Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Gordon Brown’s carrot may amount to a shrewder reading of public opinion than David Cameron’s stick. Voters are now green in principle, but only ambiguously so in practice. Most want to save the planet, but are dubious about paying higher taxes.
There is no distinct green vote. Voters cannot be so easily segmented. Most of us have several, often conflicting, identities and interests. Of course, a small minority of voters care so passionately that they back the Green Party, about 4 per cent or so according to recent polls (more, incidentally, than support the UK Independence Party or the British National Party). In general, however, greenery is more a matter of attitude than of partisan affiliation.
Mr Cameron is correct that British voters are now concerned about climate change, and he has skilfully identified with that mood. According to YouGov, 85 per cent of the public think that global warming is taking place and almost as many believe that, unless action is taken, global warming will accelerate.
Voters think of themselves as green. A Populus poll for The Times in November showed that four fifths claim to boil only as much water as needed and to switch off the television by using the off button, and two thirds say they buy only low-energy light bulbs. These claims are way ahead of the reality.
Once you move from rhetoric to detail, however, voters become more sceptical. Despite a bias in favour of appearing green, the public is split 53 to 45 per cent on being willing to pay significantly higher petrol prices, car tax and air fares as part of efforts to cut back carbon emissions.
According to Populus, seven in ten say that introducing new green taxes on petrol and airline tickets would only be acceptable if other taxes were cut.
As Peter Kellner, of YouGov, has argued on The First Post website, people like low-cost proposals and ones that punish other people; they do not see why the British should act, and pay more, unless big polluters around the world also cut emissions; and we do not trust politicians to use the money from raising green taxes to reduce other, direct taxes.
They fear that the overall tax burden would rise: hence the public hostility to the recent rise in air passenger duty.
That is why the Liberal Democrats’ package last September was presented as tax-neutral overall with large rises in direct taxes balanced by cuts in direct taxes.
The Tories have so far been bolder in their commitment to action, notably with their weekend proposals for taxing frequent fliers. The party has promised that the tax burden will not rise, but spokesmen have not yet said which taxes will be cut.
Conservative supporters are, however, more sceptical than those of other parties about measures to tackle climate change. Some senior Tories question the extent of the threat.
Mr Brown has avoided such pitfalls with his plans to extend insulation and to phase out high-energy light bulbs. While Mr Cameron has so far taken the risks, the challenge for the Government is show whether their incentives, and today’s draft Climate Change Bill, are tough and specific enough to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.

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Bill, Brampton. Absolutely correct, always follow the money. Yes, we should clean up our messes, and rich countries do this. Poor countiries cannot because they are poor!! However, one can get carried away. Instance, clean water , is anyone in favour of dirty water.? We do not need water cleaned to trillion parts. Incremental costs will kill you. Green IS the new Religion, and St Al Gore the Green is it's Prophet. Like all Prophets he can perform miracles!! His private jet, and house are all carbon neutral. This ' carbon neutral ' thing is like a sacrement to the Greens. It does not exist, but it sounds good. St Al says he achieves this state of Grace by buying ' credits'. He does this by ' selling" them to himself. In the good old days, these were called indulgences. One economic note. One cannot re-distribute wealth. It was NOT distributed in the first place. A politician may say the contrary, but not an economist. See Gordon Brown.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Texas
The climate is warming up but I believe that this is a natural process and not a result of CO2 emissions. We should, however, try to be kinder to the Earth by being cleaner both in our personal behaviour and in our industrial behaviour. The current Climate Control measures are politically motivated and the British public have fallen into the trap set by all of the major parties. Have we not learned anything about the way Blair manipulates public opinion to suit his own personal aims (His Legacy). The Greens are religious fanatics and we should be very wary of them. I won't vote for any party that penalises air travel. The Conservative party has lost my vote as a result of Cameron's misguided plans to tax travellers even if he does redistribute the proceeds to families with children. Cameron should not make the mistake of carrying out Labour policies of redistribution of wealth using the Conservative vehicle. If he really believes in Labour policies he should join Labour.
