Conventional wisdom that Rudy Giuliani is too socially liberal and combustible to win the next Republican presidential nomination is taking a battering.

A slew of polls show the former Mayor of New York opening a lead of up to 20 per cent over his declared rivals among likely Republican primary voters.

The phenomenon of a thrice-married supporter of abortion, gay rights and gun control creating such enthusiasm in a party dominated by Christian conservatives is a cause of puzzlement, bordering on panic, among Washington’s pundits.

Some insist that it cannot last and that Mr Giuliani’s popularity will evaporate once voters are reminded of the positions he has taken and his tarnished record as an arrogant mayor with dubious connections in New York City.

Others are trying to find a reverse gear for their opinions because no Republican candidate in modern history has been so far ahead at this stage in the contest and then failed to win the nomination.

In Virginia, where Republican activists gathered for their annual dinner to hear him speak at a Marriott Hotel on Monday night, it does not take long to discover his appeal.

Michael Hines, 61, a lawyer from Arlington, said: “He has demonstrated strong leadership on security matters and that is top of my list.”

Although both he and his wife, Patricia, describe themselves as religious conservatives who are in “a different place” to Mr Giuliani on social issues, being “America’s Mayor” on September 11, 2001, trumps everything.

Mary Gail Swenson, 63, could scarcely take her hands off him as she posed for pictures with Mr Giuliani and whispered in his ear. What did she say? “I wanted to thank him for being so strong in the face of fear. When 9/11 happened he made us feel safer.”

Mr Giuliani has since made a fortune as a motivational speaker, commanding fees of up to $100,000 (£51,000) a time. On Monday he told Virginia Republicans, who are smarting from defeat in November’s midterm congressional elections, why they should feel good about themselves and confident for the future.

He swiftly returned to the subject of 9/11, saying the lesson of the day is that “we need to go on the offence against religious extremists”.

Although he supports President Bush’s plan for a surge of troops in Iraq, he is not tied to it in the public imagination in the same way as John McCain, his main rival for the Republican nomination.

Instead, Mr Giuliani is a symbol of 9/11 who allows Republicans to wallow in the cosy nostalgia of America’s sense of righteousness after those attacks. “The reality is not that it is our war, but their war . . . this war is over when they stop planning to kill us.”

He got his loudest applause for comparing the current battle with the Cold War against Communism, saying: “Ronald Reagan foresaw the demise of the Soviet Union when nobody else could see it. I can foresee the demise of terrorism.”

Mr Giuliani also reminded the audience of his record as a tax-cutter and crimebuster in New York. But there was only the faintest hint of the social policies on which so many of those present have profound disagreements with him. “I’ve supported four or five hundred candidates in my time,” said Mr Giuliani “but I’ve not yet found one with whom I can agree completely. In fact, I don’t even agree with myself on everything.”

Indeed, he has tacked a little to the right over recent weeks, saying he would nominate “strict constructionists” for the US Supreme Court who “interpret, not invent, the Constitution”. This is seen as code for opposing the kind of “judicial activism” that brought about the Roe v Wade ruling legalising abortion across America.

He is being careful, however, not to squander the trust he earned on 9/11 by overdoing it. Rivals for the Republican nomination, such as Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, are being accused of “flip-flopping” in their effort to harvest conservative votes.

Audience member Richard Brown said that he consider voting for Mr Giuliani. This might not be remarkable except that he served as a US navy pilot on the same ship as Mr McCain in the Vietnam War and is worried that his former comrade is now trying “to grasp more of the right wing of our party”.

Asked if he was worried about Mr Giuliani’s social positions, he said: “There’s not a candidate with a clean skirt out there. Hell, I’ve been married myself three times.”

Good times, bad times

— The first Republican Mayor of notoriously liberal New York City in 20 years

— Dogged by ethical questions including links to former aide and disgraced NYC Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik

— Achieved a 57 per cent drop in the NYC crime rate Informed his second wife, Donna Hanover, that he was filing for divorce at a press conference. His first marriage of 14 years was annulled because he had married his second cousin

— Strong leadership in aftermath of 9/11, working around the clock to coordinate rescue efforts earned him the title of “America’s Mayor”

— Withdrew from the 2000 Senate race against Hillary Clinton because of prostate cancer, now in remission

Source: Times archives

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