES, But from within. 30 to 60 Million years ago the Earth was exploding, Nature will always survive, so the volcanoes eruptid covering the Earth with ash, P.S
Dr W.A.Hill, Norton Lindsey, Warwicshire
Stewart Last year it was at a recorded history low. In anycase climate is 50 years not last year or ten years ago. USA folk
how many violent storms and floods will it take for you to notice
anything? Living in the midwest you will be the last to drown but sea level http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080211172517.htm
Pat, Bristol, UK
Right. So what keeps the Oil cool ? Water. Have you worked it out? 2 thirds of this planet is water keeping the oil cool.We have been removing the Coal /The Oil from our Earth for at least 100 years. The suface is warming up because we are removing the product that is keeping it at a stable Heat
W.Hill, Norton Lindsey, Warwickshire
Aren't the elites under water yet? It would be nice if they would learn to live in the REAL world! Look at the rings of an old tree some are wide, some are narrow, some years are good, some are bad. Nature seeks a balance is what I was taught in Middle School.
Jim , Weaverville, usa
Arctic Ice extent is currently around 30% HIGHER than this time last year. Still, let's not report this little inconvenient truth, eh?
Stewart, Leeds,
But more recently
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/
Tom Miller-Jones, Aldeburgh, England
NOT TRUE!
Check out the sattelite images. Compare Oct 25/2007 with Oct 2 2007. Note the huge increase in ice.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=09&fy=2008&sm=08&sd=09&sy=1988
You can compare the ice surface area and its thickness for any two days back to 1979.
Rich, Dealaware, Ont, Canada
But you have failed to mentioned that this Autumn the Artcic is freezing and the ice area is growing faster than the last few years.
So a change in sea conditions and ocean currents together with more sun light is what did it. Brave reporting in these "correct" times. Well done.
R Young, Bedford, UK
People run up huge debts without any realistic ability to pay them back and a naive view that everything will just keep going, it is hardly suprising that the concept of cutting back now to protect the planet is way beyond the grasp of most people.
good luck humanity - see you on the other side.
James Colwill, Norwich, UK