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to The Sunday Times
Reputation is not the same as impact. Most of the comments on yesterday’s tenth anniversary of Tony Blair’s first election victory, many premature obituaries, have confused the two. Dislike of Mr Blair personally and of his record, particularly over Iraq, has led many to write him off as a failure. But he has unquestionably had a big, and probably lasting, influence on the British political landscape. Mr Blair is preparing to leave office at a low point in his standing, as will no doubt be confirmed in tomorrow’s elections. The Iraq war is obviously crucial, seen by 69 per cent as what Mr Blair will be most remembered for during this time as Prime Minister, according to a Communicate Research poll for The Independent – though 61 per cent still think that he has been a good prime minister.
Some assessments have been so vituperative and one-sided as to be ridiculous. It is nonsense to describe the past decade as a disaster for Britain and the economy. This is not to accept the hubristic picture offered by the Treasury. As always, the truth lies in between. There has been less volatility in economic growth and inflation, but the productivity performance has been weak and levels of personal debt are worrying. But, despite recent problems, we are a world away from the horrors of the 1970s.
Similarly, any analysis of the Blair record should acknowledge the evidence of improvements in health outcomes and school performance, the reductions in child and pensioner poverty, constitutional reform, Northern Ireland peace etc. Of course, there are blemishes and qualifications. As Mr Blair acknowledges, he was slow to develop a coherent programme for public service reform. And when he did, his political authority was undermined by Iraq. He did not fully capitalise on the big political opportunity that he was given by voters in 1997 and 2001.
But, even if you regard the Blair years as a disappointment, a story of too little too late, the terms of the political debate have been changed. The clearest evidence lies not in the Labour Party, which is, at best, only lukewarm Blairite, but in the Conservative Party. Both the election of David Cameron as party leader 18 months ago and everything that he has done since then are a tribute to Mr Blair. The Tory rebranding and the big-tent approach are a deliberate imitation of the new Labour strategy of the mid1990s.
More significantly, the Tories have largely accepted the fiscal and public service changes introduced since 1997. They are not proposing to reverse the big increases in spending, only to cut the rate of growth, while tax cuts, as opposed to changes in the tax structure, are played down. Similarly, there are no plans to abolish healthcare and schools that are free at the point of use, or state pensions. The main difference is a so far ill-defined Tory preference for a less intrusive and centralised State.
But, just as Blairism built on the economic and industrial relations changes of the Thatcher era, so the Cameron Tory party has so far accepted much of the policy framework of the Blair years. Mr Blair may be widely reviled at present, but his influence will long outlast his departure from office.
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Simply the best PM we have ever had. On the economy, on health, on education, on the fight againt poverty his has done more than any other administration.
I challenge his detractors to name me one other PM who can even come close to his record.
Mark, Bristol,
I admire Tony Blair for sticking to a "no-win" job for a decade, his principles more or less in tact! True, he has made errors of judgement, leading to bad decisions, but who has not done so in their lives ?
We expect too much of figureheads like the PM, or the Monarch. We live with 24 hour media, who tell us what he had for breakfast, what colour toothpaste Cherie is using. They are after all human, like the rest of us. It's "Big Brother" politics and yes he has played up to it, but so does any barrister..........."all the world's a stage......"
Like Thatcher before him, he has often told it as it is. You may not like the message, but it is pointless shooting the messenger all the time.
I wait with interest to see how Government policies and approach will change under Brown and possibly later on, David Cameron. Whatever happens in Government, the vast majority of Times readers will be financially no worse off, but will always have a politician to snipe at!
Philip Harknett, Wimborne, Dorset, England
For 5 years, I have performed in New York and New Orleans as DJ Tony Blair. On this day, I have mixed feelings--satisfaction, regret, admiration, fear. Yet, I will always treasure these last few years, as the PM out-did me at every turn, constantly challenging me to spin like he spun. Godspeed, dear friend
Brian Boyles, New Orleans, USA
Tony Blair will leave some good marks, I have no doubt. But it seems to me that his black marks will form the cross that the UK will have to Blair for years.
The worst, I, and perhaps millions of others in the Commonwealth might agree, is to have jumped into Bush's pocket over what to do with Iraq. The excuse to attack was revealed to all as false and Tony tried to cover up with other reasons for the conflict.
It's far too late to say what he should have done. And now he will allow Prince Harry to become the marked man for the cause that was so seriously marked in the first place.
Does it worry the UK citizens that it may take many generations for their country to be trusted again, all because this leader's decisions were backed in the name of George W Bush.
David Hardy, Paeroa, New Zealand
Of course Blair's legacy will outlast him - he has stuffed the country full of immigrants and broken our historic constitution. These are irreversible changes, although our constitution can be mended (stop Scottish MPs from voting on English only matters) and immigration can be curtailed. God only knows how the House of Lords will end up though. Please Peter Riddell, take a step back and appreciate how damaging the past 10 years have been for the country.
