Peter Riddell Political Briefing
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Tony Blair has done Gordon Brown one last favour. By staying on to negotiate the draft EU treaty, he has removed a time-consuming problem from Mr Brown’s in-tray and given him a chance to play a more active and positive role in the EU. Nonsense, argue Eurosceptics and most Tories: Mr Blair has handed his successor a political timebomb.
There are three distinct questions: first, the merits of the deal; second, whether it justifies a referendum; and, third, whether the denial of a referendum will hurt Mr Brown.
For some, the draft treaty is a betrayal, the surrender of British independence and a step towards a superstate. That seems over the top.
My reading of the confusing 31 pages of conclusions points, rather, to a messy series of compromises. Mr Blair is correct that the transfer of powers is less than in previous treaties, notably the Single European Act agreed by the Thatcher Government. But the various opt-outs may not be as watertight as Mr Blair claims and will probably be tested in the courts. The four “red lines” were always intended to define the summit in terms from which Mr Blair could claim victory.
Whether the draft requires a referendum is not an absolute matter. Mr Blair’s distinction between a constitutional and an amending treaty looks more like a neat rationalisation rather than an issue of principle. However, he has a point that the Tories did not call for a referendum on EU treaties before 1997. Unfortunately, we do not have clear conventions about when referendums should be held.
Put aside the sound and fury, will the denial of a referendum damage Labour? Several polls have shown overwhelming support for a referendum on a treaty that gives extra powers to the EU. Stated in these terms, referendums are always widely backed.
But Europe has always been double-edged for the Tories. As Mr Blair said yesterday, playing a strongly Eurosceptic card has not done them any good at the last three elections. The party has been on the side of voters, but talking about Europe has reminded the public of all the bitterness and divisions of the past 15 years, and so has been a net minus.
David Cameron wants the bonus of being on the popular side of the referendum argument without all the negative associations. The risk is that playing the Eurosceptic card will distract attention from his attempt to reposition the party.
Mr Blair and Mr Brown believe that Mr Cameron is going through the motions, demanding a referendum to keep the sceptics happy but unlikely to carry on with a sustained, high-profile campaign.
This still leaves Mr Brown with awkward decisions of timing on when to push through the necessary legislation. My hunch is that, for all the public’s doubts, this treaty will not derail the Brown premiership.
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A majority of the Dutch parliament is now in favour of holding a referendum on the latest reincarnation of the European constitution. (Pvda, Pvv, Sp, GroenLinks & D66 parties.) The Dutch prime minister (Balkenende) is desperately trying to peddle the same limp excuse for not consulting the electorate as his counterpart in the Uk - i.e. the new treaty is not the same as the old constitution as a few sentences have been tweaked... Hopefully the Dutch will get the ball rolling on this and give it the same thumbs down (or fingers up) as before. Then our Gawd Brwn might realize what 'listening to the people' really means... (Expat, 18 years in the Netherlands.)
Jon Kingdon, Lelystad, The Netherlands
The problem is the politicians can't explain to the voters the actual issues that are at stake here. It's a new cold war emerging. While Cameron is now attacking Blair on this point he would do the exact same thing had it been his call. There is no politician in the EU that would dare present the actual significance to the voters, none of them dare say "we intend to compete with the US in most economic areas including oil trade and weapons production, but for that to work we need to be more efficient" because of the uproar that would cause in Washington.
Andrej, Ljubljana, Slovenia
It seems to me that we are approaching decision time for the British people regarding Europe. It's about two visions (and not two-speed) Europe that we are talking about, one being a trade and economic block, the other about a philosophy of countries who have spent centuring killing and massacring each other, deciding to live by certain values of democracy and human rights, and to form a political union.
The UK has already effectively decided not to join a political union, by not adopting the Euro, a centre-piece of political union.
So, why not have a referendum about either adopting the Euro, or leaving the European Union, and negotiate a trade treaty. This would be the same as the UK's position in 1968 within EFTA, with a trade agreement with the then Common Market.
