Angus Macleod, Scottish Political Editor
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The Nationalist surge in Scotland is faltering, although the SNP still leads Labour with less than two weeks to go in the election campaign, according to a new opinion poll.
The exclusive Populus poll for The Times also shows a significant upswing of support for the Liberal Democrats, reinforcing their position as key players in Scotland’s next ruling coalition after May 3.
If the Lib Dems maintain their progress right up to polling day, it even raises the possibility that what is Scotland’s third-largest party would be able to demand — if they failed to strike a deal with the SNP — that Nicol Stephen, their leader north of the Border, becomes First Minister as the price of another coalition with Labour.
The poll shows that the race for power in Scotland is building to a dramatic climax. The recent onslaught by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown against the Nationalists appears to have had only a marginal impact but the SNP will be concerned that the momentum it has had for months appears to have stalled, threatening its hopes of emerging as the largest party.
There is also bad news for the Nationalists on the question of independence, with Populus finding that only 22 per cent of Scots now back the break-up of Britain. That is down 5 per cent on a similar poll last month, providing further hard evidence that the SNP surge is more an antiLabour phenomenon than a pro-independence movement.
But only the Lib Dems can claim real comfort from our poll. Despite sharing power with Labour for the past eight years in Scotland, they appear increasingly to be the recipient of support from those who want to punish Labour but cannot bring themselves to support the SNP and a move towards independence.
The Lib Dems, who want Westminster to devolve more powers to Scotland within the UK, have made a sizeable advance in both sections of our poll.
The poll shows that support for the SNP on the first-past-the-post constituency vote is now at 34 per cent, down 4 points on last month. Labour is at 30 per cent, up 2, the Lib Dems are on 18 per cent, up 3, the Conservatives are on 13 per cent, down 1, and there is 6 per cent support for other parties.
On the proportional representation, or regional list, section of the poll, support for the SNP has also fallen, down 1 per cent to 34 per cent. Labour are on 27 per cent, down 3, the Lib Dems are on 18 per cent, up 4, and the Conservatives remain unchanged from last month on 14 per cent. Other parties attract 7 per cent support, with 3 per cent of that going to the Greens.
Translated into seats at Holyrood, the Nationalists would be the largest party with 46 seats in the 129-seat Parliament in Edinburgh, down 4 from the same poll last month but 19 more than they won in 2003. Labour would have 42 seats, one fewer than last month but down eight on 2003. The Lib Dems would have 23 MSPs, five more than last month’s Populus poll suggested and six more than in 2003. The Conservatives would have 17, the same as last month but one fewer than they won in 2003.
The poll also suggests that the squeeze on the smaller parties and independents is tightening, with the Greens the only minor party to retain an MSP, six fewer than the seven they had in the last Parliament. The far-left parties and the independents, who performed above expectations in 2003, would be left without any representation, according to Populus.
On the future governance of Scotland, the poll found that those who believed that Scotland should be fully independent had slid from 27 per cent in March to only 22 per cent now. Those who backed the present devolution settlement had remained almost constant at 11 per cent, down 1 per cent. Support for more powers for Edinburgh had risen appreciably, however, to 56 per cent, an increase of 4 per cent on last month.
There is also chastening news for Alex Salmond and the Nationalists on the question of who would make the best First Minister, with Populus finding that Jack McConnell, the Labour incumbent, has overtaken Mr Salmond. Both were level at 27 per cent last month but backing for Mr McConnell has gone up by 1 per cent while support for Mr Salmond has remained static.
Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, remains at 10 per cent while 7 per cent think that Mr Stephen, the Lib Dem leader in Scotland, who will almost certainly be the pivotal figure in coalition talks next month, should lead Scotland.
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If, six months ago, you had offered the SNP a four point lead, two weeks ahead of the election, we'd have been rather pleased about that.
Believe me, a majority of four per cent for me on polling day will suit me just fine.
andrew sharp, East Lothian,
So 78% want either more powers or independence? Sounds like pretty good news for the SNP to me. More powers can only mean full fiscal autonomy (including access to oil revenues) whereafter, logically, full fiscal control must follow and, ultimately, independence.
Independence, as oppose to the status quo, is supported by majorities on both sides of the border, Angus, and all your spin about 'breaking up britain' ain't going to stop it.
What will you tell your kids when they ask you what you did to help Scotland become an independent and prosperous nation? That you tried to sabotage the process?
Jim Orr, Sokolniki, Moscow
The SNP have never been ahead 2 weeks before an election.
Labour has fought the most dreadfully negative campaign ever, with appalling scaremongering commonplace.
To succeed thus far is to the credit of the SNP. The whole election has been on their agenda, and they are clearly where the future for Scotland lies.
David Nummey, London,
very poor reporting. The SNP still well ahead and the Times potrays this as faltering.
Bill , Edinburgh, Scotland
The poll shows 22% support for independence because there is another option of further powers with 56%, but what is meant by extra powers,, it is not well enough defined? In polls with a straight yes/no in favour of independence, the independence the yes vote is usually higher than the no vote, which suggests that many people see little difference between independence and further powers.
