Francis Elliott and Greg Hurst
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Gordon Brown has secretly ordered a review of Labour’s organisation and instructed allies to begin raising funds as part of preparations for a general election this autumn.
A leading party official told The Times yesterday that Mr Brown had placed Labour on notice for a poll that could be held as soon as this October.
Martin Salter, a vice-chairman of the Labour Party, said: “I can confirm that the party has been put on alert for an early election that could take place as soon as this autumn.”
Private negotiations with Labour’s leading donors and its bankers have already started, in the clearest sign yet that Mr Brown is seriously considering taking advantage of a surge in the party’s opinion polls since he took office.
Labour hopes that speculation about an early election will heap pressure on David Cameron at a time when his leadership is coming under daily attack from his own side. The prospects of a poll this October should also help fundraising as well as ensure Labour’s own discipline, Mr Brown’s allies admit.
Nevertheless, Mr Brown – mindful of the need to maintain the credibility of the threat –has begun to take the concrete steps needed to pave the way for an autumn poll.
The Prime Minister ordered a complete review of Labour’s organisation before leaving for Washington this week. He has also stepped up the preparation of the party’s election manifesto, according to senior party figures.
Labour MPs are being told to spend the summer working on local campaigning before a national offensive against Mr Cameron’s Conservatives.
“The finances aren’t there yet but there are all sorts of discreet talks going on with bankers about loans and with donors about bringing forward cash they might have given next year to this,” said one senior Brown ally.
The key challenge for Labour in an autumn election would not be raising money, even though Labour still has debts of £25 million, but in recruiting experienced staff, selecting candidates and approving the manifesto in such a tight timetable, party insiders said. Labour has already bought sophisticated campaigning computer software to identify voters and communicate with members.
Donors have started to reemerge after Mr Brown’s move to No 10 and the announcement that no charges are to be brought after the police inquiry into cash-for-honours allegations, which scared off potential financial backers. Senior party figures are confident that more will follow as an election approaches, although they believe Mr Brown would prefer a mixture of private donors, unions and larger proportion of small donors, rather than relying on a few wealthy businessmen or union leaders to underwrite a campaign.
More pressing is the hiring of new staff with political experience, after a financial crisis, following the 2005 general election, forced Labour to cut its headcount from 291 to 158 last year. Job losses were particularly severe in regional offices, and staff are exhausted after preparing for May’s elections, running the leadership and deputy leadership elections and last month’s by-elections in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield.
“We would need to probably double in size, especially out there in the regions where they are really severely understaffed. Some offices are really shell offices,” one Labour source told The Times. “We would need to staff up pretty fast. It is not like banking. You need a level of institutionalised knowledge in the way to run an election. And people [being hired] have to give notice.”
A fast-track procedure would have to be imposed by the party’s national executive committee to replace the normal system for selecting parliamentary candidates and would require intense activity to be complete by October.
Similarly, Labour’s policymaking process would have to be truncated and a new process imposed for agreeing the party’s election manifesto, which would risk protests from local activists and from trade unions, who extracted a series of concessions towards the end of the previous Parliament in the so-called Warwick agreement. Their role in considering policy through Labour’s “partnership in power” procedure would be replaced by a series of rapid and probably tense negotiations over controversial parts of the manifesto.
Labour’s annual report, published last week, showed that membership had fallen to 182,370 at the end of last year. Party sources said it fell further to a low of about 177,000 before climbing slightly before the process to choose a new leader and deputy leader to about 180,000.
The party has begun to repay the £14 million in secret loans from wealthy supporters it used to underwrite its 2005 election campaign and in April paid back the £1 million including interest lent by Sir Christopher Evans, the biotech entrepreneur, who was one of those arrested during the police inquiry into cash-for-honours allegations. Labour has begun to repay Gordon Crawford, who lent £500,000, but party sources said that the remainder of lenders had agreed to reschedule their loans for later repayment.
