Graphic: refugees to brighten the countryside

The red admirals (Vanessa atalanta) that have taken up residence in Britain as a result of climate change are just the vanguard of an army of butterflies expected to invade, a study has shown.

More than 60 species of butterfly have moved northwards or farther up mountains to escape the effects of climate change in Europe, and many are heading towards Britain.

The movements are a foretaste of the widespread migrations that they will have to make over the next century to stand a chance of surviving global warming, researchers have found. Many will head towards Britain to find sanctuary from the increasingly intolerable temperatures in Central and Southern Europe.

Butterflies expected to bring a new splash of colour to Britain include longtailed blues (Lampides boeticus), pale clouded yellows (Colias hyale), Queen of Spain fritillaries (Issoria lathonia), European swallowtails (Papilio machaon) and Bath whites (Pontia daplidice).

For other species, distribution patterns will change. Small tortoise-shells (Aglais urticae) are common across Europe, but by 2080 Britain could be one of their last strongholds.

Similarly, the comma (Polygonia c-album) is advancing about six miles northwards every year in Britain. It has recently bred as far north as Edinburgh and by 2080 it is expected to be established across Britain.

Red admirals and clouded yellows (Colias croceus), which until recently migrated to Britain each year, now live in the country all year round and will increasingly be found farther north. Swallowtails are another species that will become more widespread. Today they are found only in the Norfolk Broads but an influx from Europe in the coming years should make them common.

Global warming is also likely to cause the loss of several species, including small pearl-bordered fritillaries (Bolorie selene), large heaths (Coenonympha tullia), mountain ringlets (Erebia epiphron) and the northern brown argus (Aricia artaxerxes).

The effects are expected to be even more severe in southern regions of Europe where dozens of species could be driven into extinction.

In the most pessimistic forecasts – with little or nothing being done to stem greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures rising by 4.1C (7.4F) – almost a quarter (24 per cent) of European species will be driven out of at least 95 per cent of their territory by 2080. A further 70 per cent would lose at least half of their territory.

Species such as the Spanish festoon (Zerynthia rumina), the apollo(Parnassius apollo), Freyer’s purple emperor (Apatura metis) and the Lapland fritillary (Euphydryas iduna) are expected to suffer such severe loss of living space that they will die out.

Up to 70 species are expected to be reduced to such low levels that they have little chance of surviving much after 2080. Of the 450 species of European butterfly, 293 were analysed.

The forecasts, from theClimatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies,are based on models of the possible temperature rises by 2080, combined with knowledge of each species’ range, habitats and lifestyle. Josef Settele, of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Germany, the chief author of the atlas, said: “Most species will have to shift their distribution radically to keep pace with the changes. The way butterflies change will indicate the possible response of many other insects.”

Martin Warren, of Butterfly Conservation, said: “Under this scenario we would face a lot of extinctions. If they lose 95 per cent of their territory they aren’t really going to survive in tiny areas for long. They’ve had it.”

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