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The SNP is heading for victory in the Scottish parliamentary elections on May 3, in what would be a severe blow to Gordon Brown shortly before he becomes Prime Minister, an opinion poll for The Times suggests today.
Mr Brown could go into the next general election with the Nationalists the largest single party in his own backyard, and facing the prospect of an SNP-led minority executive in Edinburgh seeking to challenge him at every turn.
The Populus poll puts the Nationalists ahead of Labour in both the first-past-the-post and proportional-representation sections. They are on track to win 50 seats in the 129-seat Scottish Parliament, seven more than Labour. The Liberal Democrats would have 18 MSPs, the Conservatives 17 and the Greens one.
If the SNP leader Alex Salmond becomes First Minister, Mr Brown would face taunts that he would be a Scot in power in England whose writ did not run on issues such as health, education and transport in Scotland. And Mr Brown, if he becomes Prime Minister, would also be swiftly reminded that the Conservatives secured narrowly more votes in England than Labour at the last general election – leaving him open to claims that he has a mandate in neither country.
Today’s poll comes amid increasing signs that Mr Brown is unlikely to face a serious challenge for the Labour leadership. Some Blairite ministers have tried vainly to keep alive the prospect of a challenge by David Miliband, the Environment Secretary. Tony Blair is reported by friends to be irritated by what he sees as misguided attempts by some of his own allies to damage Mr Brown, believing they can only harm his party’s attempt to win a fourth term.
Mr Brown has tried to defuse opposition to a Scot running England by making a series of speeches about Britishness in recent years. It is possible that three Scots, Mr Brown, Alistair Darling, who could become Chancellor, and John Reid, who could stay as Home Secretary, will fill three of the main offices of state by the summer. But Jack Straw, who is to run Mr Brown’s campaign, is also reemerging as a contender to take over the Treasury.
The poll is not all good news for the SNP. A majority of Scots (52 per cent) are in favour of more devolved powers for their Parliament in Edinburgh and only just over one in four (27 per cent) backs full independence. The Nationalists have promised a referendum on separation towards the end of the new Parliament.
While Labour and the other unionist parties will take some comfort in that, the poll suggests that the SNP is about to take advantage of a widespread antiLabour sentiment. On the constituency or first-past-the-post vote, the Nationalists are on 38 per cent support to Labour’s 28 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 15 per cent, the Conservatives on 14 per cent and all others on 6 per cent.
In the regional list or proportional representation section, the Nationalists are also ahead, on 35 per cent to Labour’s 30 per cent. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are tied on 14 per cent.
The seat breakdown would give Mr Salmond the alternatives of a coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats or a minority Scottish Executive administration. The only way that the Nationalists could be stopped, on these figures, is if the three pro-Union parties – Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives – jointly came to some form of formal or informal coalition agrement to keep the SNP out of power.
A third successive Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition in Edinburgh appears to be out of the question. The two parties between them, on the Populus figures, would be able to muster only 61 seats. The poll, conducted after last week’s Budget, also indicates that Mr Brown’s 2p cut in the basic rate of income tax has made no impression on SNP support. The poll represents an advance for the SNP compared with an ICM poll for The Scotsman at the end of February which gave the Nationalists a 5 per cent lead over Labour on the constituency vote and a 4 per cent lead on the regional list vote.
Mr Salmond said the poll showed that the SNP’s policies were reflecting the mood of Scotland. “Labour’s negative campaign is rebounding on them in disastrous fashion. It is great news for the SNP and Scotland,” he said.
— Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults in Scotland by telephone between March 21 and 25, 2007. More details: www.populuslimited.com
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The impotence of the Scottish Executive in the face of rendition flights and the removal of asylum seekers in dawn raids which most Scots abhor has been a strong factor in shifting the voter away from Labour. It has exposed the inability of the Executive to stand up for what the people of this country believe in. If the Executive do not have the powers then we have to find a way to change what for us is immoral.
Ellie McDonald, Dundee, Scotland
I take an unfashionable view. I believe in a United Kingdom, but a federal one. A United Kingdom completely changed, with our current mess of a so-called constitution torn up and government, instead of ruling us, being ruled by us. That said, if the Scots desire independence I believe in their right to self-determination. That said, I don't believe most Scots actually want independence, I think they just want a change. A change to a government that puts the values of the French Revolution: liberty, equality, fraternity first. Whatever else the SNP stand for, they stand for that.
