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Gordon Brown’s campaign for the Labour leadership gains an early boost this morning from a Times poll showing that he is seen as a better and stronger leader than David Cameron.
The Populus poll, undertaken over the weekend, indicates that Labour support is up by four points since mid-April to 33 per cent, while the Conservatives are unchanged on 37 per cent, despite their big gains in the local elections on May 3. The Liberal Democrats have dropped by three points to 17 per cent, with others down one point at 13 per cent.
The poll was taken as the Brown campaign was launched. More voters think that things will get better rather than worse under Mr Brown than Tony Blair, especially on Iraq, standards in schools, the health service, standards in public life and tackling crime. But nearly half the public, 47 per cent, think that taxation levels will get worse.
Mr Brown, who was still waiting last night to see whether he would face a challenge from the Left, will announce today a review of numeracy teaching in schools and plans aimed at bringing British standards up to the rest of the world. In a speech to the CBI he will say that it is unacceptable that 150,000 children a year are leaving school who are not numerate.
Last night Labour leftwingers were pleading for support to ensure a contest against Mr Brown. Michael Meacher accepted that he had fewer backers than John Mc-Donnell, the other leftwing contender, and stood aside. But it appeared that together they had fallen short of the 44 MPs required to force a challenge. Leftwing MPs were also talking to deputy leadership candidates to trade support to put Mr Mc-Donnell over the threshold.
The poll shows that the Tories under Mr Cameron still come out well on a hypothetical match-up with Labour led by Mr Brown, on 42 to 32 per cent, against 41 to 30 per cent a month ago. However, when voters are asked to rate leaders on a 0 to 10 scale, Mr Brown is slightly ahead of Mr Cameron, on 5.00, against 4.95. Voters are giving Mr Blair a warm send-off – his rating has jumped from 4.69 to 5.22 since January.
Moreover, Mr Brown also comes out well ahead of Mr Cameron when voters are asked which leader is strong, by 34 to 19 per cent. But the Conservative leader is well ahead on charisma, by 28 to 9 per cent, with Mr Blair top on 31 per cent. Mr Cameron also leads Mr Brown on caring about the problems of ordinary people, likeability and being in touch with modern Britain. The two tie on having what it takes to be a good prime minister.
More voters think that things will get better rather than worse compared with the Blair years on five out of eight policy measures, but in each case a half or more think that there will be no change at all.
Nearly a third, 31 per cent, think standards in schools will get better, and 12 per cent worse. The balance is 27 to 17 per cent in favour of better on Iraq, 29 to 18 per cent on the NHS, 24 to 18 per cent on standards in public life, and 27 to 16 per cent on tackling crime and antisocial behaviour. Nearly a quarter think that the economy will get worse, and a fifth better. A fifth think relations with America will get worse.
Mr Brown’s CBI speech is the latest in a blitz of new policy announcements by the Chancellor since he began his campaign last Friday. In what opponents will claim amounts to a critique of the Blair years, Mr Brown will announce extra funding to provide one-on-one numeracy training for 300,000 struggling children by 2010.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,504 adults aged over 18 by telephone on May 11-13. Interviews were conducted across the country. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council. For more details go to www.populuslimited.com
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Gordon Brown says he is against the culture of celebrity' !
Doesn't stop him spending a week trying to look like one !
Great work from your PR and spin team, Mr Brown - paid off dividends against your opponents inside and outside the Labour Party. All those juicy headlines !
Charlie Whelan will be proud of you !
David, Swndon, Wiltshire
The political pundits would often let slip that Brown was actually a nicer guy than the image portrayed in the media. It is not surprising that his popularity is increasing now that he's out there in front of the camera.
At first I liked Cameron but now he just reminds me of a used car salesman. It seems that the total sum of his beliefs is what do have have do and say to get elected - maybe that's democrarcy but I think a leader needs real beliefs. That's where Brown has the edge.
PAM, Maidenhead, UK
Some of the people who post comments must have been living in a different country to me over the past ten years!! They say things haven't got better under Labour.
Well try the following as a small example of the good that Labour has achieved: sustained economic stability, the minimum wage, minimum income guarantee for the elderly, almost full employment, tax credits, record number of police officers, record numbers of doctors, record number of nurses, record investment in education, record investment in the NHS, devolution for Scotland & Wales, peace in Northern Ireland, record number of university graduates.
Sure there have been a few mistakes but in ten years there are bound to be. Get a grip for crying out out loud - you are far better off now than you ever were under Thatcher!!