Bill, Brampton, GB
As an "ordinary" working man already hammered by tax after tax, this to me is yet another ploy to bleed me dry. The sooner Blair and Brown are gone, the better. Even Cameron couldnt answer why they are all hell-bent on taxing air-flight when shipping is just as bad, if not worse. Couldnt be something to do with more people flying could it? I wonder how long it will be before the public simply say "enough is enough" and we see mass striking or even the us losing the will to work.
Tony Barratt, Rotherham,
The last 25 years british governments have taken very little action concerning the environment compared with european countries. what is causing this sudden u-turn. I wish some of you journalists would find the secundary agenda because I am convinced there is one. Perhaps we should look to the nuclear industry.
The big problem is that all political parties now seem to be advocating the same thing,which makes a joke of democracy. There is nobody with any sense to vote fot anymore,all parties are ready to jeopardise the economy for this white elephant which at best is going to delay the expected temperature rise by 10 years. Keep the economy going and invest in research in the real answer to CO2 reduction,perhaps CO2 storage on a big scale,instead of talking about low energy lightbulbs in Downing street . Is the public really this gullible? How much CO2 does the Irak war produce Tony? Oh of course,you buy carbon offsets.
len west, fife,
Cameroon has managed to make Gordon Brown more apealing to Middle England. Browns' policies on the envirnoment are sensibly targeted and show some consideration for industary while Dave's green policies carry great economic risk. Tourism from the UK provides a huge number of jobs for people in the UK and in closely allied countires, penalising people who wish for more than one trip abroad per year is highly dangerous for the economy of Europe as a whole with potentially very far reaching implications. The Stern Report shows aviation is not a massive contributer to current CO2 immissions but could be in future. Targeting UK aviation now in such a heavy handed way is a very narrow approach to a wide global problem. It offers a lot of pain for potentially little and not guarnteed gain. The policy makes Cameron appear reckless and makes Brown look a much safer pair of hands in wish to trust our future prosperity. Focusing on the home Brown wins both politically and environmentally.
B Simkin, Leicester,
Cynical..outdo each other on the promises?Who supports who in the debate..Tony Jupiter Green Alliance..Margaret Beckett [When in DEFRA] Tomorrows England..who rave about global warming..DEFRA bankrolls them as does a company who boasts 74000 employees and a $3 billion turnover..the UKs largest BUS company?This planet will do as it wishes without the trendies..their last forcast was an Ice Age?1940/1970 s>the sun..the moon and the clouds will do mother natures bidding.If we all stop living tomorrow the oceans and decaying vegetation will produce sufficient greenhouse gas to make us weep.Qne Volcanic eruption produces 5 times the output of mankindwe seem to be living in cloud cuckoo land.THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING!THe Scottish[most of them are] gent is rubbing his hands..so far taxed you to the hilt..now found a better way.The rogue Meteor will arrive before 2050..but "Jock" knows this
david, Badnsley, Yorkshire
Sorry Tony Dummerlow and A Standley, the Channel 4 programme was a complete load of tosh. See George Monbiot's debunking in another newspaper today. The bit I particularly liked was where the programme suggested that scientists in the USA didn't dare say anything against Global Warming for fear of not getting any more money from the (Bush) administration! If you'll believe that there's no hope for you.
Bill Linton, London,
I'd vote for global warming, a warm England would be a bonus all. A lot of money will be spent on dubious unproven science, there seems to be a lot of evidence that the warming is only part caused by mankind.
However what it does do is give the inept overspending politicians something to tax, how does an enviromental tax help the enviroment when it goes into general spending. Maybe it would be better invested in tourist resorts to reap the benifits of warming.
I'd love a warmer drier UK, we'd be better spending money to adapt rather than try to slow the unstopable change, or we could invest in tourist facilities to make use of the improved climate.
