Tony Blair has done Gordon Brown one last favour. By staying on to negotiate the draft EU treaty, he has removed a time-consuming problem from Mr Brown’s in-tray and given him a chance to play a more active and positive role in the EU. Nonsense, argue Eurosceptics and most Tories: Mr Blair has handed his successor a political timebomb.

There are three distinct questions: first, the merits of the deal; second, whether it justifies a referendum; and, third, whether the denial of a referendum will hurt Mr Brown.

For some, the draft treaty is a betrayal, the surrender of British independence and a step towards a superstate. That seems over the top.

My reading of the confusing 31 pages of conclusions points, rather, to a messy series of compromises. Mr Blair is correct that the transfer of powers is less than in previous treaties, notably the Single European Act agreed by the Thatcher Government. But the various opt-outs may not be as watertight as Mr Blair claims and will probably be tested in the courts. The four “red lines” were always intended to define the summit in terms from which Mr Blair could claim victory.

Whether the draft requires a referendum is not an absolute matter. Mr Blair’s distinction between a constitutional and an amending treaty looks more like a neat rationalisation rather than an issue of principle. However, he has a point that the Tories did not call for a referendum on EU treaties before 1997. Unfortunately, we do not have clear conventions about when referendums should be held.

Put aside the sound and fury, will the denial of a referendum damage Labour? Several polls have shown overwhelming support for a referendum on a treaty that gives extra powers to the EU. Stated in these terms, referendums are always widely backed.

But Europe has always been double-edged for the Tories. As Mr Blair said yesterday, playing a strongly Eurosceptic card has not done them any good at the last three elections. The party has been on the side of voters, but talking about Europe has reminded the public of all the bitterness and divisions of the past 15 years, and so has been a net minus.

David Cameron wants the bonus of being on the popular side of the referendum argument without all the negative associations. The risk is that playing the Eurosceptic card will distract attention from his attempt to reposition the party.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown believe that Mr Cameron is going through the motions, demanding a referendum to keep the sceptics happy but unlikely to carry on with a sustained, high-profile campaign.

This still leaves Mr Brown with awkward decisions of timing on when to push through the necessary legislation. My hunch is that, for all the public’s doubts, this treaty will not derail the Brown premiership.

Times Recommends

• What makes the perfect mum?
• To keep me stress-free, no more awareness days, please
• What do lottery winners buy?