Angus Macleod: Analysis
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For a country that in five weeks could be taking a significant step towards leaving the 300-year Union with the rest of the United Kingdom, Scotland appears remarkably restrained.
The streets are not filled with protesters demanding independence and there is no obvious upsurge of nationalistic sentiment but, as the Populus poll for The Times indicates today, a political earthquake is taking place north of the border. For the first time in almost 50 years, Labour, according to our poll, is about to lose an election in Scotland. Devolution is about to deliver the kind of electoral blow to Labour in Scotland that these five decades of rule from Westminster could not.
While the rest of Britain could flit promiscuously between parties, Scotland was always loyal to Labour. Even when Mrs Thatcher was in her pomp and laying waste to political enemies across the rest of Britain, the Scots remained unimpressed and dutifully returned a majority of Labour MPs.
Labour’s demise in a devolved Scotland cannot be laid wholly at the door of Jack McConnell, the Labour First Minister. True, he has not been the most inspiring of political leaders and has lacked any real presence, but his coalition administration, along with the Liberal Democrats, has wrought some improvement in public services and brought about modest economic growth. The one real political risk Mr McConnell took when he introduced a ban on smoking in public places grabbed the right kind of headlines and has been a success.
The worm eating away at Labour support in Scotland, however, is not Scottish. Rather, as Labour strategists now admit privately, the problem is a prime minister widely perceived as past his sell-by date and irredeemably associated in the minds of voters with an unending debacle in Iraq and the scandal of cash for honours. Add deep Scottish opposition to the renewal of Trident on the Clyde and, as one Labour insider put it: “We are fighting against a tide. The Nats are winning because they’re not Labour.”
Mr Blair’s devolution legacy, it seems, will be a loosening of the ties that bind Scotland to England. Mr Brown’s devolution inheritance will be to have his right to rule in his own Scottish backyard challenged again and again by a nationalist party in power in Scotland.
On the evidence of this poll, it will now take a major gaffe by the nationalists and their leader, Alex Salmond, not to emerge early on May 4 as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament.
Mr Salmond has been allowed to fight the guerrilla-style campaign at which he is adept. When Labour thought last week that it had an open goal on SNP plans for a local income tax, Mr Salmond simply moved the goalposts and returned to his favourite theme: the alleged failings of the Prime Minister. Mr Salmond has even felt comfortable enough to take up “independence for England” as a theme and to speculate on the benefits of an independence-lite “social union” (shared monarchy, shared currency, shared interests).
Mr Salmond will also know, however, that he is not there yet. The poll proves that support for Scottish separation is still a minority pursuit, with only just over one in four Scots supporting it. If the SNP holds its cherished referendum on independence in 2010, it would, on these figures, lose it easily.
When the dust has settled on the probable May 3 result, Mr Salmond as first minister could elect to rule in minority in Edinburgh or attempt a majority coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems say without hesitation that they would never countenance a coalition allowing a referendum on Scottish independence but, given what has happened in Stormont these past few days, “never” can be a flexible word in politics.
In all this, Labour and Mr Brown as prime minister (and indeed David Cameron) will be largely spectators. Who said devolution was boring?
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This correspondent reminds us of the time when Scotland actually increased its Labour vote during the Thatcher years, ending up with the self-styled "fighting 50" Labour MPs who promised to uphold our corner against an out-of-control Tory govt, who were so appalling to Scotland that they have subsequently apologised to us for it.
The fighting 50 soon became known as the "feeble 50" for most Scots, as they proceeded to do a bit of unheeded ranting, but precious little else, leaving us at the tender mercies of Thatcher and her SS stormtroopers who proceeded to wreck our economy and devastate our communities. She is hated still and this is reflected in the fact that the Tories are an insignificant force in Scottish politics.
We have seen how Labour looks after us and finally learnt our lesson - Goodbye.
The West Awake, Argyll, Almost Free Scotland
The Union affects both sides in an adverse way. We have to put up with the English forcing trident upon us, and the English have to put up with us forcing University fees upon them - both against the will of the people of each nation (and many many other examples).
It angers me that many on this website have taken to insulting Scotland as a whole for what a few pathetic Labour MP's do. Please England, do not hold Scots responsible for this, in the same way we do not hold Americans responsible for the actions of George Bush.
It is true that now, Scotland is given extra in taxation - and this is wrong, but there have been times where the opposite has been the case (c.f 60's and 70's and many other periods). However, it seems only when it is bad for you, that you all bring it up.
The best possible thing would be to start from scratch and let each nation fund itself.
Colin, Edinburgh, Scotland
As a young Scot who has never considered voting SNP or for independence the recent debates have really made me think hard about the choices available. My conclusion is that we would be better to split from the UK, forget oil revenues and these false arguments. The real reason to split is to energise the economy and defeat the dependency culture which prevails in much of Scotland. I think Labour want the status quo for the guaranteed seats while England will not want another Celtic Tiger on its doorstep. The next election should be interesting and I think the turnout may be higher than previously.