Besides, there's nothing like going forwards backwards.
Clive Hole, Paris
Clive Hole, Mareil-Marly, France
I am getting tired of the disingenuousness of those calling for a referendum. They know only too well that the answer will be "no", for all the wrong reasons that led the French and Dutch to say "no". In the French case it was "no" to a Europe that France no longer dominated. A British "no" would be "no" to a Europe which the British have never been enthusiastic about. What responsible UK politicians should be saying is, "OK, if we have a referendum and the majority says 'no', then the eventual withdrawal of the UK from the EU will be inevitable. Is that what you really want? If you do, what would you have us do instead? Join the N. American free-trade area? Go it alone like Norway and Switzerland?" Put bluntly like that would be like saying to an errant husband, "OK, make your mind up - is it the wife or is it the girlfriend - because you can't have both". I am no Euro-enthusiast, but I know what we should do: stick with the wife...
J.Fletcher, Canterbury, UK
It is irrelevant that the Tories did not call for a referendum on EU treaties before 1997.The point is that Labour,Conservatives and the Liberal party all promised a referendum this time.Ireland have said that this treaty is 90 per cent the same as the rejected constitution (with which they are happy) so please do not claim that it is a minor matter.Brown should view this as an opportunity to show that he can be trusted,unlike his predecessor,and that his new Labour honours its promises.
COLIN , Hong Kong,
While you trot out the opium line - relax, it's only fuss - the true lines of the treaty are there to be read by anyone who wants to see them. If Cameron does not have the guts for the sustained, hard campaign we must now have to overthrow this appalling con trick treaty pulled by Blair, someone else will and voters will turn to the BNP and UKIP. Doesn't anyone remember the words 'weapons of mass destruction'? We weren't supposed to bother our little heads about that either.
Helen, Northants,
I'm as skeptical as they come, but I don't see the same problems here as you do.
If Blair's read lines hold up, then the principle of a two-speed Europe has been established, core countries can pursue their integration, and we can concentrate on free trade and stay out of their discussions.
If Blair's red lines are challenged in court and the challenge succeeds, then that will be a significant transfer of power that needs to be confirmed by a referendum.
As Churchill once said, referenda have a place in British politics, and that is when there is a decision that politicians cannot or will not take. Here is a good example. No referendum if the red lines hold up, but a referendum if the red lines fail and the British public has to decide what to do next.
I would not want to be Brown in a General Election with no red lines and no backing from a referendum. The Election would simply become the referendum, and he would be finished.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US
Maybe....events dear boy! If Ireland holds a referendum, it will be damaging but Brown may be able to shrug off...small country, consitutional differences with the UK....anyone else e.g. The Netherlands holding one, then not holding a referendum in the UK will become untenable.
Mike, Brighton,
But surely we simply cannot go on having a new treaty every few years which transfers yet more powers to the EU without the people having a say. Each time we are told 'it is not a fundamental change' but together the Single European Act, Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and the latest reform treaty do represent fundamental change (about 140 vetoes lost in all, including 40 in this latest treaty).
Merkel, Barrosso, Ahern and many others have said that this treaty is 90%+ similar to the constitution. Given the manifesto commitment of all parties to hold a referendum on the constitution, given the overwhelming support for a referendum among the voters, given polls indicating people oppose the transfer of more powers to the EU, given that our elected Parliament will be impotent in more areas, given that this gives greater power to the executive to vote on matters in our name behind closed doors rather than putting them to Parliament, is it not clear that democracy requires a referendum.
Tim, UK,
It is irrelevant that the Tories did not call for a referendum on EU treaties before 1997.The point is that Labour,Conservatives and the Liberal party all promised a referendum this time.Ireland have said that this treaty is 90 per cent the same as the rejected constitution (with which they are happy).Brown should view this as an opportunity to show that he can be trusted,unlike his predecessor,and that his new Labour honours its promises.
COLIN , Hong Kong,