Lord Kinnock stoked a looming Labour rebellion on Britain’s strategic nuclear deterrent last night by becoming the most prominent party figure to oppose replacing Trident.

Lord Kinnock said the case for replacing Trident had not been made either on grounds of strategic threat or cost, and said he was against going ahead with a new deterrent system. Speaking at a meeting in Westminster before tomorrow’s crucial Commons vote, he predicted a big Labour rebellion, saying the Government should “expect to get hit”.

His intervention has huge symbolic significance since one of his most important achievements as Labour leader was to abandon the unilateralist policy on which the party fought the 1983 and 1987 general elections, which was widely blamed for contributing to the scale of its successive defeats. He regarded Labour’s adoption of a multilateralist position as crucial to making the party electable once again.

Tony Blair is bracing himself for his biggest Commons rebellion since the Iraq war. More than a hundred Labour MPs are threatening to vote against the Government’s decision to replace the fleet of Vanguard nuclear submarines and extend the life of their Trident missiles.

Gordon Brown, who backed replacing Trident even before the decision was formally taken, has been involved in concerted attempts to persuade his own supporters not to join the revolt.

He held a lengthy discussion over the weekend with Nigel Griffiths, one of his former allies, and there was irritation in the Chancellor’s camp that Mr Griffiths resigned as Deputy Leader of the Commons.

Mr Griffiths, who had been unpaid in his post, the equivalent of a parliamentary undersecretary, held his seat of Edinburgh South with a majority of 405 at the last election, making it one of Labour’s most marginal seats. “I am resigning with a heavy heart but a clear conscience,” he said. He is seeking to make a Commons personal statement.

Mr Brown also tried to dissuade Jim Devine, MP for Livingston, from quitting as a ministerial aide in protest. A Government whip told The Times that “at least 100” Labour MPs were preparing to rebel, including two or three junior ministerial aides, although no further ministers were involved.

Some MPs with practical concerns — such as those about timing and cost — were meeting defence ministers who were seeking to talk them round, although many others had objections in principle and were determined to vote against, the whip said. The ministerial aides were “being handled with great care” to urge them to stay.

Stephen Pound, another parliamentary secretary, has declared his intention to join the rebellion but refused to resign, saying that he should be sacked if necessary.

Even if ministers can reduce the size of the rebellion by persuading MPs to abstain rather than vote against, Mr Blair still risks having to rely on David Cameron’s support to win approval to replace Trident.

The Conservative leader issued his MPs with a three-line whip yesterday, rather than a two-line whip as the Tories would normally use when asking their MPs to vote with the Government.

A handful of Tories will vote against, led by Michael Ancram, the party’s former Defence Secretary, but their number is likely to be in single figures. Commons motions objecting to Mr Blair’s position on Trident have been signed by 13 Tory MPs, but several object to its handling and timing, not the decision itself.

Rebel hordes

-Iraq war (2003): 139 (also rebellions of 121 and 84)

-Top-up fees/Higher Education Bill (2004): 72

-Trust schools/Education and Inspections (2006): 69

-Disability benefits/Welfare Reform and Pensions (1999): 67

-Foundation hospitals/Health and Social Care (2003): 65

-Biggest revolt against Labour was on defence in 1977 when 79 Labour MPs backed a move calling for lower arms spending

Source: Philip Cowley, Nottingham University

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