Tom Gordon
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THE Scottish National party is on course for a decisive victory in the Holyrood election, according to the most comprehensive survey of public opinion since the campaign began.
With only 11 days to go until polling, the SNP continues to extend its lead over Labour, which now requires a seismic turnaround in its fortunes to avoid defeat.
A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts the SNP seven points clear of Labour in both the first-past-the-post and regional votes for the Scottish parliament. In the constituency vote, the SNP is on 37%, Labour 30%, the Liberal Democrats 15%, the Scottish Conservatives 14% and others 4%. In the regional vote the SNP is on 35%, Labour 28%, the Tories and Lib Dems 13% and other 11%.
If replicated in the election on May 3, it would put the SNP on 50 seats, eight ahead of Labour, with the Lib Dems on 18, the Tories on 16, with the Greens capturing two seats and independent candidates fighting over a single seat.
The result would leave Labour and the Lib Dems five seats short of being able to form a majority coalition and would almost certainly result in an SNP/Lib Dem administration. The poll also indicates that Labour appears to have misjudged the public mood by refusing to endorse more powers for the Scottish parliament. A majority of Scots favour extending the devolution settlement in one form or another with only 17% supporting the status quo.
A minority of voters - 26% - support full independence, with seven out of ten believing that separatism would mean higher taxes and 42% saying they would be worse off.
However, 70% want the chance to vote in an independence referendum - which would include a question on more powers — within the next four years.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Jack McConnell accepted that more powers were now “inevitable”. The first minister, who spent yesterday campaigning with Gordon Brown in Edinburgh, said the current devolution settlement was “flexible”, adding: “I have no doubt that there will be other powers transferred in the next four years.”
The SNP will seek to drive home its advantage this week by publishing a list of 100 top Scottish business people who support the party. Among them are Brian Souter, the Stagecoach chairman, Sandy Orr, chief executive of City Inn Hotels, and Dan Macdonald, chief executive of Macdonald Estates.
The poll reveals that Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, continues to enjoy higher personal ratings than any of his rivals, with 35% of voters believing he would make a good first minister, compared with 23% for McConnell.
Twice as many find McConnell dull, out of touch and not leadership material, while four times as many view him as weak. Salmond is considered more arrogant but also more likable, intelligent and trustworthy.
The poll also contains bad news for Brown, the chancellor, who is failing to win support for his attempt to become prime minister even in his own country. More Scots (40%) think he would be bad for Scotland than good (35%).

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The usual stuff by and large displayed on these comment's, it's either self-righteous unionist Scots going on about being part of an imperial power & swaning aboot the world saying hey we're British Scots blah, blah, blah. Or it's the churlish English nationalist going on about how rich England is going to be now they're rid of the haggis muchin sweaty's-what a predictable shower of trumpet's!
The fact the Westminster brigade hid a report by Gavin MacCrone (Government authorised) for 30 years in the official secrets act because it stated how rich an Independent Scotland would be shows just enough why we can go our own way. These comments through the various English papers by English nationalists/Scottish Unionists are of the kind I would expect from school kids, we don't need England & we don't need her Westminster wars every 10 to 15 years. If Scottish unionists don't like it they can do a runner & Scottish Nationalist's will carry the future with them Alba gu brath(Scotland for ever
Keith Hendry, Pitlochry, Perthshire
Well folks the games up for Westminster,the Scots have financially woken up,so never mind the arrogance in the comments above ,more like shudder to think what kind of aid England will need upon the edge of the 'Third World',but thankfully I'm sure it will not come to that as the the process of quiet implosion within Europe will have begun.
Angus Smith, Fairbanks, Alaska
Just a question from an outsider:
You don't have the impression that it's England the rich that's getting rid of Scotland the poor, and making the Scots believe it's a glorious battle?
Michel, Rennes, France
Why split somethign that isn't broken? Independence is the most ridiculous thing that is being promoted in this electoral campaign. If the SNP cannot publish the costs and any other relevant figures, then it is only morons that would want to vote for them. Too many people are stuck in the idealistic notion that Scotland has to fight for its freedom. These people need to wake up and smell the reality. We are a significant part of the UK, one of the most influential countries in the world...why give up that power, to let "Brussels (capital of the EU)" take over from London. What will happen then, will we have to fight for independence from Belgium next. It's all swings and roundabouts. Be sensible, actually read the manifestos before you all make a silly mistake!