H, Tranent,
This poll is probably quite accurate, but the seat prediction is absurd as the poll, fails to measure at all the smaller parities and independents, In a UK first past the post election to a 650 member parliament this barely matters, but in an regional list based PR system it is just intellectually absurd to interpret polls in this way. To be fair, Angus Macleod is doing is what near all the Scottish jounos do. But they got it wrong in 2003 - neat all missing the rise of the greens who got 6 seats and the SSP who got 5, plus 3 independents - so a total of 14.âothersâ, rather a lot in a 129 parliament. This time, it will be nearer 20 for sure . But this interpretation of an accuratish poll has the "others" at 1. Go back to school Angus and the rest of you. You are covering an election for another electoral system and for another place. And it will likely be these 20 or so others that will make or break Alex Salmond and ultimately the Union. Find out more at www.youscotland.com
Alan Smart, Falkirk, Scotland
Oh Woe!
The SNP lead in the Polls - again - I bet the other parties wish they had this bad news!
Andrew Hendry, Edinburgh,
The spin that Angus Macleod has put on this story, encapsulated in the headline, is nothing short of bizarre. Here is a poll that shows the SNP in a clear lead, just two weeks before an election which, if they go on to win, would mark a truly historic breakthrough. Imagine if the Lib Dems were in a similar position in the polls with two weeks to go before a Westminster general election. Would any newspaper be daft enough to say "Lib Dem bandwagon stalls" or "Lib Dems falter"? I think everyone would just be marvelling at the continued strength of their position (fainting from the shock, more likely).
Frances, Glasgow, Scotland
Is it realy fair (cricket) that we English have to put up with scotish experts on our Football, economics, government ,
in fact everything and we just take it.
Back in scotland ( I worked there for 2years) they want there own independance and national pride, now when we are all europeans they should get it and not one of them should be in Westminister.
Alan Dick, Newcastle, Northumberland
Sorry Mr McLeod, you are not credible. You wrote this article before the election started. We have been waiting for it and we are not frightened by it.
You had better write two articles for publication on 4th May. The reality one after the count of votes and your dream one any day now.
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
The last 3 polls have shown a SNP decline and a Labour gain but populus polls arent exactly the most reliable and also the SNP has never matched the performance in the polls with the election performance, so if we went into polling day with a poll similar to this I would be quite confident of a Labour victory. Lets hope we get some more polls soon to get a clearer picture and some regional polls one carried out in the North East recently showed a massive SNP lead which would suggest the SNP doing well in areas where they are already strong but possibly not as well in the central belt.
Darryl Matheson, Elgin, Morayshire, UK
The problem with this whole article is that the last times populus poll showed the SNP doing far better than previous polls.
It is probably the case thatthe last poll was a blip.
The figures here far more in line with the other polsters over recent weeks and that just confirms that the SNP are still on taget to be the largest party and that labour are going to get a kicking.
The other flaw is that the likes of Margo McDonald and Tommy Sheridan may well get in on the back of strong local votes which don't show up on a national poll. For the same reason i'd expectthe greens to meet the threshold for seats in more than one region even on a 3% poll.
Peter Cairns, Inverness, Scotland
Why is England the only one of the four fome countries that doesn't have its own Parliament? Whoever wins the election, and whether Scotland regains its independance or merely gains greater devolved powers - or, indeed, whether Scotland remains as it is in terms of devolution / independance - isn;t it about time that the Government started treating England fairly by setting up an English Parliament?
Richard, Manchester,
This poll is probably quite accurate, but the seat prediction is absurd as the poll, fails to measure at all the smaller parities and independents, In a UK first past the post election to a 650 member parliament this barely matters, but in an regional list based PR system it is just intellectually absurd to interpret polls in this way. To be fair, Angus Macleod is doing is what near all the Scottish jounos do. But they got it wrong in 2003 - neat all missing the rise of the greens who got 6 seats and the SSP who got 5, plus 3 independents - so a total of 14.âothersâ, rather a lot in a 129 parliament. This time, it will be nearer 20 for sure . But this interpretation of an accuratish poll has the "others" at 1. Go back to school Angus and the rest of you. You are covering an election for another electoral system and for another place. And it will likely be these 20 or so âothersâ that will make or break Alex Salmond and ultimately the Union. Find out more at www.youscotland.com
Alan Smart, Falkirk, Scotland
This poll shows what most analysts have expected over the past few months - many undecided Labour voters choosing to continue support Labour, but many others still unsure how to vote. SNP tax rises have clearly dented SNP support, but it seems that undecided Labour voters still aren't sure who to vote for. If Labour are to remain in government they need to present a positive reason to vote Labour rather than just their accurate expose of the potential disaster for Scotland of an SNP administration.
Steven Lang, Glasgow,
What laughable spin is attempted here - I find the way the SNP's lead in the polls is portrayed as some sort of disaster for them hilarious.
Diomedes Kane, Glasgow,
This is hardly disasterous news for the SNP. Yes it's heartening for the Lib Dems but it's devastating to Labour. Only 2 weeks to go and they have made no serious impact on the SNP's lead over them - what they might have gained on the constituency vote they have lost on the list. A pinch of salt comes to mind reading this analysis...
Grant Thoms aka Tartan Hero, Glasgow, Scotland
So we are supposed to believe that support for Independence has halved over the spce of a few days are we?
I rather suspect that the majority of people holding a view for Scotish Independence have held it for a considerable period of time and would therefore be unlikely to change their position quite as readily as suggested.
Furthermore, I believe that linking the Independence issue to the Holyrood vote is a mischievous exercise, designed to mislead. Even if the SNP won the Scottish election by a landslide there would still be a referendum on the independence issue. Linking the two is a Labour attempt to frighten voters into voting for a Unionist party.
Unbeliever, Livingston,