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The break-up of Britain is on the cards, although it still does not have to happen. The Scottish election on Thursday was so closely fought and brought such a tight result that the formation of a Scottish National party government in Edinburgh is not yet a cast-iron certainty. But it is the most likely outcome; then one part of the UK will be ruled by politicians hostile to its existence.
There has been nothing like this since Sinn Fein took a majority of Irish seats in the general election of 1918. Effective independence for the 26 counties followed within a few years, despite all the British did to stop it. Do Gordon Brown or David Cameron have any better ideas for saving the UK than Lloyd George or Churchill?
Of course the situation today is different. Scotland has no long history of oppression and misery, no desire for violence or armed resistance to Westminster’s authority. While the development of Scottish nationalism has been more subterranean and subtle than that of Irish nationalism, it now looks just as difficult to deal with, let alone defeat.
In fact Scottish nationalism has not had to revive because it never really died. This week marked the 300th anniversary of the Treaty of Union between England and Scotland in 1707. Treaty is the right word (rather than Act of Union) because it struck a bargain between two sovereign nations, even if one was big and strong, the other small and weak.
The bargain was that the Scots should be left to their own devices in what they most valued about themselves (church, law and education) while being free to play their part in the union and the empire. So a Scottish society in many ways separate survived, even while it gave a wider loyalty to Britain.
The empire has gone now, so the union no longer has the value it once had. Then, in the late 20th century, the British state seized more power for itself, controlling personal lives and local communities to an extent that would have appalled earlier generations.
Because the British state is bound to be more English than anything else, that meant imposing English norms on Scotland. They did not always solve the problems they were meant to solve – for example, an economy in freefall as the coal, steel and shipbuilding industries closed down. A nationalist reaction followed.
In 1967 the SNP started its first durable upswing when Winifred Ewing won a by-election at Hamilton. At the two general elections of 1974, the SNP won seven, then 11 seats. It has never disappeared from Westminster.
Margaret Thatcher refused to make any concessions to Scotland, which helped Labour to decide it would. If its base there of 40 or 50 parliamentary seats had been eroded, it might have sunk without trace during the 18 barren years of opposition.
After Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997, he set up a Scottish parliament. Gordon Brown and the other Scots in his cabinet told him this would kill off nationalism. They were wrong.
The Scottish parliament is too obviously a sop, just a sop, to nationalism. It has no real economic powers, yet the economy remains Scotland’s fundamental problem, with growth rates consistently behind English ones. Revenue from North Sea oil bypasses Scotland and goes straight to the Treasury in London.
Having no powers that count, the Scottish parliament has frittered away its energies on political correctness, on banning a selection of its dislikes from hunting to smoking, and on lecturing Scots about getting drunk and having fights. Perhaps this is worthy, but it is not why Scots voted to bring back their parliament.
Meanwhile there has come a backlash from England. According to one recent poll, a majority of the English think the two nations should go their separate ways.
This is the situation into which the SNP’s electoral victory has, like a meteorite into the ocean, smashed.
It gives no sign of willingness on the part of Scots to back down on demands for a better deal. Nor is it being met with a friendlier reception in England, where Brown, if he b e c o m e s prime minister, is threatening to have no truck with Alex Salmond, if he becomes first minister.
For the union to be saved, something more is needed. Salmond, of course, does not want to save the union. But his party has only 47 seats out of 129 in the Scottish parliament and the other parties will be looking for some way not to be dragged along by his headlong rush for independence.
This problem cannot be solved by Scots alone. The English have to start thinking about what they get out of the union, or what they want to get. There is among them too much arrogant assumption that English norms are British norms, that the smaller nations of the UK amount to little more than picturesque curiosities.
Hence Brown’s unconvincing struggles to define what Britishness is. He finds it hard to distinguish from Englishness – and this may reflect the fact of the matter. When he said his greatest sporting moment was watching Gazza score, he only annoyed the Scots without impressing the English.
If no reconciliation can be arranged, perhaps divorce is the best thing, on terms as good as we can manage.
The Irish and the English separated 80 years ago, yet their relationship has matured into an equality of regard and esteem.
That seems a far better outcome than the steady loss of liking we see between the English and the Scots, soon perhaps to be raised to a political crisis.
