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Gordon Brown’s campaign for the Labour leadership gains an early boost this morning from a Times poll showing that he is seen as a better and stronger leader than David Cameron.
The Populus poll, undertaken over the weekend, indicates that Labour support is up by four points since mid-April to 33 per cent, while the Conservatives are unchanged on 37 per cent, despite their big gains in the local elections on May 3. The Liberal Democrats have dropped by three points to 17 per cent, with others down one point at 13 per cent.
The poll was taken as the Brown campaign was launched. More voters think that things will get better rather than worse under Mr Brown than Tony Blair, especially on Iraq, standards in schools, the health service, standards in public life and tackling crime. But nearly half the public, 47 per cent, think that taxation levels will get worse.
Mr Brown, who was still waiting last night to see whether he would face a challenge from the Left, will announce today a review of numeracy teaching in schools and plans aimed at bringing British standards up to the rest of the world. In a speech to the CBI he will say that it is unacceptable that 150,000 children a year are leaving school who are not numerate.
Last night Labour leftwingers were pleading for support to ensure a contest against Mr Brown. Michael Meacher accepted that he had fewer backers than John Mc-Donnell, the other leftwing contender, and stood aside. But it appeared that together they had fallen short of the 44 MPs required to force a challenge. Leftwing MPs were also talking to deputy leadership candidates to trade support to put Mr Mc-Donnell over the threshold.
The poll shows that the Tories under Mr Cameron still come out well on a hypothetical match-up with Labour led by Mr Brown, on 42 to 32 per cent, against 41 to 30 per cent a month ago. However, when voters are asked to rate leaders on a 0 to 10 scale, Mr Brown is slightly ahead of Mr Cameron, on 5.00, against 4.95. Voters are giving Mr Blair a warm send-off – his rating has jumped from 4.69 to 5.22 since January.
Moreover, Mr Brown also comes out well ahead of Mr Cameron when voters are asked which leader is strong, by 34 to 19 per cent. But the Conservative leader is well ahead on charisma, by 28 to 9 per cent, with Mr Blair top on 31 per cent. Mr Cameron also leads Mr Brown on caring about the problems of ordinary people, likeability and being in touch with modern Britain. The two tie on having what it takes to be a good prime minister.
More voters think that things will get better rather than worse compared with the Blair years on five out of eight policy measures, but in each case a half or more think that there will be no change at all.
Nearly a third, 31 per cent, think standards in schools will get better, and 12 per cent worse. The balance is 27 to 17 per cent in favour of better on Iraq, 29 to 18 per cent on the NHS, 24 to 18 per cent on standards in public life, and 27 to 16 per cent on tackling crime and antisocial behaviour. Nearly a quarter think that the economy will get worse, and a fifth better. A fifth think relations with America will get worse.
Mr Brown’s CBI speech is the latest in a blitz of new policy announcements by the Chancellor since he began his campaign last Friday. In what opponents will claim amounts to a critique of the Blair years, Mr Brown will announce extra funding to provide one-on-one numeracy training for 300,000 struggling children by 2010.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,504 adults aged over 18 by telephone on May 11-13. Interviews were conducted across the country. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council. For more details go to www.populuslimited.com
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