"Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn deny that they are trying to cause trouble for Gordon Brown - but that is certainly not how it is perceived in the Brown camp because, by doing this, they have effectively cast some doubt that he is the right man for the job.

"Clearly, they are worried that Brown has already been here for 10 years and - if he comes in - will just appear to the public as more of the same. After all, Brown does not look new. He is identified as being part of Tony Blair's 10 years, and indeed was one of the architects of it. What Clarke and Milburn are looking for is something or someone to change that - either new discussion or momentum being added to the Labour Party under Brown, or a mainstream candidate to challenge him to provide that discussion and debate.

"Milburn and Clarke remain unlikely to challenge Brown themselves at this stage. Charles Clarke told me yesterday he was very unlikely to stand, and I don't believe Alan Milburn thinks he has enough support to do so. However, what I think they would admit in private is that they are looking for a credible Blairite candidate to come forward, probably David Miliband.

"My own view is that Miliband is the only Blairite politician who could get anywhere near the number of votes to enable him to stand, and he would take a handful of junior ministers along with him. But whenever anyone asks him whether he'll stand at the moment, he always says he will not. Clearly, at present, he has calculated that his chances of actually seriously winning any campaign would be very remote, so all it would serve to do is divide the party and damage his credibility at the same time.

"So, at this stage - in answer to the question of whether we are any nearer to there being a serious challenge to Gordon Brown as a result of today's events - I do not think we are. There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding this launch. Only 16 MPs turned up along with a handful of researchers. A lot of those who did come along thought that they were turning up to an internal policy discussion, but found that there were twice as many media as MPs. In addition, a lot of the MPs who did come along were clearly Brownites who just wanted to see what was going on.

"Had there been a massive turnout this morning, it may have told Brown something. But the derisory turnout will allow his people to turn around and say that this is nothing to worry about."

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