Gordon Brown may be a more elusive target than the Conservatives imagine. The latest Populus poll for The Times contradicts many of the assumptions that Tory MPs, activists and bloggers have about how to attack the prime minister in waiting.

You often hear claims that English voters will not accept a prime minister who represents a Scottish constituency. Wrong. Only 26 per cent of all voters, and 32 per cent of Tories, believe that it would be wrong to have a Scottish MP in Downing Street putting forward “policies that would be implemented in England but not in Scotland”.

By contrast, 66 per cent think it “does not matter whether the prime minister represents a Scottish seat since he is PM of the whole UK”. This includes almost as many Tories (64 per cent).

Equally common is the assumption that voters will find Mr Brown unattractive. The verdict here is mixed. He certainly lacks a Blair, Clinton or Cameron appeal. A mere fifth of all voters, and only a little over a third of Labour supporters, think that Mr Brown is charismatic and nearly three quarters of the public think he is not. Nearly half (46 per cent) say that he is dour, including two fifths of Labour voters. Small majorities do not regard him as either arrogant (51 to 44 per cent) or a control freak (47 to 44 per cent).

A big majority, however, view him as strong (an average of 69 per cent and even 62 per cent of Tories), and more than half (53 per cent) as statesmanlike. As a Populus poll in October showed, Mr Brown has the edge over David Cameron in the “strong leader” stakes, sticking to what he believes and so on. The Tory leader is, however, ahead on the softer qualities of charisma, caring about ordinary people, likeability etc.

The latest poll suggests that the Cameron premium may have disappeared. In all polls between November 2005 and last month, the Tory lead was larger when Mr Brown and Mr Cameron were mentioned.

Now, when people are asked about their vote at the next general election, the Tory lead narrows by two points compared with the normal voting intentions question. So the Tories under Mr Cameron are put on 35 per cent, against 34 per cent for Labour under Mr Brown.

More generally, there are bound to be rumblings among Tories about why their party is not doing better at a time when Mr Blair and the Government are in such trouble. Even if some of the Tories’ 3-point fall to 36 per cent since early last month is put down to month-to-month fluctuations, this is still at the lower end of their recent range. Meanwhile, Labour support remains firm, at 33 per cent, up one point since last month.

One reason could be that the public generally is less worked up about all the cash-for-honours stories than the media and political worlds. More than half the public (56 per cent) say that the allegations have significantly reduced their trust in the Government, but nearly three quarters of voters believe that “these kinds of things have always gone on, and the Labour Government is no worse in this regard than past Conservative governments”.

A similar proportion, however, believes that Mr Brown “must have known”. So it may be hard to achieve a clean break when Mr Brown eventually takes over as prime minister.

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