Tony Pearson, Aylesford, Kent
10,000 years ago which is not even yesterday in geological time; where I am sitting now there was a lump of ice about one mile high. My stone age ancestors and their political masters did a magnificent job in getting it all to melt so that their grandchildren, great grandchildren and so on could thank them.
Will our grandchildren and great grandchildren thank us for leaving them impoverished with the lights going out, no internet, no BBC
(hmm, thats not such a bad idea) and hospitals unable to care for them when the wind does not blow? Perhaps they will say what were they thinking about? They allowed their government to wreck the economy and relegate us to a grim way of life unseen for centuries.
Robert Persey, Faversham, UK
Yes Tony Dummerlow I agree, this is all a complete waste of time & money, Co2 does not cause climate change, the sun increasing & decreasing the worlds temperature causes a variation in the level of Co2.
One proof of this is that graphs produced from ice cores covering thousands of years show that Co2 levels follow the temperature variations by being about 800 years behind.
In any case humans produce a very small amount of the total Co2 produced; coming after volcanoes, animal flatulence, plants & from the oceans. Interestingly temperatures went up from the 1880s to 1940 then down until 1975 then steadily up. If human produced Co2 was important you would have expected the temperature to have gone up after the Second World War when industry was producing like mad. Yes global warming (change) is happening, as it has happened always in the past & long before industrialisation. We are really not that powerful yet that we can affect to any real extent the temperature of the planet.
A STANDLEY, Doncaster, UK
GW is occuring, the evidence is unequivocal. As to whether it is man-made the evidence is dubious and slanted. This does not mean we should go about our lives as if waste is OK. I practice care with energy consumption. I drive a 1300cc car that does 50mpg - ish. I don't use stanby and I turn on only lights in the room I am using. I use low energy bulbs. I buy class A white goods. I live in a new house with a good standard of insulation. I don't waste heat in the winter. I work from home mostly. I have been doing this for years, not because I believe global warming is caused by man but to save money. Waste is no more than a bad habit and this attitude can be changed.
I would like people to practice energy conservation through tax breaks and conscience not taxes and browbeating by government and eco-zealots.
Taxing people for production of C02 is detrimental to the economy. Tax breaks for energy efficiency is not and is more effective. It doesn't line the pockets of the Treasury though
David Thijm, Stourbridge, UK
The cause of global warming is largely the increased solar radiation reaching ground level because the de-industrialisation of the northern hemisphere. Yes global warming is partly man made but the measures proposed will increase the effect not decrease it. When hindsight which is the best examiner of policies and a very hard marker shows this to be the case we can look forward to any party that is not involved in the green movement rising rapidly. That is a prospect I find quite depressing if Chris Roberts is right about the BNP which does appear to be the case.
Forget carbon emissions as they are looking ever more likely to be the result not the cause. Save energy as it makes sense anyway and start by either banning making all cars able to run at traffic jam speeds on electric power for two or three miles and switch smoothly to petrol or diesel at higher speeds.
Remember air travel is only a few per cent of fuel use and is irrelevant as an environmental measure.
David Cage, Highworth, Wilts
I wonder how much we have spent in the past 10 years on anti-global warming strategies and how much effect they have had. Perhaps it would be sensible to find out if they working before we go into another tax the people spree.
And isn't it strange how population growth is never included in calculations? After all, in 50 years time the population of the world will have DOUBLED, and all the new members of the human race will be wanting their dinners cooked. I suspect that increase in fuel consumption will be more than the savings made by banning 4 x 4s
John H Rowley, BIrmingham,
I am far from convinced about any climate change being within human control. I will not agree with any proposals which might make my life more unpleasent.
Robert Holton, London,
Chris Roberts - you are spot on. It's irrefutable - the more peple the more pollution. So let's take a longterm view on this and stop doling out loads of money for each child. Stump up only for the first child, less for the 2nd and nothing after that. It'll take time but the argument is a great deal clearer than the CO2 one.
hero, Preston,
Global Warming is a natural event.its been happening since time started.Every 100 or so years the sun`s rays increase, warming up anything in its path.
how come people in Britain are so silly as to listen to anything a Politician, says, with regard to the climate.
