David Cracknell, Political Editor
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MOST ordinary Labour party members want Gordon Brown to distance Britain from America and also to increase the top rate of tax to 50%, according to a poll for The Sunday Times.
The YouGov survey of more than 1,600 party members and trade unionists entitled to vote in this month’s deputy leadership contest shows that the grassroots would like the next prime minister to shift leftwards in the battle against the Tories, ahead of the next general election.
Although Brown is unlikely to agree to such demands, the survey goes some way to explaining why the candidates to succeed John Prescott as deputy leader of the party have lurched to the left in recent days.
The poll found that two-thirds of party members want Brown to “publicly distance Britain from President Bush’s policies in the Middle East”, and to increase the top rate of income tax to 50% for those earning more than £100,000 a year.
Almost 60% want Brown to “slow down and fundamentally rethink the strategy for ‘Blairite’ reforms of health, education and the other public services”, and to renationalise the railways even if this means putting up taxes.
With all four proposals, the figures for trade union support are even higher than for ordinary party members. Although Brown is unopposed for the leadership and is set to take over from Tony Blair on June 27, the views of the grassroots and union members are significant.
Labour’s system of voting by electoral college means that ordinary party members, trade unions and MPs each count for a third of the share of the votes.
According to the survey, there is also widespread support for “green” measures, such as increasing the taxes on flying and motoring and using the money to cut bus, train and Tube fares.
A large majority favour giving councils more power to introduce incentives and penalties on rubbish disposal to encourage more recycling by households.
Party members are not left wing on all issues. Most would back a law to allow terrorist suspects to be held for 90 days, rather than today’s 28-day limit. Brown has already pledged support for this. Only one in three of those surveyed wants all grammar schools to be abolished.
Party members are divided on nuclear power, nuclear weapons and identity cards and on whether to withdraw British troops from Iraq “as soon as possible”. They are also divided on the controversial proposals put forward by Margaret Hodge, the trade and industry minister and MP for Barking, where the British National party made significant gains in last year’s London borough elections.
A total of 47% agree with her that British-born people should be given a higher priority in the allocation of social housing, while 41% oppose this idea. Among trade unionists the support is more emphatic, with 55% in favour of the policy while just 35% oppose it.
Meanwhile, Alan Johnson, the education secretary, is nosing into the lead among Labour activists for the deputy leadership.
Johnson has overtaken Hilary Benn, the international development secretary, whose support among the party grassroots appears to have been seeping away since the start of campaigning. The YouGov survey finds that Benn has lost a third of his grassroots support since the campaign to succeed Prescott began three weeks ago.
The mood of the party’s membership is significantly to the left of the government on taxation, public sector reform and relations with Bush.
Among party members, Benn has seen his 17-point lead in late April vanish. He and Johnson now have 24% each of the first preferences. Among trade union levy-payers the 14-point lead that Benn had before Easter has been reversed, with Johnson now taking a four-point lead.
When the loyalties of MPs are taken into account, Johnson enjoys 24% first round support, against 20% for Benn. Harriet Harman, the justice minister, is third on 18%.
Peter Hain is vying for fourth spot with Jon Cruddas, the only nonminister standing. Both men have 14% support. Cruddas has seen his support among trade union members rise sharply since March, from 9% to 15%. Hazel Blears, the party chairman, is last with 10% overall.
To win outright on the first count, one candidate would need to exceed 50%. On these figures no candidate comes close. In the count, the least popular candidates will be eliminated in turn. Their supporters’ second and, if necessary, third preferences will then come into play. There is no sign among grassroots members and trade unionists that any candidate has enough second preference support to beat Johnson.
For Johnson to be defeated there has to be a further shift of grassroots opinion, although this is not impossible. Comparing the views of almost 600 party members who were surveyed both last week and one month ago, YouGov found that opinions are volatile: more than one in three have changed their minds about whom to support.
Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, said: “Johnson has recently enjoyed what American candidates call the ‘big mo’, the momentum of rising support. If he can sustain it, he will win the race to be Labour’s new deputy leader.
“If Johnson does slip back, it could be because his views are not sufficiently left wing. Past YouGov surveys have found party members to be broadly loyal to Tony Blair’s brand of centrist politics. There are clear signs that party members and levy-paying trade unions want Gordon Brown’s administration to tilt to the left.”
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