Richard, Worcester, England
In a time of instability, Mr. Blair has exuded a calming presence. This has been particularly evident in contasted to the heavy handed policy of the George W. Bush administration in the Iraq war. The United Kingdom has been fortunate to have Mr. Blair's steady leadership for the past three terms.
Frank Johns, Richmond, VA/USA
Mr R is correct in one thing, that some of the changes wrought by Blair are irreversible, notably his cynical churning in of cheap labour making a fragmented, resentful and fractious society as detailed by the recent Social Trends report. His extreme version of multi culturalism, amounting to apartheid cultures, might be reversible but it may be too late to repair the damage to the sense of one nation with mutual accountability. His reconstruction of the police into a service to enforce political correctness could be reversed and should, so that the objectivity of one law for all is regained as against group rights and privileges being enforced. The judiciary will take some time to reorientate back to intellectual coherence and equity. The Navy...could be reformed given a new management, perhaps under the Army umbrella? Our voting system could be de-corrupted. Oxbridge remain safe in their standards despite interference. The civil service will take decades to depoliticise; Scotland..?
Blackstone, Banbury, UK
Judy, get a sense of perspective. Absolute poverty is defined as not having enough money without wastage or luxuries, and afflicts much of the world. We don't have that. Most people on council estates will smoke, have Sky TV, buy magazines, lots of clothes and shoes (not just what they stand in), own several TVs and a PC etc. We should give more, not less, aid.
Ben, York,
As I approach my 76th birthday and look back over those years I can say for me personally that the best period was during Harold MacMillan's premiership. Without doubt the last ten years have been the worst. This is how I have been affected personally, I leave outside affairs for others to judge. In my opinion Mr Blair, along with Heath and Major have been the worst PM's in my lifetime.
Gordon Perrygrove, Birmingham, England
There are two legacies Blair will leave behind. One for the chattering, political classes who have invested their wealth in property and have the means to move themselves and their cash anywhere in the world. And there is the other legacy - one involving real people facing high house prices, high personal debt, dirty hospitals and closures, increased crime, creaking education system, damaged pension funds, awful tax credits, lingering and deadly Iraq war and demoralised policemen,doctors and nurses,
I am not rich enough to vote Labour !
dave l, Swindon, Wiltshire
Civil liberties, so much at the core of British political and philosophical history, has suffered badly at the hands of big government Blairism.
The anti hunting act, the anti smoking act, some of the anti terrorism measures, as well as increased spending and lack of real reform in the public sector, are all pointing in the direction of a top-heavy, unhealthy public government.
I am therefore looking forward to a new Tory-period, in which I hope the public sector will be trimmed significantly.
William Hagerup, London,
Wrong, sir! The Tory" leadership" may have acquiesced in the wholesale throwing out of some revered institutions and capitulations to various special interest groups, but what used to be referred to as the "core Tory vote" and a not inconsiderable number of intrinsically Labour voters are distinctly uneasy with such changes for changes' sake, as any cursory examination of HYS columns in any number of newspapers will reveal. Blair's legacy will be memorable all right, if only for the break-up of the Union and more power devolved to Brussels.
Archie, Vancouver, Canada
I am surprised Peter Riddell and colleagues are so blinkered.
If following today's elections,Tony Blair is pushed before he wants to go, then his legacy will the the greatest cover-ups of all time.
These include the truth over death of Diana, the truth over the death of Dr. David Kelly, the non-disclosure of the true ID of the WMD that mattered, the ID's of the mystery donors to the UK political parties before year-2000
Michael, Bristol, UK
If Peter Riddell ever visits Planet Earth I will happily greet him and talk him through what has really been happening to Britain under Tony (the Phony) Blair. It certainly is very different to his description viewed from goodness knows what distant place. Just as Britain could not have survived a Labour victory in 1979, I doubt whether it will survive a Labour victory at the next election. Unfortunately it will be opposed at that election by the Blair clone Cameron rather than by a Conservative, so I'm not sure the alternative will be much better. Oh England, my England!!!!!
James Wheeldon, Louth, UK
Iraq is a global disaster. Blair is to blame for it, as much as Bush. Our disappearing civil liberties, all to support the so-called "War On Terrorism (spawned by Bush and Blair) indicate a disaster in the making. Such powers are ALWAYS misused, and have already been.
So the alleged economic and social benefits of this government pale into insignificance with the above. The past decade has been an opportunity for radical reform, thrown away in a welter of nemesis and self-aggrandisation - in short, a disaster.
Jeremy Poynton, Fromeville, 51st State
To Mr. Back, I am unsure of which school your children go to but my physics lessons are clearly defined away from Chemistry and Biology. However, that being said all three flavours of science are sometimes if not most times very closely related so perhaps teaching a blend is more efficient.