Lets Raise Tax, on this that and the other, that will solve the problem. How come when ever theres "A Problem" Tax will have to be raised.Wake Up People, you are having the wool pulled over your eyes. Green Taxes??? ha-ha, you jump right into their laps, and they are loving it. Good old Tory Dave, goes to work on his bike, and his suit and Papers follow in a car.Tedious Tone, bangs on about it, and every goverment building has all the lights on all day & night.
Peter, Ware,
I agree with Christian Stängle from Ulm.
It is an unequivocally positive thing that politicians are finally moving the tax burden away from useful things like job creation and innovation, and instead taxing things we don't want like waste and pollution.
About time.
Huw Peach, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
The announcement of higher flying taxes has just cost the conservative leader a voter for good. I disagree strongly with this and shall not now be voting conservative for so long as he remains leader. I suggest he joins another party.
This country has no moral responsibility to do more than it"s fair share and we already do more than our fair share via much greater than average petrol and general motoring taxes.
The airline industry is part of this country"s economy and holidays are part of the our quality of life. I shall be boycotting overtime at work and depriving the inland revenue of PAYE and national insurance to the tune of any new unfair air taxes, by way of retaliation.
Mr P.Gaynor, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
Did anyone see the recent documentary shown on Channel 4, where many leading scientists cast doubt on the idea that man made emissions are causing global warming. Several very good points were made, including : the way Al Gore misunderstands his often used graph, which in fact shows CO2 rising after a rise in temperature not before, the clear effect of sun spot activity which tracks rises in temperature exactly, the fact that medieval Europe was hotter than today, wheras 300 years ago it was cooler, vineyards were common in the UK in roman times, the amount of man made made CO2 is minute compared to that occuring naturally, and the fact that water vapour is a more efficient greenhouse gas than CO2. The most disturbing part of the documentary however, concerned the political forces behind this, from grants being given to scientists who have an obvious vested interest in propogating the theory, to the whole new set of taxes about to hit us just as people wise up to stealth taxes.
tony dummelow, birmingham,
Come on, yes lets have Green Taxes, but lets have the proceeds ring fenced and invested in renewable or cleaner energy sources, otherwise these are just taxes to raise money for general expenditure,not green taxes at all.
Don't try to kid us!
R.TEAR, SOUTHPORT, U.K.
One of the biggest causes of environmental damage is over population. Only the British National Party seeks to stem the flood of people coming here which would at least keep some of the developers at bay in our ever decreasing green spaces.
Chris Roberts, Benfleet, Essex
I'd say people in general want someone _else_ to save the planet.
In the 70\s they wanted everyone else but them to practice pay restraint, and they expected politicians to square the circle and save the day. The politicians, being not very bright, claimed they could do so.
Now, people want everyone else but them to practice restraint in consumption of resources, and expect the politicians to square the circle and save the day. Our politicians appear little brighter now than then.
Learning that politicians alone can't deliver a healthy economy was a big lesson, painful for many. Some in Europe still haven't learnt it. Learning the same lesson about the environment may well be as traumatic. It's a pity that the politicians are yielding to the same temptations as before.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Higher taxes is not true. Taxes are changed on other regions of doing. There are lower taxes on many other things possible. Its a great misunderstanding.
Christian Stängle, Ulm, Germany
Of course we want to save the planet, however the majority of the public do not feel that we should pay swingeing taxes while the rest of the world gets off scott free. Given their past record I would not believe anything that either of the two major parties said on where that money would be spent. I would however be more inclined towards my gut feeling that it wouldn't be spent on improving the enviroment and that within a couple of years they would be back with another round of swingeing tax increases, once again in the name of tackling enviromental issues and climate change.
jeff cox, Conifer Grove, New Zealand