Chris Terry, Plymouth,
Good luck to the SNP but sadly I suspect that the scots won't actually put a cross where it matters when it matters. However, after tolerating generations of contemptuous anti-English sneering from north of the border, coupled with the democratic deficit suffered under this Scottish govt , the 'sassenachs' have begun to get a sense of themselves once again. Ultimately if the Scots don't do it, it will be the English who say "enough is enough". The sooner the better.
John, Hampshire, England
As an SNP supporter I welcome the generally positive remarks from English ,and other, people on this site who are sensible and supportive regarding our impending departure from the UK. I only wish our own Scottish Unionist politicians were so fair and positive, all we get from them is harum-scarum, negative anti-propaganda designed to frighten the easily frigthtened. To be fair this tactic worked last time round and an SNP lead was slashed going to the polls, but no-one in Fortress Labour seems to have noticed that this time it isn't working - people are rather responding to the visionary, positive, practical and fair policies of the SNP.
An exciting time to be in Scotland!
The West Awake, Argyll, Almost Free Scotland
I wont be voting Labour because of the hash that Scottish Labour have made. The Lib Dems make policy centrally and then campaign against those policies locally, so cannot be trusted. The SNP will increase unemployment massively, by closing Faslane, closing down the nuclear power stations (from which we get 50% of our electricity), and by the infantry regiments having no role other than as a home defence force, the Tories have few, if any policies to judge them on. The Greens want to stop me using my car and the Socialists (under whatever banner) want to give all of my money to the unemployed and unemployable.
Whi is there left to vote for?
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Nivarhna is Scottish independance from England.
Please please Scotland vote SNP.
An Englishman
barton stacy, Salisbury,
David, Manchester, UK
"With an SNP government and independence expect a wave of refugees heading south. Scotland will empty"
You might find the opposite happening?
Richard McIntosh, Edinburgh,
Independence for Scotland is an idea whose time has come. If Gordon Brown really believed it would not be to Scotland's financial benefit why does not he and the English demand we leave toute suite? How British do the English really feel when they say "England" repeatedly when they mean all the components of these disunited islands?
Their "Britishness" will be put to the test when Westminster is run by three Scots in the top jobs? I shouldn't be surprised if they if they cried out for "English Independence".
"The rose of all the world is not for me.
I want for my part the little white rose of Scotland
that smells so sharp and sweet
And breaks the heart"
James L McAndrew, AYR, Scotland
Robert, Christchurch: Parents in London are buying anti-stab vests in order to protect their children. That's one very simple piece of evidence which supports my statement. Hopefully, the crime we have to endure in the cities does not reach out as far as Dorset.
Rick, London, England
if the people desert Scotland it will be the Brits that we dont want anyway.. good ridence to them
mr m morrison, Dunbar, Scotland
If the Tories oppose a proportional representation electoral system they have no legitimate cause for complaint when they end up with more votes & fewer seats in England than Labour. I think they are both undemocratic & insane to support a system that gives Labour such an advantage but that is their choice.
Neil Craig, Glasgow, Scotland
With an SNP government and independence expect a wave of refugees heading south. Scotland will empty
David, Manchester, UK
First I have to declare an interest, I don't support Labour.
However as the party that has the national majority then it does have a mandate across the whole of Britain, even if the SNP have more in Scotland and the Tories more in England. Those 2 parties seem singularly incapable of appealing to anybody but their own countries (the SNP admittedly have a good reason for being non-existent outside Scotland, the Tories don't).
It just so happens that Labour are in 3rd place in my local council elections, does that mean they have no mandate to pass laws that affect me?
simon evans, watford,
I think its fantastic that the SNP are doing well, although not a fan of the BNP I support nationalism or rather national pride. Being Italian I therefore go EURO! and support the Lib Dems who will bring this country up to speed with the glamour and pride of being European. Go on you Scots! Gordon Brown can't possibly be the best candidate labour have?
Silvio, Cambridge, U.K.
Rick of London is wrong on one thing: crime has been falling in England and Wales for 15 years (this is according to the British Crime Survey and not to official figures, which can be "massaged"). The Tory press (ie, most of it) has been trying deliberately to create a different impression. But this is probably not of much relevance to an independent Scotland - except that the economic disaster which would probably result would encourage crime there considerably!