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the sheer arogance off the english througout history if anyone cares to read it has been to suppress and steal by whatever means be it violence or treatys the out come has beenth i was a soldier in two of thies colonies and was told that the only wat to let them know that they were not wanted was to hold them by the hair and keep kicking him in the face until he let go and if we cast our minds to malaya palastine aden cyprus and this piece of paper is not big enough even our gallant allies the good old U.S.A. gave us the same message and who benefited the rich got richer and the poor of all parts of the U.K. supplied the soldiers while money is whate it is all about certainly not for the poor or less well off and the same stands today the scots were told by sucessive government that north sea oil was a flash in the pan and would not sustain well here we are forty years on gazing across the north sea to wealthy norway
john gallagher scotland ex 1st bn the argyll &sutherland highlander
john gallagher, inverness, scotland
The Scottish historian Michael Fry, whose book entitled "The Scottish Empire" I possess, informs us that "It is up to the English to save the Union". I have one simple question. Why? Why should the people of Enngland be sacrificed on the altar of unionism? Why should we continue to support and subsidise those that use and abuse us? What benefit has the union ever been to us apart from preventing Scotland knifing us in the back at the behest of the French?
Scilla Cullen, Hitchin, England
The Union is far from dead but I do think that with the advent of devolution across the UK we need to re-vist the structures of the UK and consider a federal system across the "Isles" rather than the current system, possibly including the Republic of Ireland. We already have the "council of the Isles" established under the Good Friday Agreement which has representatives from the Irish Dail, Northern Ireland Assembly, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, Manx Tynwald, Westminster and the Channel Isles reps.
Alan, Cookstown,
Hopefully the English know which side their bread is buttered and welcome our new 'foreigners' at the border with their passports.
judy, Liverpool, england
Perhaps, as you suggest, the main stumbling block for an SNP / Lib. Dem. coalition could be removed by the promise of a referendum on fiscal independence in the first instance. What commentators don't often take into account is the fact that referenda may contain more than one question, allowing for an escalating list of proposals. An acceptable referendum paper may read:
- Do you want the Scottish Parliament to have full fiscal autonomy?
- Do you want the Scottish Parliament to assume responsibility for defense policy?
- Do you want the Scottish Parliament to assume responsibility for foreign policy?
- Do you want the Scottish Parliament to assume responsibility for social security?
- Do you want Scotland to become independent from the United Kingdom?
I find it strange that any party should be against the notion of a referendum on any issue - in a democracy power should always ultimately reside with the electorate.
Stuart Harris-Logan, Glasgow, Scotland
What a sad country (UK) we have become, by any measure we are rich, successful, tolerant and have had a huge and positive influence on the world and yet so many are bitter, cynical and divisive and want to break it all up over petty squabbles
Adrian, London,
The Union is dying........it is obsolete and just of historical interest.
People in England are awakening to Nationalism..... just as the Scots and Welsh have done before them. This English awareness is a direct result of asymmetric devolution... The English have been disadvantaged by devolution balls-up.
If constitutional parity and fairness is the "reward" for the break up of the Union then I for one am prepared for the consequences.
Robin Parsons
Robin Parsons, Dorchester, England
The union is a shackle used to hobble England and deny her an identity. It is but an instrument of it's bigger brother in Brussels ,a tool to destroy an enemy that has defied them for centuries.
Go Europe, go Scotland, Wales and N Ireland, just get on with destroying yourselves and leave us to regain our beloved Country.
Fred Forsythe (not the), Worc's, England
Someone should remind the British people that goverment is getting more expensive every year and that sometimes less is more.
Michael S. Stumm, Battle Creek, MI, US
It is sad to see a country like the United Kingdom being divided by the European Union. But that is what is happening. The new economics has seen a re-born Ireland who will never regret her freedom from England. Nor would Scotland supported by an economic interest of Germany,opposed, as it is, to the little island off to the left.I worry about the ongoing issues of security and financial independence that must arise in any clear thinking head considering the separation of two such little countries. It makes me think - What would we do if New Zealand were attacked. Ofcourse we would go to the defence of fellow ANZACS. So England would do if Scotland were attacked. But Ireland, to its everlasting shame did not support England in its hard times during the war against Hitler. What would a new independent Scotland do?But the real question for us Australians - How will it affect your sport?
Peter Gsallagher, Brisbane, Australia
Your report choose to ignore that a BBC Wales survey last week, identified that we here in Wales are more supportive to the Welsh Assembly and are keen to see it developing to a proper and full legislative Parliament (Senedd).
