A high-risk experiment in Cameroonian politics is under way in the West London constituency where Gordon Brown will face his first electoral test in 13 days’ time.

The Ealing Southall by-election, caused by the death of Piara Khabra, is widely seen to be Labour’s to lose, with an 11,440 majority, longstanding party ties to the community and the Conservatives, who run the council, in third place at the last general election.

But a wildcard choice by the Tories could change that. Ten days ago Tony Lit, a 34-year-old Sikh businessman, was not even a member of the Conservative Party. When he became the surprise candidate, opposition parties assumed that he would be a gift, living over the constituency boundary and coming from a dynasty worth £75 million (according to The Sunday Times rich list) in contrast to most of the voters he hopes to represent.

Mr Lit was parachuted into frontline Tory politics by Francis Maude in one of his last acts as party chair before being demoted. Like so many recent decisions of the Tory high command, the move was greeted with horror by the grassroots and Brij Moham Gupta, the deputy chairman of the local party, promptly defected to the Liberal Democrats.

So why has David Cameron, who visited last week and will be back next week, personally tied himself to such a high-risk candidate who – even yesterday – was criticising the late Mr Khabra’s record as an MP?

The reason was easy to see yesterday among the sari shops and vegetable stalls on Broadway, the main shopping street in Southall. As Mr Lit walked down the road, people rushed out to meet him and gave him the thumbs up through shop windows. He has charisma, is well groomed and appears to be expensively tailored.

He easily eclipsed Ken Clarke, the Tory grandee who had turned up to lend his support, suggesting that the Tory leader’s big tent approach to candidate selection – particularly in a constituency where 62 per cent of voters are from ethnic minorities – may pay dividends.

Richa Shokeen, 19, from Sheba’s fashion store, is typical of those who would have voted Labour if it wasn’t for Mr Lit. “Tony Lit deserves it,” she said. “I have known him for so long. I worked at Madhu’s restaurant where Sunrise was always doing charity work. I have always voted Labour but he is really good as a person.” Mr Lit is well known because of his role running Sunrise, Britain’s first 24-hour Asian radio station. Both the station and the other parts of his business empire, which includes a brewery, make him a force in the area.

Mr Lit has an arresting pitch to the members of the Sikh and Hindu communities who have voted in a Labour MP in every election since 1945. “The ideas and ideals of the Conservative Party could have been written by an Asian,” he told The Times yesterday. “They are into family values, civil liberties and people knowing best for themselves. That is conservatism, that’s what they are.”

The Liberal Democrats splutter at the suggestion that the Tories are the principal challengers at this election, after they came second in the 2005 general election. The party’s talented election supremo, Chris Rennard, has taken charge.

But this campaign is being fought by the same candidate as in 2005, Nigel Bakhai, and the party has little presence on the local council. Although they are campaigning on crime and transport – the same as the Tories – Liberal Democrat MPs privately suggest that Mr Bakhai may not be the strongest of candidates.

Labour, meanwhile, has got off to a weak start, with internal divisions in the local party, the late selection of a candidate and unhappiness with the role of the high command.

On Wednesday night, a week after the starting gun on the election was fired, Labour announced that its candidate would be the Indian-born Virendra Sharma, a long-serving local councillor and school governor. He was selected in a ballot of constituency Labour Party members.

Mr Sharma, a Hindu, is a day services manager for people with learning disabilities in the London Borough of Hillingdon.

But there were problems locally with the way he was chosen. Mr Khabra’s legacy was meant to be an all-woman shortlist, but Labour headquarters presented the 1,800-strong local party with just two names – both men – prompting hectoring at a hustings on Tuesday.

One Labour figure who knows the local party well said: “There has always been residual discontent [in Ealing Southall Labour Party] and based on conversations in the last couple of days, I don’t think it’s going to be entirely straightforward.”

However, the Government’s ability to control the timing of the by-election may play decisively into Labour’s hands. The party will benefit from the shortest possible campaign duration, lasting just three weeks, to prevent the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats from having enough time to undermine its lead.

Last time around

Result in 2005

Lab 22,937 (up 1.3%)
Lib Dem 11,497 (+14.4%)
Con 10,147 (+3.3%)
Lab swing to LD 6.6%

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