Graphic: aviation CO2 emissions

A new runway at Heathrow would result in every other British airport having to abandon expansion plans to meet the Government’s climate change target, a study has suggested.

The increase in carbon dioxide emissions from an enlarged Heathrow would be so great that other airports might be forced to cut thousands of flights a year to avoid a breach of the target. That could mean scrapping new runways at Stansted and in Scotland.

More than 20 Labour MPs are expected to rebel against the Government today by voting for a Conservative motion condemning Heathrow expansion. The result will not be binding on the Government but if it is close it would be embarrassing for ministers because it would show how divided the Commons is on the issue.

Last night Andy Slaughter resigned from his Government position as Parliamentary Private Secretary to Lord Malloch-Brown over his opposition to the expansion of Heathrow. Mr Slaughter, MP for Ealing, Acton and Shepherd’s Bush, has been a prominent opponent of the £9 billion third runway and sixth terminal runway.

Opposition is likely to increase when MPs with constituencies far from Heathrow’s flight paths realise that the expansion could come at the expense of their own airports.

A study by the Campaign for Better Transport (CBT) has concluded that proposed runways at Stansted and Edinburgh or Glasgow would have to go because a Heathrow with three runways would use two thirds of British aviation’s carbon ration by 2050. Another 22 airports — including Birmingham, Bristol, Doncaster, East Midlands, Exeter, Leeds-

Bradford, Liverpool and Manchester — would have to abandon plans for new terminals or to extend runways.

Birmingham International airport, which is seeking permission to lengthen its runway by 400 metres to allow passenger numbers to treble to 28 million, said that it would be devastating for the local economy if its expansion was blocked to favour Heathrow.

John Grogan, Labour MP for Selby, whose motion condemning the third runway was signed by 56 other Labour MPs, said: “The biggest losers will be the regional airports, whose hopes of developing more routes will have to be shelved.”

Two weeks ago Geoff Hoon, the Transport Secretary, persuaded Cabinet sceptics including Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn to support Heathrow expansion by hastily drawing up the Government’s first target to limit aviation CO2. He said that emissions from British aviation would have to be reduced to below 2005 levels — which were 37.5 million tonnes — by 2050.

However, on the same day the Department for Transport quietly published its forecasts for the growth of aviation carbon dioxide. It predicted that, even assuming steady improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency, emissions would rise to 59.9 million tonnes in 2050. The forecast assumes that annual passenger numbers more than double from 228 million in 2005 to 525 million by 2050.

The DfT also forecasts that the expansion of Heathrow will result in its CO2 emissions increasing from 17.1 million tonnes in 2005 to 23.6 million tonnes in 2030.

The CBT found that even if Heathrow stopped growing in 2030 and its emissions stabilised, all other airports in Britain would have to cut their combined emissions by a third by 2050 to comply with the Government’s target.

Paul Kehoe, the chief executive of Birmingham International airport, said: “Regional airports will be up in arms if Heathrow is allowed to expand while they are frozen. Birmingham is Britain’s second city and it needs direct global connections, not an artificial constraint.”

Tim Jeans, the managing director of Monarch, Britain’s fourth-biggest airline, said that it would be absurd to block growth at airports in the countryside where no urban areas were flown over. “There would be much less blight from noise and congestion if Gatwick, Stansted or even Luton were expanded instead,” he said.

A DfT spokesman said that if the industry’s predictions for the introduction of greener technology were correct, passenger numbers could more than double by 2050 without increasing emissions above 2005 levels. Mr Hoon told the Commons that the target could be met by introducing biofuels and “blended wing” airliners that look like the B2 Stealth bomber.

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