Gordon Brown needs a serious challenge. If he is seen as having had to fight for the leadership, his victory could establish his authority for his battle with David Cameron. But a coronation, or a lopsided contest, would reinforce the impression of half-hearted inevitability about his succession, already a widespread view among Labour MPs.

Such a challenge would not be provided by a left-wing opponent such as John McDonnell or Michael Meacher. Neither is a remotely credible candidate. But there is no one in the mainstream. David Miliband, the fantasy candidate of the Blairites, has not said absolutely no, but he has certainly not said yes, or even perhaps. At present, no other senior antiBrown candidate looks likely to get the public support of the 45 Labour MPs needed for a nomination. That applies to both Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn. This could, of course, change. The key will be the mood among MPs after the local elections on May 3 when Tony Blair creates a vacancy.

The further dilemma for Brownites and Blairites is that if a challenger were squashed by Mr Brown, as is probable, then the Tories would be able to proclaim the crushing of new Labour. That outcome is in the interests of neither group: hence, the frustration of many Blairites who are unenthusiastic about, but resigned to, Mr Brown’s succession.

That is why the latest initiative by Mr Clarke and Mr Milburn, calling for “an open participatory debate”, is, paradoxically, both an admission of failure and should be taken on its own terms: unusual and unnatural though that will be for many Labour MPs. If there is no credible alternative candidate to Mr Brown, then there needs to be a proxy contest, in which he has to justify himself and set out his future strategy.

Expert View

Brown must out himself as the person his friends describe him as being

India Knight

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BACKGROUND

• The Clarke and Milburn email in full

• Ex-Labour ministers in new 'challenge' to Brown

• Brown needs a proper fight, not a grudging handover

Related Internet Links

• Comment Central: What are Clarke and Milburn really up to?

The instinct of the Brownites is to keep their heads down, apart from occasional speeches such as Mr Brown’s yesterday, and to focus on preparing for handover day, and all the new ideas they are eager to implement. But this will not do. Mr Brown’s main personal vulnerability is that he is seen as a closed, controlling politician reluctant to discuss options.

Mr Brown needs to debate, rather than merely state, the strategic challengers. Some of these have been set out well in speeches by Mr Milburn and, particularly recently, by Mr Clarke. What is the case for replacing Trident? What should be Britain’s position be in the EU? What role is there for charges and fees if services are to be improved at a time of much slower growth in overall public spending? These options should be openly discussed, not seen by the Brownites as a coded attack on their hero by Blairite “outriders”. By being more open, Mr Brown could both offer personal ressurance about his style as a likely prime minister and explain what he would do: his “narrative on renewal”, as strategists could put it.

If the Brown camp remains closed, there is a real danger of a grudging unenthusiastic handover. The deputy leadership contest provides an awful warning of what can go wrong. Several of the candidates have made fatuous gestures of distancing from the Blair record to win support from Labour traditionalists. If that is the future, no thanks. Mr Brown can, and should, do better.

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