Angus Macleod, Scottish Political Editor
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With 24 hours until voters go to the polls in Scotland, the Nationalists are still clinging to a lead over Labour, The Times’s latest opinion poll shows – but the gap is narrowing.
The Populus poll points to the probability of devolved Scotland being governed by either an SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition or a third consecutive Labour-Liberal Democrat partnership, with Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, as the potential “kingmaker”.
The survey suggests that the recent pro-Union barrage by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, portraying the Nationalists as having a “tax and turmoil” wrecking agenda if they win, has had only limited success.
However, with about one in ten voters still undecided, the poll will also induce some nervousness within the SNP. Another poll, by ICM for The Guardian and The Scotsman, also shows that the SNP lead over Labour has shrunk and has Labour winning the most seats.
But, according to Populus, the Nationalists are still on course to become the largest party in Scotland’s Parliament with Alex Salmond favourite to become First Minister and able to prepare the ground for a referendum on Scottish separation in 2010.
Other findings by Populus indicate that support for outright independence has slipped again among Scots – down one point from 22 per cent 12 days ago to 21 per cent now.
On voting intentions, the poll gives the SNP 33 per cent support on the constituency vote, down one percentage point since mid-April, with Labour on 29 per cent, also down one. The Liberal Democrats are on 15 per cent in the constituency section, down three, and the Conservatives are flatlining on 13 per cent. The number of respondents saying that they will use their constituency vote for other parties has gone up four percentage points to 10.
The poll suggests that the Nationalists would have 45 seats, one fewer than Populus gave them 12 days ago and Labour would be just behind on 43, one more than 12 days ago.
The Liberal Democrats would have 23 seats, the same estimate as in mid-April, and the Conservatives would have 17, again the same as 12 days ago. The Greens would have one MSP and the other parties and independents none.

Signs of a late surge in nationalist support in Wales have forced Labour to rethink its election strategy.
Rhodri Morgan, the Labour First Minister, switched tactics to concentrate on attacking Plaid Cymru in the final days after two polls picked up big swings to the nationalists.
The most detailed poll, by ITV Wales, puts Labour down 4 points on 32 per cent, Plaid up 6 on 20 per cent, the Tories down 4 on 19 per cent and the Lib Dems steady on 15 per cent.
The poll projected that, in the 60-member Welsh Assembly, Labour would have 25 seats (down 4), Plaid Cymru 15 (up 3), the Conservatives 10 (down 1) and the Lib Dems 8 (up 2).

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This is a new step in History as the small nations get freer.
Samuel, Montréal, Québec
To borrow from George Bernard Shaw: Two countries divided by a common government. I mean really common.
Mike Armstrong, Macau, China
Go on Scotland you can do it....vote SNP!
Peter, Auckland, NZ,
SNP should never be allowed any sort of power! They will destroy Scotland more so than any other party. They will destroy Britains unity.
Victoria Logan, Glasgow/Dundee, Scotland
This election is a once in a generation chance. If the people of Scotland deliver for the SNP, then the SNP will deliver for the people of Scotland. It's time to end London Labour rule.
Rosalyn Harkness, Edinburgh, Scotland
Rob, Munich is looking forward to another Lab/Lib coallition...perhaps if he lived in Scotland he would realise that they have done Scotland a great disservice over the past years and our only hope lies with a new, ambitious SNP Government...It's Time for the SNP...
David Balfour, Oban,
One thing can be said about McConnell and New Labour in general, they are at least facing up to the reality of their position in the political spectrum. In calling for Tory support they are making it quite clear, they are just another Conservative Party.
Red Tower, Dunoon,
What the SNP needs to do is to enlighten the English taxpayers as to how much he will save if he stops paying out for defence, education and health in Scotland. Once that is clear, complete independence for Scotland will be within easy reach.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
This poll seems slightly odd in predicting a 4% increase in votes for others in the constituency vote. Could it be possible that there has been some confusion in the telephone polling between the first and second votes which have been seitched this year.
Frankly if only one MSP from outside the big four gets in (as this poll seems to be suggesting) I will eat my own hat and those of my friends and family.
Nicol Stephen's anti-democratic stance seems to be back-firing. Propping up labour would be political suicide for the lib-dems.
Denis, Glasgow, Scotland
Angus, your political views shine out like a beacon, and I would defend to the death, your right to express them.
I don't wish to be churlish ,but I hope you are proved wrong on 3/5/07.
Look forward to hearing you on Saturday on G.M. Scotland
James Murray, Tain, Scotland
Why have neither Populus nor ICM published their polls online? Populus always did before - what's different this time? Polls only show trends and unless you can compare the methodology and weighting with earlier polls then they really are meaningless.
Excuse me for finding this a bit suspicious?
Matthew Egan, Edinburgh,
Blair and Brown accuse the Nationalists of having a 'tax and turmoil' agenda? Priceless!
David, Oxford,
Can't stand the thought of a Lib - Lab coalition, it just demonstrates how bad they both are. The SNP are the only option to rid Labour from the land. Long live William Wallace!!!
Longshanks, Glasgow,
I wouldn't rule out John Major -- I mean, Jack McConnell scraping in with the largest number of seats on Friday.
Angus McIonnach, Edinburgh,
Labour is winning NO arguments here! They are (as usual) using fear tactics to maintain the support that they do NOT deserve. Some things never change!
Alan F, Edinburgh, Scotland
I think this is hot air as usual, the real poll that counts is the one tomorrow.
The SNP will wipe the floor with the Labour Party and to be honest, they deserve it.
Hamish McCleod, Edinburgh,
If the Lib Dems can avoid being in bed with Labour, they will. Too many of their previous MSPs will not thole another session with McConnel and his gang.
But if there any reward, however small, for the relentlessly negative campaign fought by Labour, democracy is doomed.
The good news is that I simply don't accept - on the street, in the pubs, in the community centres - that previous Labour voters are going out to vote. They ain't.
The only fly in the ointment is that the SNP's efforts to sign up supporters for postal votes have been severly stymied by the fiasco over the printing of the ballot papers. This will reduce turnout and eat into their vote.
That's why the superior efforts of the SNP on polling day have to become almost super-human tomorrow.
Gordon Kirk, Burntisland,
Actually, Labour is on the up. The polls clearly show this. This will continue and Labour will remain the largest party after thursday in my opinion. I am looking forward to another Labour-Liberal Democrat government in Holyrood.
Rob, Munich,
Looking forward to reading Angus MacLeod's words on Friday. Labour are melting.
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
It seems Labour's X Factor is the Fear Factor and it's just possible it is starting to kick in. I hope not. It looks clear to me that Brown will not be a popular prime minister with the English electorate. This means that Scotland will face another four years of Jack McConnell and the crippling centralism of a Labour party suffering from siege mentality. Follow this with two years of Jack against David Cameron. It doesn't bear thinking about. Scotland is stronger with Alex Salmond. It's time to ge the vote out.
Gregor Addison, Glasgow, Scotland