Oct 18
–– Election day if Brown announces at the Labour Party conference that there is to be an autumn election. The standard general election gives 17 working days between the formal dissolution of Parliament and polling day
–– If, however, he chooses to wait a week and announces it as David Cameron is addressing the Conservative Party’s annual conference, polling day could be October 25
*Source: Election Timetables, House of Commons Standard Note, February 7, 2005
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Forget all the spin and hype, there shall be an early election despite what is being said within New Labour.
With the advent of a phased withdrawal from Basra, the events dictate when the election would actually be.
It is another progressive step for Gordon and to my view he can win the next term in office.
The campaign teams need to be in overdrive in the next few weeks to deal with the election work load.
This is the only window of opportunity that New Labour has to win the next term in office if they want to call a snap election.
The Director, LONDON, England
No way will Brown go to the polls in Autumn.
He hasn't got the guts !
When did Gordon Brown ever take a gamble ?
When was Gordon Brown ever decisive ?
He is Mr prudent remember.
The Cameron's Tories could go for four vital issues alone;
1, referendum on EU.
2. National pride
3. Social justice.
4. Immigration
All the things the Labour shower have taken from us.
maggie Millington, Brittany, France
I cannot beleive that what we have witnessed over the past few years is democracy. No one surely wants the man who stole our future pensions and caused all those companies to close their final salary pension fund schemes to have another 4 - 5 years to stuff everything else. He is, like Blair the ultimate con-artist.
What worries me almost as much is the ineffectual Cameron. I say bring back Hague.. he can at least finish Brown this time if the Conservative Party stops bickering.
GET BROWN OUT.!!!!!
Paul, Halstead,
Would like to see the back of him and his nation wreckers as soon as possible but...
I really think I will be voting for Mr Brown, for the sole purpose of him inheriting the mess he has created. No opposition would really want to inherit new labours mess would they?
B Rubal, Avon, UK
".......THE Australian fallout from the sub-prime loan crisis in the US worsened substantially last night after Macquarie Bank revealed that retail investors faced losses of up to 25 per cent in two of Macquarie's high-yield investment funds......"
With the fall out from the Sub Prime market (of which we have none over here of course), he would be well advised to go in November!
Pete Balchin, Solicitor, Bristol, UK
£26,000,000 in debt, how are they going to fund this campaign?
'Commercial' loans at 0% interest?
Can someone tell me where I can get one of these as my bank doesn't seem to do them.
Clark, Gen., Switz.
I am confident that should Brown go for an early election he will definitely get the message from the motorist,the council tax payer, the pensioner without a pension,etc etc
Philip, Ipswich,
Bring it on Gordon, the SNP will have a field day in Scotland. What a laugh if Labour get a minority and have to depend on the SNP to govern
Brian, Glenrothes, Fife
I would expect Labour's strategists to pick the time when they think that the economy, or how it is viewed by the electorate, will be at its strongest.
There are reasons to think that it's downhill from here for house prices, equities and disposable income etc., so expect them to go for it; soon.
TSG, Romsey,
basically, Brown knows the economy has now turned. We are going to follow the US into a deep recession in the next year or two. House prices are collapsing in the States and economic growth weakening on the back of maxed out consumers and corporates. We are about 12 months behind them, and after 5 or 6 interest rates and 2 million people shortly to come off fixed rate home loans, the writing is now on the wall for everyone to see. Gordon knows this is his last chance. I'm a Tory and hope the Tories will lose , Labour will take the blame for the coming economic implosion and the Tories can sweep to power and clear up the mess from 2011.
James , London , UK
I cannot understand how people say "Tories are in no position to do well.."
How on earth can anyone vote for Labour with their consideration to change the constitution to ensure Conservatives will never be in power again.
Labour ARE the party that 1984 was based upon, also just look at the mess they make in managing projects and large departments.
There is only one way to remove Labour and thats vote Conservative, moaning will not do any good.
Aub, London,
One senses that for Gordon Brown is showing an element of haste in all of this.