Blair has done well but Iraq ruined it for him. Unfortunately really, but perhaps he will be remembered in later years as the man who tried to make it better before the Tories came in and wrecked it again
Mike Laughton, Runcorn, United Kingdom
There are errors of logic and fact here:
- Yes, reputation isn't the same as impact. But performance is different again. Change, except in Blair's 'modernity' obsessed head is'nt always good.
-Who has described the last 10 years as a disaster for the economy (excepting private pensions)? This is a straw man.
- The truth doesn't always lie in the middle of other people's positions. This assumption invite lazy thinking.
- There's been consitutional reform - lots. Whether people feel better represented or government is better scrutinised, is another debate.
- School results? Exam have been dumbed down. One example - the introduction of 'issue-led' GCSE science now to be implemented at AS level. Objective tests, such as York University's, shows falling standards.
- Blair supporters are comforting themselves by saying the Tories have been pulled to the centre. But the Tories are no more left or right wing than back in 1997.
- Poverty down but 'deep' poverty is up.
Tim, London,
One of the notable things about Blair has been his lack of interest in Britain and his obsession with everywhere else. Ireland, Iraq, America. Brown intends to continue this love affair with foreigners, particularly Africa. I presume, as a low paid worker, that Africa is where my tax increase will be going. We need a leader who is concerned about our citizens first and someone who will prioritise the English instead of Scotland, Wales and Ireland. This article is nonsense, Blair hasn't just 'let us down' he has enabled a complete breakdown of a system that worked perfectly well. We haven't even started to see the effects yet. Put the economy and the individual under pressure and let's see how well Blair did.
judy, Liverpool, england
Finally - someone prepared to defend Blair. He has done, generally, very well.
Ben, York,
Peter Riddell, coming from a privileged background, is quite unable to appreciate the depths to which educational standards have fallen. In the state sector GCSE Physics and Chemistry are no longer taught as separate subjects but as a blend of Blue-Peter popular science. In Mathematics 16% will get you a grade C. Many universities are having to close Physics and Chemistry departments and for the rest the majority of their able students are now imports from India or the Far East.
Blair's boasts,which Peter Riddell accepts at face value, are a travesty of the truth. Gangs and drugs are the experience of many inner-city comprehensives and if Peter thinks that you can impart mathematical theorems or study Milton in such an environment he is living on another planet.
Anthony Back, Wellington, Telford, England
Blair was a highly effective Prime Minister, and under him Britain has become a leader in the world again. The economy has performed brilliant, and much money now spent on public services (maybe too much now!)
I think Cameron is thebest, next natural choice
Wolfgang Schmidt, Berlin, Germany
Say what you like about Mr. Blair but in Ireland he will always be hugely respected for the enormous amount of work that he has done to bring peace to the island.
That he would appear to have received little credit for this at home only adds to the high esteem in which he is held by his Irish neighbours.
David, Tipperary, Ireland
And the winner is:......John Major's article "A decade of Spin and Error". It's instructive that the best thing the author can find to say about a decade of Labour government is that they didn't make quite such a mess as they made last time during the 1970s!
Hrothgar, Schaumburg, IL, USA
I would just like to pick Peter Riddell up on the topic of constitutional reform, since I for one can see nothing positive in what has been done. Constitutional reform should not be undertaken lightly, it should be as far as possible cross party and consensual, and should involve detailed groundwork before being implemented. Under Blair, we have had devolution which has disadvantaged and marginalised England and which will probably lead to the break up of the UK, we have had a botched attempt at House of Lords reform which has currently resulted in a fully appointed crony chamber, with no clear idea of the way forward (and which has indirectly lead to the cash for honours scandal) and we had the infamous attempt to get rid of the historic post of Lord Chancellor in a botched reshuffle.
So, just what has been achieved in constitutional reform, apart from a series of half baked, damaging outcomes?
Richard, Kidderminster, England
peter which figures are you reading .
the uk's public want fair taxes if we cant afford it well we will]
tighten our belts ,but if we keep allowing labour to rule
the next tax rule will be you give us everything and we
might give you something back even Fagin had better
policies
george william taylor, hull, uk
Having only recently arrived in the UK, and hence only been watching Blair from Australia, I think Peter has provided an objective overview of the Blair years. I think a lot of people commenting on him are too close to the situation, and I believe that in 10 years time, we'll start to see some of the permanency of his reforms being taken for granted, just as we take the reforms of Thatcher for granted.
David, London,
Peter, you sound like a spokesman for Blair. Are you?
Josh, Tel-Aviv,
Peter Riddell is ridiculous, he is obviously trying to take the opposing view to make himself seem more perceptive than the masses. Tomorrow will show what the masses think and history will show what a transgressor of the truth is Blair and this ridiculous political briefing.
peter whale, montpon, france
You are having a laugh ... Right?
Ben, London,