The SNP is heading for victory in the Scottish parliamentary elections on May 3, in what would be a severe blow to Gordon Brown shortly before he becomes Prime Minister, an opinion poll for The Times suggests today.

Mr Brown could go into the next general election with the Nationalists the largest single party in his own backyard, and facing the prospect of an SNP-led minority executive in Edinburgh seeking to challenge him at every turn.

The Populus poll puts the Nationalists ahead of Labour in both the first-past-the-post and proportional-representation sections. They are on track to win 50 seats in the 129-seat Scottish Parliament, seven more than Labour. The Liberal Democrats would have 18 MSPs, the Conservatives 17 and the Greens one.

If the SNP leader Alex Salmond becomes First Minister, Mr Brown would face taunts that he would be a Scot in power in England whose writ did not run on issues such as health, education and transport in Scotland. And Mr Brown, if he becomes Prime Minister, would also be swiftly reminded that the Conservatives secured narrowly more votes in England than Labour at the last general election – leaving him open to claims that he has a mandate in neither country.

Today’s poll comes amid increasing signs that Mr Brown is unlikely to face a serious challenge for the Labour leadership. Some Blairite ministers have tried vainly to keep alive the prospect of a challenge by David Miliband, the Environment Secretary. Tony Blair is reported by friends to be irritated by what he sees as misguided attempts by some of his own allies to damage Mr Brown, believing they can only harm his party’s attempt to win a fourth term.

Mr Brown has tried to defuse opposition to a Scot running England by making a series of speeches about Britishness in recent years. It is possible that three Scots, Mr Brown, Alistair Darling, who could become Chancellor, and John Reid, who could stay as Home Secretary, will fill three of the main offices of state by the summer. But Jack Straw, who is to run Mr Brown’s campaign, is also reemerging as a contender to take over the Treasury.

The poll is not all good news for the SNP. A majority of Scots (52 per cent) are in favour of more devolved powers for their Parliament in Edinburgh and only just over one in four (27 per cent) backs full independence. The Nationalists have promised a referendum on separation towards the end of the new Parliament.

While Labour and the other unionist parties will take some comfort in that, the poll suggests that the SNP is about to take advantage of a widespread antiLabour sentiment. On the constituency or first-past-the-post vote, the Nationalists are on 38 per cent support to Labour’s 28 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 15 per cent, the Conservatives on 14 per cent and all others on 6 per cent.

In the regional list or proportional representation section, the Nationalists are also ahead, on 35 per cent to Labour’s 30 per cent. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are tied on 14 per cent.

The seat breakdown would give Mr Salmond the alternatives of a coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats or a minority Scottish Executive administration. The only way that the Nationalists could be stopped, on these figures, is if the three pro-Union parties – Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives – jointly came to some form of formal or informal coalition agrement to keep the SNP out of power.

A third successive Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition in Edinburgh appears to be out of the question. The two parties between them, on the Populus figures, would be able to muster only 61 seats. The poll, conducted after last week’s Budget, also indicates that Mr Brown’s 2p cut in the basic rate of income tax has made no impression on SNP support. The poll represents an advance for the SNP compared with an ICM poll for The Scotsman at the end of February which gave the Nationalists a 5 per cent lead over Labour on the constituency vote and a 4 per cent lead on the regional list vote.

Mr Salmond said the poll showed that the SNP’s policies were reflecting the mood of Scotland. “Labour’s negative campaign is rebounding on them in disastrous fashion. It is great news for the SNP and Scotland,” he said.

— Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults in Scotland by telephone between March 21 and 25, 2007. More details: www.populuslimited.com

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