Incidentally, England does have its own Parliament already - its located at Westminster (House of Commons)!
Gerallt Huws, Talsarnau, Cymru (Wales)
"It's up to the English to save the Union" why would the English want to save a nation who has cried ,Freedom for years ,no begone with them ,and begone being called "British"we are the English,"and have not spoken yet"
E.Justice, gateshead, England
It is so interesting to view comments from English people, who have no concept of their own history, independence for England indeed. The english never stopped having their independence at any time for any nation, nor would they have formed any kind of union unless it benefited them somehow. I am not a rabid patriot of Scotland I am a patriot and I did vote SNP for one reason only, and not for the break up of the union but to bring democracy to Scotland and to not live in a one party state, namely Blair and Brown land and I think you will find that most Scots have similar feelings. What's wrong with good opposition, more especially when it is defending and protecting the folk who voted for them without affiliations to party politics with interests and loyalties based outside of the country.
Karen McLeod, Glasgow, Scotland
If we are talking break up of the UK why don't we go the whole hog and ask what we get from keeping, say, Cornwall or Somerset or any other County that isn't as dynamic economically as the South East. Why don't we just declare UDI in the South and cast the rest adrift?
Reason; there is more to life and any national debate than JUST ECONOMICS. We are all stronger and richer culturaly as a whole.
John Lewis, London, UK
England is the only country in the Union which has no say over its own affairs. It is time we had our own Parliament, and stopped subsidising Scottish Universities and Welsh NHS prescriptions to name but two benefits the English provide.
M.Stringfellow, Sherborne , England
I have never heard such drivel in all my life.
Firstly give me even ONE good reason to retain the Union and what possible advantage could it have for England? The usual excuses are sentimental and grasping.
Scotland is a country in its own right. It has been propped up by England for far too long and been seduced into a state sponsored stupour of inactivity and dependence by the Labour party who use state dependency to keep itself in power.
Scotland could be a vibrant proud nation, yet has pockets of deprivation and state employment similar to some of the poorest ex Soviet Republics.
It is no business of the British State to deny the people a vote on independence. If that is what the people of Scotland want let them have it.
England would be much better not playing Lady bountiful with the last remaining charges. Let Scotland stand on her own two feet and let England spend the billions from the Barnett Formula sorting herself out. England demands
her voice NOW!
Christine Constable, Norwich, England
As a Historian here is your chance to see a essentially British (so we are told) Revolution.
Of course we should part.The EU has changed everything.
The Oil is irrelevant. Scotland we be a `net receiver` under EU rules. Alex Salmon has already worked that out.
The real tragedy (and story) is that the EU is utterly destroying the Parliament at Westminser.
That is what you Historians should be concentrating on.
Peter Bolt, Redditch, UK
Why would we want to save a union that has long passed it sell by date?. The so called union is now lopsided and unfair financially, politically and democtratically to the people of England.
Despite the bias in many parts that tries to keep the union afloat (the BBC, all the main political parties), many people south of the border are asking "hang on, what are we getting out of this now?" And I have to agree with them; what are WE, England, now getting out of the Union?.
Time to call it a day, have a decent and fair divorce. We can still be friends, indeed better friends. We will play sport, we will visit each other, we will get along just fine.
Stop the bickering, let's call it a day.
Neil Cunniffe, Rugby, England
Oh, please! This is the sort of 'Little England' polemics that would certainly doom the Union. If England (and Wales) believes for one moment that this Union has not been of benefit, then the Union is destined to die. However, history has more than amply illustrated the benefit for us all in this relationship - never has the British Isles experienced such peace and prosperity. British (and thereby English) dominance from Industrialisation onwards owes, in large part, its successes to the innate genius and contributions of the Scots.
The British Empire was largely built on the backbones of Scottish diligence; HSBC was founded by a Scot; as was The Economist and The Encyclopaedia Britannica. What is more, some of the better aspects of our Armed Forces are Scottish. Scotland's contribution has been as mutually beneficial for England as it has for Scotland, and we would be well advised to remember that, rather than to fall prey to such idle ideas of our own nationalist tendencies.
Tim Palmer, Leicester,
I'm English and I say, "To hell with the Union. English Independence now!!"
There will be few tears shed in this country at the loss of the celtic fringes. We've had enough of paying them to whinge and stab us in the back. they can clear off themselves or they'll be kicked out.
Carol Banks, carlisle, England