Swingeing cuts in elderly care and library and sports services will be made this year as councils struggle to keep tax levels down.

A Times survey of more than 200 authorities shows that the average proposed council tax increase is about 3.75 per cent so far but this is likely to go up to nearer 3.9 per cent as elements for the police and parishes are added.

A few councils have risked being capped by imposing an increase of 5 per cent, while more than 20 have tried to sneak in with 4.99 or 4.98 per cent.

Ministers have insisted again that the average increase should come in below 5 per cent.

But so far this year they have not intervened directly to keep council rises down and are confident that the threat of capping has finally made town halls fall into line.

In 2005 eight councils were capped and last year two councils, Medway and York City, were given a “notional” budget for 2007-08 that has forced them to cut services this time.

Parties that seized control in last year’s elections were among the first to try to go one better and freeze or even cut council tax this year. The new Tory administration at Hammersmith and Fulham has proposed cutting tax by 3 per cent by putting a vast chunk of services out to private contractors.

Crewe and Nantwich, which is under no overall control, is also proposing to cut council tax by 1 per cent, and several councils plan a tax freeze, including Camden, Hackney, Kensington & Chelsea and South Oxfordshire.

The Tories’ overall success in last year’s local elections also seems to be contributing to the drive to lower taxes. Of the 25 authorities that have proposed rises of less than 2 per cent, 11 are Tory, 4 Labour, 7 no overall control, 2 Liberal Democrat and 1 independent. However, three out of four of the councils proposing a 5 per cent increase are Tory.

Districts, most of which are holding elections this year and had the largest grants last year, have the lowest average rise at 3.5 per cent, followed by metropolitan districts at 3.7 per cent, unitaries at 4 per cent, and counties at 4.5 per cent.

The main pressures facing most town halls are the escalating costs of caring for the elderly and demands to increase recycling to meet EU landfill directives. In addition, councils have to meet the extra costs of government directives such as the licensing of pubs and restaurants.

But the current pay round and legal appeals over equal pay for men and women are expected to lead to increasing costs over the next few months.

Tim Stoddard, leader of Cumbria County Council, which has proposed a 4.99 per cent increase, said that his council had set £15 million aside to settle claims. The council has had to close libraries early, increase the price of meals on wheels and introduce a new £10 charge for day care.

Many councils have already made big cuts in social services by changing the eligibility criteria for home care. This means that tens of thousands fewer elderly or disabled people are entitled to free care at home. Several councils have also admitted that they are cutting library and sports services with “leisure services” the most vulnerable.

Keith Walters, Tory leader of Cambridgeshire, which has proposed a 5 per cent increase, said: “We have had to protect children’s services and adult social care.

“But we have had to make cuts in respite care, book funds, and mobile libraries. Landfill taxes are escalating every year which has meant other services have to give.”

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