Robert, Christchurch, Dorset
It would be helpful if everyone read the article before commenting!
"The poll is not all good news for the SNP. A majority of Scots (52 per cent) are in favour of more devolved powers for their Parliament in Edinburgh and only just over one in four (27 per cent) backs full independence."
Independence is a long way off. However, getting rid of the Lib/Labour pact at Holyrood is only weeks away.
John Waddell, Banchory, Scotland, United Kingdom
It could be correct that the Labour hegemony over Scotland is coming to an end . They are tired , self interested and have nothing new to say . High time they were put out to grass . The SNP are certainly fresh and look likely to be given a chance , particularly now that they are going quiet on the promise of outright independence immediately .
By the way , England feels perfectly happy with the SNP and an English government , not that b--dy bunch at Westminster , will get along with an SNP government in Scotland very well indeed .
John , Winchester , England
There would have been a great chance here for the Tories for a comeback in Scotland if they had shown any signs of decent leadership. Sadly, they didn't show any interest in making a real effort to prepare for power, or to building an effective leadership team in Scotland- they just wrote it off, so they missed the opportunity to pounce, now that it's arisen. That's what we're seeing in England as well- Cameron has decent ideas and the style to present them, but the Tory membership is still largely the inflexible ultra right "hang 'em; flog 'em" brigade who reject the need to upgrade and change. Unless they take a tumble to themselves, they'll screw up the next election. The tory right wing is Gordon Brown's secret weapon.
Doug, Glasgow,
Independence for Scotland and England will be good for both countries. Both countries can then progress as good neighbours each having their own people looking after their own affars. The only people to 'suffer' would be the scots representatives at Westminster who would have to give up their cushy careers. Would they be willing to come back and work for us in Scotland?
George, Edinburgh,
It must be wonderful to have the option of escaping from the mess of Labours watch. Why have Wales and Scotland their own assemblies when they dont have complete responsibility for their own affairs.A complete organisation of Parlimental affairs should be undertaken to these ends.. If the present or future administrations wouldnt have the courage then eventually it will be taken out of their hands by the people concerned
Marian Oakley, Abbeyfeale, Republic of Ireland
Tthe vast majority of Scots are happy with their lot! As you drive around Scotland you can see it is now a very prosperous country, with levels of employment at an all time high! The skylines of all the major cities are draped with hundreds of cranes! As you drive north along the new A1 from East Lothian into Edinburgh, thousands of luxury homes are being built along this corridor, and are snapped up by Edinburgh commuters as soon as they are completed. Research by the Paris-based O.E.C.D. has found Edinburgh is one of the fastest growing cities in Europe! Many English correspondents complain this is due to the Barnet largesse but since Devolution, unprecedented billions in private invesment has poured in from around the world! A vote for the SNP is now but a political decision, and when the time comes, the majority of Scots voters will think twice before casting their vote for the SNP as they now have the best of both worlds! Quasi-federal status!
Mr Lachie Todd, Edinburgh, Scotland, U.K.
it's interesting to me how many Scots and their decendants have done so well in the N. America while our cousins in Scotland continue to labor for marginally better lives. let's see; they get more money from London per capita than they send to the treasury, have the highest incidence of cirrhosis of the liver in Europe, and a host of other embarassing indices. could it possibly be the system that's broken? you know, the one that offers cradle to grave coddling for inactivity and lack of initiative and taxes those who do. we have some of that here, and events in New Orleans highlighted the affects of it....people didn't have the good sense to think for themselves and relied on an inept government to provide for them. i hope the Scots go independent - for their sake. when they find they can't afford their lifestyle sans English taxmoney they might get off their duffs and break a sweat and make something of themselves as a single unified nation...wouldn't that be novel and for the better?
ian, phoenix, arizona, usa
The general feeling in Scotland, as in the rest of the UK, is that people have had it to the back teeth with this government, and its puppets in Edinburgh. The overuse of Sewell motions has been noted (those used to transport Westminster legislation wholesale into Scots law), but not taken enough notice of by the media. As I've indicated, the worst legislation (all rushed through at breakneck speed) is being trialled in Scotland, Poll-Tax style, to be rolled out across the UK - if you are daft enough to let them push it through. Although I welcome a change in governing party, I am deeply disappointed that the political opposition at Holyrood has failed to oppose such oppressive legislation. The appalling waste of taxpayers money on PFI, databases, Trident and the Iraq war, to say nothing of the evils inherent in these things, means that basic services are not being provided. The wholly authoritarian, even fascistic, nature of this government is proving its undoing. Roll on May 3rd!
