ALEX Salmond will tell the Liberal Democrats this week that he is prepared to establish a commission to examine Scotland’s constitutional future as the price of forming a coalition.

The SNP leader is said to be ready to offer the concession in return for the stability of a formal pact after the Liberals said they would not agree to a referendum on independence.

It would involve setting up a body of senior public figures and politicians – similar to the Constitutional Convention that established the ground rules for devolution – to examine the relative merits of independence versus greater powers for the Scottish parliament, or the status quo.

Neither party would be bound by the recommendations of the commission. It would be expected to report in time to allow for the introduction of possible legislation on a referendum before the end of the parliamentary term.

While the Liberal Democrats have categorically ruled out agreeing to a referendum, consenting to the establishment of a commission would allow them to work with the SNP while claiming to have stood by their principles.

Nicol Stephen, leader of the Scottish Lib Dems, is known to want to find a compromise on the country’s constitutional future to deliver stable government.

But it is being strongly resisted by his deputy, Tavish Scott, who believes the party should allow the nationalists to govern as a minority administration.

Stephen is also facing pressure from the grassroots of his party to resist the overtures of the SNP. A straw poll of local party chairmen by The Sunday Times found that 16 were against any deal with the nationalists unless they dropped their commitment to a referendum, compared with 12 in favour of a coalition pact.

Gordon Brown, the Labour chancellor, has signalled to Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, that he would look more favourably on a formal deal between the two parties at a UK level if they refuse to deal with the SNP.

Sources close to Brown yesterday accused Salmond of “arrogance” for assuming that he would be given a clear run at forming a ruling administration at Holyrood.

“Given the circumstances of the election and the fact that a clear majority of Scots voted against the SNP, plans for independence should be binned,” said one. “Alex Salmond is hardly in a position to be making demands on anyone. It is the height of arrogance for him to make such demands in this way.”

Sources close to Brown said he would not even contemplate meeting Salmond until the ruling coalition was finalised and the chancellor has taken over as prime minister.

Yesterday Jack McConnell, the defeated Labour leader, told his depleted group of MSPs there was still a chance of keeping the SNP out of power.

While many Labour MSPs believe the party performed better than expected, McConnell is still expected to be ousted, replaced by either Tom McCabe, his former finance minister, Wendy Alexander, his former enterprise minister, or Andy Kerr, his former health minister.

Salmond’s allies say he is prepared to show “generosity of spirit” in his talks with Stephen this week and that he accepts he has to build support for his plans carefully, given the closeness of the vote.

“There is a mood for change but we have to be generous to those who haven’t done as well as we have. The arithmetic is pretty compelling so we will have to be careful how we proceed,” said one.

The SNP leader believes he will also have to form a rainbow alliance with the Greens’ two MSPs to help get his programme for government through parliament. They are unlikely to join a coalition but will agree not to vote against Salmond in a confidence motion brought by Labour in exchange for concessions on environmental policies.

Meanwhile, David Cameron would win a general election by 54 seats, based on voting patterns in last week’s local elections, according to a study published this weekend by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, directors of Plymouth University’s elections centre.

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