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The prospect of Gordon Brown taking over as prime minister has narrowed the Conservative poll lead to just two points, its lowest for nine months, according to a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times (read the poll in full).
Compared with a month ago Labour is up one at 35%, the Tories down one at 37% and the Liberal Democrats down one at 14%, with other parties also on 14%.
Excluding the short-lived bounce Labour enjoyed when Tony Blair gave his farewell speech to his party conference last September, the Tory lead is back where it was when David Cameron took over as leader at the end of 2005. His honeymoon appears to be over while Brown’s may be beginning.
Asked about how they rated Brown and Cameron on a range of qualities, the Conservative leader came off second best on most. Brown was easily ahead on “sticking to his principles” (49%-19%); being strong (44%-11%); and being decisive (38%-12%). He also had a small lead on honesty (23%-18%).
Cameron, in contrast, stood out only on being charismatic; 30% said he was, against only 4% for Brown. In the Brown camp, where the decision has been taken not to try to compete with Cameron in the charisma stakes, these results will be regarded as reassuring. Asked whether they agreed with Blair’s description of Brown as a “big clunking fist”, only 35% of voters agreed.
For the Conservatives and their new director of communications Andy Coulson the challenge is to show that their man has weight and gravitas as well as an attractive public image.
Brown won when people were asked who they would prefer to share a foxhole with in the face of enemy gunfire. Cameron was ahead in the “agony aunt” stakes: more people said they would want to take a problem to him than Brown.
Voters think Brown should test his standing in the country at the earliest opportunity. By 53% to 35% they think the fact that he became Labour leader in waiting unopposed means he has no mandate to govern the country. A bigger majority, 57% to 32%, thinks he should call a general election within six months of becoming prime minister.
On policy, voters split on traditional lines. Cameron is seen as more trusted than Brown on immigration and law and order. Brown is more trusted on the NHS, education and relations with the European Union. Despite 10 years as chancellor in which the tax burden has increased significantly, Brown is more trusted on taxation.
But there could be bad news on the way for Brown on the economy. After four interest rate hikes from the Bank of England since last August, and the promise of more to come, 27% of people say their finances have been squeezed.
YouGov also asked about the smoking ban in pubs, clubs, restaurants and other public buildings that will take effect in England on July 1 (read the poll in full). The poll suggests that, despite complaints from smokers and some businesses, there is overwhelming public support for the ban. By 77% to 20% people approved. Support for outlawing smoking in enclosed public places is strongest among women and young people of both sexes.
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