Fiona Sinclair, Ayrshire, Scotland
Scottish Labour have made an absolute mess of the Scottish economy. Growth here is well behind that of the UK overall.
Brown's economic incompetence and disdain for Scotland has been further demonstrated by his decision to raise corporation tax for small companies which represent 98% of all Scottish businesses.
We've had enough of him and Labour. He's wrecked our pensions, increased personal debt to record levels and destroyed manufacturing to the extent that the trade deficit in goods is now at historical record levels.
Dick, Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire
Wayne Morris, Port Talbot, Great Britain
Wayne has no confidence in his own people or Wales, this is sad.
Whilst Wayne is in the majority, Wales will never ammount to anything other than being a second class UK back water.
End of!
Angus McLeoid, Toronto, Canada
The Scotsman reported a few weeks ago that back in 1998 Jack McConnell expected the SNP would win a majority of Scottish votes. The Liberal Democrats' most senior political aide, Andy Myles, believed that Scotland would become an independent country.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=298422007
John, London,
There is a settled will in Scotland that Labour's time has come and gone and they have failed the people. Britishness does not sit with Scottish people, it makes them feel unclean / inadequate. I am particularly happy that many of the contributors to this piece are English and encouraging Scotland to become independent. This is good, carping at this stage will cause cracks that need not be there, i.e. Scotland and England should emerge from political separation with strong but equal ties, in the same mould as England and Ireland currently.
SNP and other Scottish nationalists do not use defamatory words about the English to gain political favour with the Electorate, English or Scottish Unionist politicians should not use defamatory words about the Scots to bind them to a marriage that should never have happened and is long past its sell by date.
Angus McLeoid, Toronto, Canada
It appears that New Labour biggest achievement is in completely destroying what was once the best political system in the world. No system is perfect but ours was as good as it could be. They don't think about the end game. Witness Iraq and other sorry messes. Instead they go for short term popularity, but the outcomes (often predicted by opponents whom they dismiss) are far more difficult to deal with. Were they to actually have thought out the end game, we would still have a good political system and they would have a chance of retaining power.
Brown replacing Blair would be even more disastrous. A complete clean sweep is required and this has reached the stage where the country should decide. Time to listen to the people not the overpaid spin doctors.
My grandfather was right. Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Pete, West Kilbride,
Tony Blair said that Scotland would always vote Labour in a General Election and then went off to win over middle England. If at their lowest ebb Labour voters will still produce 43 seats in the Holyrood assembly then its pretty certain they arent really the types to change their minds. Brown will be PM for 7 years on theses results.
jj, Cambridgeshire, UK
No matter what the polls say the SNP still has an uphill struggle against all of the media in Scotland and a voting system which was intended to thwart them. (Labour have about 30% of the vote but 40% of the MSPs). Let's hope that they do make the breakthrough in May.
John Jamieson, Edinburgh,
"how are English citizens (or subjects?) defined in Scotland by residence or nationality?"
by residence and by their personal choice.
Look it up on the SNP website (which is all terribly reasonable by the way). Look up SNP Programme for the first 100 days
http://www.snp.org/policies/government-communities/the-first-100-days-of-an-snp-government
Derick fae Yell, Stirlingshire,
Labour's chickens are surely coming home to roost.
Henry Northcroft, London, England
Does anybody really think the SNP will be any different to Labour? You only have to read the lies on their website which I have e-mailed them about but of course they have not replied to. An example is they claim they want an independent Scotland within the EU, as we all know that is not possible. They claim to be able to negotiate the relationship Scotland wants with the EU again this is lies because they would have to take everything lock, stock and barrel. If they refused to accept say the common fisheries policy they would be out. Do they really think that given our history France would not see an opportunity to get their own back on a small weak Scotland and a smaller weaker UK? Scottish independence would benefit nobody except other countries outside the current UK.
Wayne Morris, Port Talbot, Great Britain
Scotland - go for it! Have the same courage as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, and hopefully one day soon my own country, Wales, and let's get rid of the remaining colonies - COLONIES! - in Europe.