RK, Glasgow,
Archie, Falkirk - I have friends and relatives in England too and they are delighted that Scotland has come alive with positivity. They can at least see an end to beggar-my-neighbour. If you maintain your Scottish cringe and miserablism, I think you may find you are less welcome down south.
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
I'm just glad that I have relatives and contacts in England so that I can hop of down south if and when the whole thing goes belly up here in Scotland. Its all braveheart stuff here at the moment - people seem to have taken leave of their senses. We'll have years of instability and political bickering and the eye will be of the ball about the real thiings that need sorting in Scotland.
Archie, Falkirk,
The Scots seem to have seen through Labour's negative campaign and it may not be a protest vote-remember the Scots could have gone for the Lib-Dems as a protest. The Scots see other northern European nations with more growth than them and many of them gained their independence comparitively recently. They also feel that being part of the UK is holding Scotland back.The confidence in Scotland is back and it's positive!
Graeme Clark, Banchory, Aberdeenshire
Thanks for your support, Nicolas from Brussels. Gregor from Glasgow makes an excellent point when he asks why are the Scottish papers ignoring these polls?
Those of us who like a good read will be forced to change to the Times or Telegraph to make sure we are geting all the news, fairly reported as it happens. Having said that I'm amazed that a Murdoch newspaper is being allowed to be so impartial. Hope you manage to keep it up until May 3rd.
Brian Hill, Edinburgh,
I can't understand the fear of independence. The so-called national newspapers in Scotland exercise an independence of their own by ignoring the growth and popularity of the SNP in favour of total bias towardsLabour and, in the case of The Scotsman, a total bias in favour of anyone but the SNP.
No wonder it's known as The Hootsmon for it is a hoot.
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
Another set of reasonably fair and balanced articles on the Scottish Election today. And for that reason I bought the print edition of the Sunday Times Scotland today for the first time ever. Times - Keep up this quality of reporting and you have got yourself another customer (formerly reader of the 'Sunday Labour', sorry 'Sunday Herald'.
Derick, Denny, Scotland
Scots, vote for the SNP and your independence. You better off managing your own affairs. Especially your own foreign and defence policy. Split the UK and decrease it's strength and influence in Europe and the world. Time has come that Brussels (capital of the European Union) will take the lead in Europe and play a key role on the world stage.
Nicolas Partèrre, Brussels, Belgium
I think Alan Smart is wrong in his comments to say that he expects others to get 10 seats. I'd expect the SSP to suffer heavy losses and for Tommy Sheridan to lose his seat. The real story, however, is why Scots have to rely on newspapers like the Times to publish polls. None of the so-called Scottish quailities have bothered to publish any and the Herald allegedly buried a poll they had commissioned since it didn't reflect their editorial bias. It's nat bashing season up here. The season's open until May 3rd.
Gregor Addison, Glasgow, Scotland
This is all quite accurate except for your poll rating to seats calculations, You miss completely the others and way underestimate the Greens, The Greens, who had 6 seats in the last parly will get close to 10 seats and the others -, independents , Socialists, Pensioners Party, Scottish Voice - will probably get another 10 giving a block of 20. But your poll predict only 2, both Greens,
Now this is 129 PR parliament in which has as PR system, so the only thing certain is that no single party will have a majority. So missing out a block of around 20 is a pretty big miss - like missing Germany out of Europe!
Why do our academics and media - you do not alone Sunday Times- do this? Perhaps they are just thick. But I think not. Time warped would be more accurate - another electoral system, another time, another country, And near allow them are Scottish, and some strong advocates of PR - so should know better
Find out more at www.youscotland.com
Alan Smart, Falkirk, Scotland
i could have predicted your headline. i did that you gov poll and imo it contained many leading questions, with an snp bias. the only poll that matters is the one on the 3rd of may.
tommy, glasgow,