Paul Williams, Bangor, Gwynedd
So Gordon Brown is touring the country, on a desperate charm offensive, trying to disassociate himself from Blair's 'legacy' and claiming he will right all the wrongs which he himself was party to !
Discerning voters will be well aware that Brown's fingerprints are all over the policies of the last ten years: the billions raided from Pension Funds, the introduction of top-up fees, over 100 new taxes, a disastrous, illegal war in Iraq,
If this is a bounce, then it ought to be a dead Macavity cat bounce !
Rick, London, England
I think you are forgetting that Brown has been part of the Blair governement and part of the execution - its time we people of Britain vote!I Elections!!
sytha, london,
Dream on MR BROWN enough is enough the British
subjects are not stupid its time to change ,the polls
at the local elections proved that .THERE ARE NO MAGIC
POTIONS IN POLITICS JUST HARD FACTS.
george william taylor, HULL, UK
It is quite amazing how some people are fooled! Had David Davies become leader of the Tory Party then the Labour government may have had something to be concerned about. Instead the conservatives were seduced by a slick old Etonian salesman who skillfully avoided articulating anything of substance.
The rebound in Labour support was inevitable and the 4% difference in the polls is not statistically significant, especially in the mid-term of a parliament.
I wonder if the conservatives have given any thought as to who they will elect as their next leader?
Donovan Wright, Reading, Berkshire
It's quite a stretch to interpret these results as anything other than a dead cat bounce. Brown Labour v Cameron Tories at 32 to 42 respectively means Labour are up one point since a month ago. This is well within the measurement noise, i.e. a statistical no-change.
The more subsidiary stats, e.g. who is the stronger leader, are subject to even greater noise as people's knowledge of the question diminishes. That is, most people know how they are going to vote but fewer know who is a better 'leader' out of Cameron and Blair. This explains the apparently contradictory answers and offers cold comfort to Labour.
Brownites have previously dismissed the 'Labour led by Brown' v the Tories question as too hypothetical, when explaining the difference in voting intentions. That defence is getting shakier by the day.
Scary, Sheffield, S. Yorks
I wouldn't be concerned about C4 Dispatches. The whole program was biased against Labour, by Tory toff and right wing journalist Peter Oborne. Brown has the stature, integrity and leadership to be a brilliant Prime Minister.
Gary Stewart, Clydebank, Scotland
What strikes me about Brown is how naff he is at retail politics.
Droning on, ignoring the question, regurgitating statistics - all politicians do this, but the succesful ones also have a certain X factor (call it charisma, or passion or whatever).
I think that Brown's been holed up in the impreganble fortress of the treasury for too long. He hasn't needed to charm or persuade for so long his ability to do so has atrophied.
Compare and contrast with the Tories, who've been hardened by ten years inn the wilderness.
Bob, Liverpool, UK
As for C4's Dispatches all I can say about that is if you have no education you could easily be fooled into thinking that it was an accurate show full of facts rather than the biased bottom gravy that it actually was. Brown achieved amongst other things record low unemployment, constant growth for 10 years during periods of recession in Europe, the US and Japan (according to dispatches that never happened) That show was a joke, if you do not see that you should not be allowed to vote, you obviously have no idea what youre voting for. The show had the veneer of being professional and accurate but when you know the facts you can see how biased and basically misleading it was against him.
Craig, South Yorkshire, England
Wow, nice bit of spinning the news for Brown!
Fact: Populus poll for Times shows current support for Blair-led Labour as 33% against Cameron-led Tories on 37%.
Fact: Populus poll for Times shows hypothetical Brown-led Labour on 32% against Cameron-led Tories on 42%.
Bounce for Brown? More like an unfortunate splat!
Euan, Edinburgh, UK
Well Brown's got a good head on his shoulders, a brain, just what PMs need these days. - Much better than charisma which is just a load of learned techniques, and after all why is Cameron modelling himself on someone thats just on the way out ?
Ian, York, England
Over the years it seems that the greater exposure politicians have, the less they are liked by the general public. Gordon Brown has already had a great deal of exposure, especially in the last three years: Cameron will get increasing time in the spotlight as we get nearer the next election, and as his policies come under greater scrutiny he is likely to become less popular. Whether Brown can take advantage of that remains to be seen. Brown doesn't have Blair's charisma but he seems a very astute politician, and will ruthlessly expose any chinks in the Cameron armour.