Ronnie, Glasgow, Scotland
Here are the economic figures for Scottish Independence. You'll see that the idea that the English subsidise the Scots is self-pitious twaddle and that the reverse is true. Sorry but we Scots are sick to death of subsidising the English.
http://www.scottishpolitics.org/scotching/greatdeception.html
Alex, Madrid, Spain
The Empire ended during WW1, it was cremated in 1947, in the 60s some politicians began to think that it might not go another 1000 years. Blair ended the union with devolution, let's not take so long finishing the job this time
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
I remember reading (was it Anatole Kaletsky before he bacame a Gordo toady?) that the Scottish infrastructure of roads, education, health etc etc is subsidised by the English taxpayer to the tune of £15 billion or more per annum. Naturally, the Scots will want political independence from England but will want the tide of free money to continue pouring over the border. Can we English taxpayers rely upon a Labour government to tell the scots to go hang for the cash? You all know the answer.
clive, surrey,
It seems to me England has lost and Empire and is looking for a role. That role should not be bullying and ruling its neigbouring smaller nations by quizzling and proxy.
Angus McLeoid, Toronto, Canada
Don't put too much strees on limited opinion polls when judging the strength of feeling for the return of Scottish sovereignty. The fact that the English are increasingly in favour of both Scotland and England reverting to their own self-determination has also been noticed by us. The English are suffering as much as we are from this 18th century anachronism aclled the Union. As Victor Hugo may have said, "Greater than the march of mighty armies is an idea whose time has passed." Goodbye doleful UK, hello fraternal Scotland/England.
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
Has anybody else noticed that since the majority of English have been in support of an independent Scotland those Scots calling for independence seem to have diminished in size and voice. Could it be that they now see they are onto a good thing, considering the fact that, per capita, the Scots receive the most government spending in the UK? Furthermore, if the English want Scotland independent then the issues of Scottish oil revenues benefiting England holds no weight. Suddenly, faced with the opportunity of becoming independent, many Scots are losing their voices. It's time for the English to become independent from the rest of the UK.. Now wouldn't that be ironic?
Michael Anthony, Birmingham, UK
Scottish people do not want to break away from the union. If William had read the article he would have realised this with the quoted poll figures. Most Scottish people have no faith in a Holyrood elected government to run anything other than a farce. The problem with England in this debate is that it is the South East that holds the debate. I doubt that many people in Northern (rural) England think differently to the Scots when it comes to their government current performance. I would guess that William doesn't spend too much time in the North, fitting in with the elected governments current thinking.
John, Egremont, Cumbria
William of Gloucester makes the usual mistake. If Scotland goes, there will be no UK! Better to renegotiate the whole union amicably now rather than angrily later. Independent nations which choose to cooperate sensibly on some issues are what is required. There would however be no "Westminster" to take Scotland into an unjust and illegal war.
Iain, GLASGOW, Scotland
William. My only regret is that it's still on the Union Flag.
The longer it stays, the longer the English taxpayer will have to fork out money to shore-up an undemocratic, biased and unfair system of multi-government.
Give Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland their independence and let the English and only the English govern England.
Simon, Chatham, Kent
If the Scotts wish to break away from the Union, their wishes should be granted by the rest of the UK. My only regret would be to see the removal of their flag from the Union Jack.
William , Gloucester, England
Labour are a party on the run in Scotland. When Jack McConnell announced his greatest achievement as being the Smoking ban the final nails were hammered into his coffin. It is undemocratic, based on a public response of 52,441 and does not allow freedom of choice. Additionally the fiasco recently when Scottish fishermen lost the quota of prawn fishing because of a UK ministers decision laid doubts about where Labour in Scotland stood. If Ross Finnie, the Scottish Fisheries Minister knew what was going to happen and did nothing he should resign, if he didn't know then he is " unfit for purpose " and should resign.
There is little doubt that Scottish people feel they are being ignored by Westminster and that the Labour led Scottish Executive can only follow orders given from London.
Little wonder that the SNP are getting such a support from the electorate.
Eddie Douthwaite, South Queensferry, Scotland
It is true that Scottish politics is look ing turbulent and interesting - but it is also true that the Nationalists don't look like a party pf government in waiting. If they were proposing to stick to labour spending limits, and putting off a referendum until they had been proven to be a party of government worth trusting, then I would believe this poll. But I just can't see it. The SNP keep proposing policies that could only be promised by a party believing that they wouldn't be in government. Writing off student debt, introducing a 'national local income tax' (you couldn't make it up) and opposing the private sector at every turn doesn't make them look like a party who deserve to be in government.
Fergus, Stirling,