A clear majority of the public wants a general election to be called soon after Tony Blair stands down as Prime Minister this year, to allow his successor to get the country’s endorsement, according to a poll for The Times.

The Populus poll, the first to be published this year, underlines the risks for Gordon Brown, the virtually certain next Prime Minister, since the Tories have returned to a commanding position, and lead. They are now on 39 per cent, up five points on an unusually low figure early last month.

This is the highest Tory rating in a Populus poll and compares with the party’s average of 37 to 38 per cent in all polls since May.

Most of the Tory gain has been at the expense of other parties, although Labour has slipped one point to 32 per cent, its average since May. The Liberal Democrats are down one point at 18 per cent.

Satisfaction with the Government is at a new low of 15 per cent, compared with 25 per cent two years ago.

These figures explain both why David Cameron has called for an early general election once Mr Brown takes over and why this is unlikely to happen. There may be a Brown honeymoon, boosting Labour in the polls, but he will want to be sure that this is firmly based before risking an election.

The poll, undertaken over the weekend, shows that 56 per cent of all voters, inclduing 76 per cent of Tory supporters, want an election soon after Mr Blair’s successor takes over. This could mean later this year or next year. By contrast, fewer than two fifths (38 per cent) believe that the new prime minister should continue until 2009 or 2010 before holding a general election. Only Labour voters, by 58 to 40 per cent, favour a later election.

A small chink of light for Mr Brown is that, for the first time, the Tory lead narrows rather than increases when his name is mentioned. In the past, when leaders’ names were linked to their parties in asking about votes at the next election, the Tories under Mr Cameron have done better than under the normal question about voting intentions. Now, the figure for the Tories is unchanged at 39 per cent and Labour under Mr Brown is at 34 per cent, against 32 per cent otherwise.

There is no comfort for John Reid, who has not yet formally ruled himself out of standing. Under him, Labour would be on 27 per cent at the next election, against 44 per cent for the Tories, compared with a 32 to 40-point gap in September. So Mr Brown would now do seven points better than Dr Reid.

Even though 72 per cent of voters are disappointed in the Labour Government, 47 per cent would still prefer Labour to the Tories, with just 40 per cent favouring the Tories. More than half of Lib Dem voters (56 per cent) would prefer a Labour to a Conservative government.

Mr Cameron’s rating as leader remains the highest of the three heads of the main parties, at 5.11 (on a 0 to 10 scale), but it is slightly down on last September (5.20).

At 4.69, Mr Blair’s rating is slightly up on four months ago (4.63), although well below his pre-2006 levels.

Mr Blair’s average rating among Labour voters has jumped from 6.71 to 7.03, and remains, by a clear margin, the best of any of the three leaders among their own party supporters.

Sir Menzies Campbell’s rating, on 4.65, is slightly up on last summer and autumn, but is still lower than Charles Kennedy’s throughout his leadership.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,507 adults aged over 18 by telephone between January 5 and 7. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

For more details, see www.populuslimited.com

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