Chris Kendrick, Bristol, UK
It is of value that the country gets a good sighting of Gordon Brown before the next election. A year or two will suffice to show this man for what he is. At least when the election comes along we will be better armed than we were ten years ago.
When the moment comes we will have the choice of a shot in the dark or a shot for the dark.
Alan, Llanerchymedd, Wales
The boost in Labour's and Blair's ratings is clearly due to the fact that Blair's departure has given Labour the opportunity to at last present a true account of their record over the last ten years. Makes you wonder where Labour would have been if the media had given them this opportunity throughout their period of office.
Stan Rosenthal, Lindfield, West Sussex
I just can't understand how the Tories have not been able to mount a credible opposition to this man after all he has done. Brown has singlehandedly ensured that we will all be poorer in retirement, wasted billions on the NHS and education with no demonstrable improvements, and useless projects that go nowhere, and people still think he will make a good PM?? We need a forthright opposition that is prepared to speak bluntly and stop trying to keep everyone happy. Things can only get worse.
CA, Manchester, UK
Sir,
I entirely agree with Mr. Mold.
The british people rae still missing Maggie.
ROSS HENRY, LONDON,
They've had 10 years to address numeracy in schools, and have spent a fortune on it already. What excuse can they possibly have for not having 'fixed' it by now?
PR, Cornwall,
Did any of you watch C4 dispatches last night? My god, Gordon was savaged by the entire government essentially and this guy is supposed to be running the country?
I think there really needs to be a plan B.
Jesse, Bromley,,
My definition of a strong leader is determined by his actions in preparing a Country for the arrows and slings of outrageous wars. When you consider that this man has reduced the level of our army and navy to a banana republic
by his swingeing cuts and our heroic troops are reduced to begging , borrowing or buying their own gear and are fighting with sub standard often obsolete equipment because of the same cuts - Is this a strong Leader -I think not.
philip, Ipswich,
Yes you can't accuse Cameron of 'poncing around in fron of the cameras' can you? Oh, hang on....
I think in a straight fight between a serious politician who has run the economy successfully for 10 years, and a poshboy PR luvvie who has only recently decided he is a 'moderniser' these polls will narrow even further.
Tom, London,
Mr Brown's poll findings would be even better if he could stop this incessant rain which began at his leadership bid launch last thursday !
william grierson, Kimpton, UK
Considering all the media manupilation and spin for Brown these last few days, his poll rating should have been a lot higher.
Sounds like a new brave world, in fact, like heaven on earth, that Mr. Brown is going to bring on. Where was he the last 10 years?
Who was responsible for the higher and higher taxes, not to mention the rest of the dog's dinner serve to us.
Well, I suppose he wasn't really part of the Labour government the last 10 years, so he cannot be blamed for the indescribable mess we are now in.
P Stewrt, Kent, UK
Is anyone surprised that Brown has gone up in the polls? Loads of TV appearances to reassure us what a nice chap he is, and he had absolutely nothing to do with previous failed Labour policies in the NHS, Crime, Immigration etc. And more than a little positive coverage from the Murdoch media.
Tony G, Harrogate, UK
Come on Scottish Nationalists - England needs you!
CA, Manchester, UK
Some boost both Brown and Cameron are r ted below TB who according to the polls was a dead duck PM. As for things getting better do people really believe Brown is going to take his hand out of their pocket and give them some of their own money back for a change,I very much doult it.
Cameron he loves having photo taken after that there's nothing to the man or his policies.This counrty will miss TB when he's gone just as it missed M Thatcher.
Dave, Mold, Flintshire
The country must be doomed; on the one hand 'More voters think that things will get better rather than worse under Mr Brown than Tony Blaire'. On the other 'nearly half the public, 47 per cent, think that taxation levels will get worse'. We have already had tax increases that have reduced competitivity and are at their highest levels for decades without commensurate improvements in public services, so why on earth will more of the same have the faintest of impacts. Collective madness or touching faith in head banging?
Alan Tayler, Wivelsfield, East Sussex
Given Brown's famous hesitancy and cowardice (where IS he when things go wrong?) in the face of bad news, it will take but one crisis to expose his failings as PM.
Paul Hughes, oxford, Oxon
Things will be better under Brown? Well they do say its possible to fool some of the people some of the time.
While Brown has been pouncing around in front of the cameras, Cameron has at least been out there listening to people.
John Pickworth, Blackpool, UK