SUBTROPICAL crops such as dates, figs and rice could become staples of British agriculture within 20 years, according to government forecasts.

The assessment, produced by officials at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), outlines future possibilities for British food production based on recent climate data.

The forecasts highlight some of the unexpected benefits of a warmer climate. It means the British diet will in future be able to include produce currently imported from as far away as China and the Philippines, without incurring massive food miles.

However, some existing crops such as potatoes will struggle, as temperatures are predicted to rise by about 2C within 20 years.

This will mean that summers such as the 2003 heat wave will become commonplace as southern England develops a more Mediterranean climate.

The assessment suggests that the balmiest parts of the south coast will provide an attractive climate for olive trees, apricots and garlic to be cultivated.

Dates – a staple of the Middle East – will be able to establish a foothold in the warmest parts of Devon and Cornwall, while farmers could begin to grow tropical pulses including chickpeas – used to make hummus, the Arab dish – throughout southern England. They should also be able to grow figs, aubergines, peppers and chillies on a commercial scale.

The warmer climate means conditions might be suitable to grow rice in Britain. At present the crop is exported from the paddy fields of Thailand, China and the Philippines, as well as southern Spain, but it could theoretically become a lucrative option for British farmers. However, its production would put pressure on stretched water supplies.

Lavender – associated particularly with the Provence area of France but already grown in East Anglia and southern England – will increasingly be turning green fields purple by 2030, as farmers take advantage of longer, drier summers.

French champagne houses have already shown an interest in growing wine in the South Downs. By 2030 Defra hopes English vineyards will be able to easily cultivate such grapes as pinot noir, used to make champagne, and tempranillo, used to make rioja.

The predictions form the backdrop to a Defra study due to be published in August looking at how Britain’s food will be produced in 2030.

Hilary Benn, the environment secretary, said that while Defra was working to tackle climate change, inevitable temperature rises would present new possibilities.

“Farmers won’t abandon old crops, but at the same time UK agriculture can seize the opportunity to grow new crops. I want British farming to produce as much as possible,” he said.

The warmer climate may also attract such pests as wheat rust, a fungus which causes crops to disintegrate, and the Colorado beetle, which attacks potatoes.

An important focus of research is to find ways to adapt existing crops to a drier climate. By 2050 the Environment Agency expects the supply of water to drop by about 15%, with the country’s rivers shrinking by 80% during the summer months. Defra will spend £22.8m next year on research into increasing yields and reducing water consumption in crops.

This week a report by the Commons environment, food and rural affairs committee will warn that climate change could see Britain suffering food shortages and soaring prices by 2050 unless it raises domestic food production.

Benn said the food industry also had to play its part in resisting climate change.

“Agriculture and food industries are together responsible for around 18% of emissions,” he said. “ That has to be reduced.”

Times recommends

• Energy-saving ideas from switched-on professor
• Rooks are as clever with tools as chimpanzees
• Burping of the lambs blows roast off menu