David Cameron is not having it all his own way. The latest Populus poll for The Times suggests that the Tories are stuck. They did very well, but not spectacularly, in the local elections – halfway there, as Francis Maude put it. They stay ahead but are not making any more progress. And Mr Cameron’s personal rating is slipping.

The Tories are shown unchanged over the past month at 37 per cent, in the same 37 to 39 per cent range they have been for the past year. At this point in the 1992-97 Parliament, the Labour Opposition was on 42 per cent and was never below 44 per cent for the rest of the Parliament. By contrast, Labour is now on 33 per cent, up four points on a month ago, largely at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, on 17 per cent, down three points. Since the poll was taken over the weekend there could be a combination of a Blair halo-effect (relief mixed with regret) and an early Gordon Brown bounce. At this stage in 1992-97, the Tories were on 30 per cent. So they are not yet doing as well as new Labour in the mid1990s and Labour not as badly as the Major Government.

However, the Tories led by Mr Cameron continue to come out well on a match-up with Labour under Mr Brown on a hypothetical voting intention question: at 42 to 32 per cent, against 41 to 30 per cent last month. This is the main support for Tory hopes.

However, the poll suggests that Mr Brown is seen as more of a leader, and stronger than Mr Cameron. The leader index, measuring how good a leader is on a 0 to 10 scale, puts Mr Brown on 5, against 4.95 for Mr Cameron, down from 5.11 in January, the lowest level of his 17-month leadership. His rating is 6.54 among Tory voters, against 6.96 for Mr Brown amongst Labour supporters. By contrast, Mr Blair has jumped since January from 4.69 to 5.22, and among Labour voters from 7.03 to 7.57. As Margaret Thatcher found in 1990, there is nothing like resignation to boost your ratings.

Moreover, Mr Brown is rated by 34 per cent as being strong, with Mr Cameron in third place on 19 per cent. Mr Brown lags on being charismatic, on 9 per cent, against 28 per cent for Mr Cameron, and 31 per cent for Mr Blair.

The Tory leader is ahead of Mr Brown on caring about the problems of ordinary people (by 21 to 17 per cent), on being likeable (by 30 to 13 per cent) and on being in touch with modern Britain (by 31 to 15 per cent) and they tie at 23 per cent each on having what it takes to be a good prime minister. So we are faced with a battle of strength versus caring.

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