That he can see a time-window of very limited duration in which to have a snap-General election before things can turn and start to get worse?
In which case just one unforeseen obstacle has to spring-up unexpectedly and his whole band-wagon is de-railed?
Michael Blatchford, Bath, UK
Since Labour is bust this won't happen. However if a couple of idiot disaffected Tories no-one has ever heard of then wobble some of Browns toadies in the media will yell "Cameron in Trouble". Look how the BBC tried to build up an ex-local-counsellor and failed candidate who demanded a peerage as a Shock Horror story. This is old machine politics and although it plays well with parts of the media I think the public are repelled by it - like the Quentin Davis defection.
NBeale, London, England
A week is a long time in politics. Three months is not.
The forecasters must be telling him that three years from now the economy could be looking dreadful, and he would be trapped into a period of decline and difficulty, as the chickens come hom to roost. I don't think Brown wants an early election at all. But it could be the least bad option for him.
It could be that his best monent has already gone, and that had he gone to the polls straight away he'd have won hands down. His lead is already slipping away.
Henry Curteis, LONDON,
Unfortunately after Brown's Boom and Bust years, he is a winner one way or the other. If the Conservatives do get in, they will inherit an economy sinking fast, and on top of that, one that the vast majority thinks is unsinkable. He is on a no lose! Only the power of running the country (albeit badly).
I half think Labour should win or we will be stuck with them for the next 15 years after that, and never be trusted again.
Dan, Nottingham,
Stuart, George Canning lasted only 119 days as PM in 1827. Brown would pass him on 25 October, so he might as well wait till then.
Nick, London,
I just wonder how many times a looming economic disaster was predicted by Gordon Brown's enemies when he was Chancellor... Wishful thinking then, and now.
Stewart, London,
Here...
Come...
The..
DRUMS!
Mark grindell, Shipley, West Yorkshire
The Tories are in no position to fight an election now. It'll be like a heavyweight boxer who's been training for months arranging to fight an opponent in 4 weeks when he's had no preparation.
Brown knows the economy is going belly up and he needs to get it in quick before people wake up and realise how much New Labour have screwed it up over the past decade, and have been papering over the cracks by fiddling inflation figures.
Chris, London,
he knows that the 'miracle economy' was nothing but a farce and is about to collapse under rising interest rates, soaring inflation and record debt - quick, call an election before someone notices!!
john, leeds,
Currently he looks like he'd win. He has the economy on his side. Wait until he has to call an election and he may well lose.
phil, sacramento, California
For the sake of Freedom and democracy that my grandparents helped fight for in World War 2 for me to have, and others paid the ultimate price for and died for in WW2, only for New Labour to steal them under their fake "war on terror"... New Labour MUST be defeated at any forthcoming general election. The future of the subjugated English relies on it.
Michael, Dover,
I hope Brown does go for mid-October election.
If he does I thinks he will increase Labours Majority.
Alan of Hastings, Hastings, England
For the sake of Freedom and democracy that my grandparents helped fight for in World War 2 for me to have, and others paid the ultimate price for and died for in WW2, only for New Labour to steal them under their fake "war on terror"... New Labour MUST be defeated at any forthcoming general election. The future of the subjugated English relies on it.
Michael, Dover,
Raising funds, eh? How much would a 'Sir' be worth?
Raising funds,eh? How much would a 'Sir' be worth?
If selling titles is no longer allowed, may I recommend a private equity takeover of the government - same amount of transparency but more efficient.
john problem, harpenden,
I have my voting card ready and would be delighted to help Mr Brown enter the record books for the shortest serving PM in UK history.
stuart, london, surrey
He is getting out to avoid the impending property crash .Whatever you say about Gordon he is an intelligent man and has a good idea of what is coming.
graham broadley, perth, wa
I don't believe for one minute that Brown will take the gamble.He has waited so long for his current job,he won't have the guts to put it on the llne.
If he does,he will lose.
Michael Rigby, Blackburn, England