Dafydd Bullock, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Looks like the poisoned chalice which Blair has been preparing for Commissar Brown for many months now is proving to be really toxic.
The people of England, Scotland and N.Ireland are signalling that they are totally sick of Labour's lies over Iraq, the alarming worsening of crime, the death throes of the NHS, the enormous and growing tax burden; we have all had enough and cannot wait to see them go.
Rick, London, England
Unreported by the Scottish media - or by any of the UK media - is the fact that the Scottish Executive has rubberstamped a succession of regressive pieces of legislation - such as the Mental Health Act, which will now permit the state to incarcerate people with a `mental disorder` and to forcibly drug adults AND children `in the community`. `Care in the community` hardly comes into it, because there are no services at all for people with autism, who would be classed under this legislation as having a `mental disorder`. Autistic people need appropriate services - not drugging with dangerous, drugs, which destroy their mental and physical health. Added to this oppressive law, the Scottish Executive saw fit to promote the forced removal of `vulnerable people` from their own homes under the `Adult Support and Protection Bill` by the very people who refuse services to those vulnerable people - officials of local councils. Family members who resist such granny-napping face imprisonment.
Fiona Sinclair, Ayrshire, Scotland
The amusing thing would surely be to listen in to the private and very secret discussions within the New Labour cabinet about the SNP winning and the likely independence of Scotland that might follow. It is an act of desperation for Gordon Broiwn to pretend he is not Scots, but "British". And after all we must thank Tony Blair for all his arrogance (is he Scots too?) for leading us into a completely new constitutional postion within the United Kingdom (A UK no longer). Those who are English 'resident' in Scotland must vote SNP! Incidentally, how are English citizens (or subjects?) defined in Scotland by residence or nationality?
Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines
There's no way the Greens will go down to one seat from seven. I've seen how these clowns do their polling, and you have to insist you're not voting Tory/Lib Dem/SNP/Labour several times before they believe you.
James, Edinburgh,
One big question for Brown is will he still be a Member of Parliament, never mind Prime Minister, after the next general election? " Scotland is beginning to realise that Labour and the Union have had their day and Brown has shown he is only interested in Brown. The time has come for a big change.
Ron Hutchison, Isle of Tiree, Scotland
The sooner the Scotts leave the union the better ,less tax and less moaning for the English to put up with. They think there black gold will keep them in the high life, the way they blow there money it will soon be gone aong with ther livers and lungs. Oh and dont forget the end of the Labour party in England too, there really is no down side for us in fact we should start campaining for the SNP now
Garry Webster, Norwich,
Sorry John. Brown can never appeal to the English electorate with his call to 'Britishness'. There is a growing feeling for an 'English' parliament in Westminster that would vote on English matters. brown and the rest of the tartan mafia can go hang or try and get elected from English seat as Ryfind and Fox have done for the Tories.
oldasiahand, Guildford, UK
The long Labour hegemony is Scotland is coming to a merciful end.What a mercy it will be to get rid of them.
Gonyursel, Taynuilt, Argyll
This brightened up my breakfast considerably.
Down with New Labour, down with the Scottish Raj, down with asymmetric democracy, and down with Mr 'nations-and-regions' Brown.
Scotland, do the decent thing and vote SNP for your friends south of the border. We're cheering you all the way.
Gareth Young, Brighton, England
Let's see what the real poll on May 3rd says. It's still over 5 weeks to go and as they say a week is a long time in politics. Still, it would good if the Scots are as fed up with Labour as many in England are. Time to get rid of this authoritarian anti-civil liberty Stalinist (or statist if you like) government.
Ian Burgess, Bristol,
This is reflecting the mood on the streets and in the communities of Scotland that Labour has had it's day in governing us. For 10 years we have been promised change. Instead our council tax goes up. Our child poverty rates go up. Our services are cut. Labour lack vision. It's time for a government we can trust and Alex Salmond's SNP are just the ticket.
Grant Thoms, Glasgow, Scotland
Hooray! Great to read a good-news story for once. And a whole five weeks to go...
Mark, Lytham,
The problem for Brown is that the veneer of Britishness he has assumed is so thin that voters can see through his clumsy attempt to appeal to the English electorate.
John, Glasgow,